LIVERPOOL were supposed to be experiencing a dip around about now. That was the expectation of pretty much everyone, as Arne Slot’s new mandate took immediate effect.
For sure, it was extremely impressive how the Dutch coach had quickly installed greater control over chaos, all while changing the sparkplugs in a number of key personnel. And it was nigh-on mind-blowing just how complete Liverpool looked as a consequence, as they gobbled up the points from the get-go.
Just wait though. That’s what a wide range of footballing sages said. Just wait until injuries kick in. Or opposition managers figure out how to deal with a seemingly passive mid-block that suddenly explodes into four players darting behind enemy lines the moment that possession is gained.
Should either of those probable set-backs fail to occur, the fixture schedule would eventually get them. Over Christmas and around the New Year. That’s when their flaws would be exposed, this team that simply had to have flaws what with undertaking a different approach and being under new management.
This supposition was espoused in every pub and publication across the UK and was of course accompanied by another. That it would be Manchester City who would capitalize.
Here’s the thing though. Ignoring City’s remarkable collapse here’s still the thing. In Liverpool opening nine games they accrued 2.4 points per 90 and scored 1.8 goals per 90. In their most recent nine that has improved to 2.5 points and a hefty 3.1 goals.
They’re not declining. There is no sign of a dip. In fact, they’re just getting better.
Backing Liverpool/Liverpool for this Sunday’s clash is a shout at 8/11
Naturally so much of this refining of excellence stems from Mo Salah, a player who is reaching Messi levels on a regular basis in 2024/25.
Indeed, not focusing on the Egyptian King right now when putting together a betting preview involving Liverpool would be akin to interviewing Neil Armstrong and omitting any mention of the moon.
The 32-year-old’s goal and brace of assists against West Ham this week has taken him to 30 goal involvements quicker than anyone before. He has both scored and assisted in 44.4% of his league outings this season and averaged a strike or assist every 53 minutes.
He is posting numbers that demand a double take. They can’t be right. But they are.
The same goes incidentally for Salah’s track record in this fixture. In his last 12 meetings with Manchester United the human incarnation of a bolt of lightning has fired 15 goals and carved out six assists. Routinely, it is he who shines the harshest, brightest spotlight on a club perpetually in crisis, exposing their frailties for all to see.
Not that his team-mates don’t also excel at this, and this is especially true on Merseyside.
Remarkably, United haven’t scored at Anfield in eight-and-a-half hours of football and once again the narrative has them heading into a lion’s den this Sunday in a somewhat confused state and wearing a t-shirt saying, ‘Bite me’.
“The team is not improving. It is a little bit lost.” That was Ruben Amorim’s grim assessment on Monday evening of an especially grim period that has seen United lose five league games in a calendar month for the first time since 1962.
Their latest loss, a meek surrendering to Newcastle, has plummeted them to 14th in the table and with Amorim persisting with a system that is a poor fit for most of his squad it’s very likely that worse days are to follow.
Yet when you look at the stats it’s fair to say they’re hardly apocalyptic.
In Amorim’s eight league games in charge, United have faced 4.1 shots on target per 90, not a satisfactory number by any stretch but hardly calamitous. The 10.3 shots per 90 they are facing is exactly half of what the Reds were conceding on a weekly basis for a good chunk of last season under Erik Ten Hag.
They have accrued 16 big chances and ceded 16 big chances.
So where do the stats detach from what we’re witnessing at present, a side in disarray, devoid of confidence and lacking in coherency.
For all the talk of their wing-backs not producing enough going forward, and saddled as always with a midfield that can be pedestrian, it is their goalkeeper and finishing up top that are the main problems.
Shipping in 14 goals from 33 accurate shots or headers across Amorim’s brief tenure is a staggeringly bad return from Andre Onana, the keeper clearly struggling and clearly in need of better protection.
This is epitomized by United conceding six goals from corners in recent weeks, where the onus primarily falls on defenders, not the man in nets.
As for scoring at the other end, who is there to do so? Marcus Rashford has been banished and the same goes for Garnacho. Joshua Zirkzee was hauled off after half an hour on Monday, not fit for purpose. Rasmus Hojlund is converting in the league every 446 minutes this term.
All season long, United have accrued a mere 6.4% chance conversion rate, the fifth worst in the top-flight. They have now gone three league games without scoring.
Under 0.5 goals for United tempts at 23/20
It is huge for the visitors that they have Bruno Fernandes and Manuel Ugarte back from suspension this weekend but really how much difference can two players make against a narrative that is long-standing and compelling?
It is a narrative that has a brow-beaten and flailing United head to Anfield and be subjected to an intense 90 minute examination of all their shortcomings.
Liverpool will delight in doing this, and be ruthless is doing so, and frankly the visitors’ best hope is to ride out their luck and emerge with a goalless draw. This they have managed to do four times in the post-Ferguson era.
Failing this, their crisis significantly worsens, and all at the hands of their arch-nemesis.
We’ve seen this play before. It is a plot that is familiar to us. It’s the same as it ever was.
Full time Liverpool, not to BTTS and over 2.5 goals for hosts offers up 27/10
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