BEFORE we get to the magnitude and meaning of this game. Before we delve into Everton’s complicated season and Liverpool’s imperious one to date. Before we marvel at Mo Salah’s numbers, and contrast them with a Toffees front-line that is seemingly allergic to scoring goals.
Before we get to any of that, the fixture itself wants a word. And it’s well worth listening to.
On the last 12 occasions that the Blues have hosted the Reds on their side of Stanley Park, nine of them have ended in a draw. That’s not a statistical quirk. That’s a blooming big siren going off amidst all manner of flashing lights. It’s a warning it would be silly to ignore.
Moreover, six of the 12 finished 0-0.
Now given that this undeniable pattern pre-dates Klopp and eight Everton gaffers, stretching all the way back to 2012, we can safely assume it’s an entrenched trope, one that isn’t going away anytime soon. Furthermore, it’s a trope that isn’t swayed by whoever is in the dug-out and whatever tactics are deployed.
It is therefore to be respected, it being bigger than temporary circumstance.
When stepping back it’s easy to see how this has occurred.
Liverpool have long been the superior team on Merseyside, the clubs last experiencing any sort of parity in the Eighties. Yet they are acutely aware of the ferocity that awaits them each season at Goodison, of football being reduced to warfare.
In the great scheme of things then, they are generally okay with taking a point and moving on.
As for Everton, the perennial underdogs, so fearful are they of losing to their hated neighbours, in front of their fervent clan, a draw becomes the objective, not a compromise. They’ll take it all day long.
For the hosts in particular, this has been the case through recent years and remains the case now, even if Sean Dyche’s men are presently on a high after putting four past Wolves midweek.
Going into the relegation clash desperate for any sort of impetus after firing blanks for four games straight, Everton leaned into their basics, benefiting from an industrious midfield and set-pieces, not to mention going direct at every opportunity. It was telling that all four of their goals derived from free-kicks and corners while their stand-out performer was Orel Mangala, their scrappy loanee who has committed 2.2 fouls per 90 this term.
That’s not say there wasn’t genuine quality on display too. Dwight McNeil’s deliveries are consistently a threat which is how he has created nine big chances in 2024/25. Only five top-flight players have carved out more.
Then there was Iliman Ndiaye, relatively quiet on the night but always hinting at something special. The Senegalese schemer has completed three successful dribbles per 90 since joining from Marseille.
By and large though, this was Everton 101: put the yards in, get the crowd up, gain territory, and capitalize on set-pieces won in the final third.
On Wednesday they did this well. They will need to be perfect at it on Saturday.
Even so, will such a rudimentary approach overly trouble Liverpool? As stated above, it has done in the past, several times over, but this does feel like a different incarnation making the very short journey to Goodison.
What we have now is a more measured Liverpool under Arne Slot, careful and clever in possession, prioritizing control, that is until the opposition are lulled into stepping out then all hell breaks loose.
First Trent Alexander-Arnold pierces a brilliant long-ball into space – the full-back has done this, often to devastating effect, 3.4 times per game all season – then Salah hares onto it. Or Gakpo. Or Diaz. Whoever it may be they instantly have support, a trio or quartet of flared nostrils and widened eyes, sensing a chance and being alive to it.
And all the while Mac Allister or Szoboszlai are racing behind, set to make good if that chance goes awry.
Liverpool have committed to the most shots on target this season (6.4 per 90) and have created the most big chances (57). Greater caution elsewhere meanwhile – along with having arguably the best centre-back in world football – has resulted in the Reds conceding a xGA of just 13.36 all term long, the lowest in the Premier League by some distance.
It’s a scary and somewhat bizarre claim to make when referring to a team under new management, but from the get-go the champions-elect have looked almost complete.
And of course there is Mo Salah, scorer of six derby goals in his last eight appearances, and right now raising his own bar to a ludicrous level.
The Egyptian King boasts a goal involvement every 58 minutes in 2024/25, on six occasions both scoring and assisting in a single game. In his quest for a Golden Boot he presently outstrips Erling Haaland by one goal, this despite taking on 19 fewer shots.
Compare and contrast all this to Dominic Calvert-Lewin, the Everton striker finding himself a regular starter this season, for once free of injuries. The 27-year-old is scoring at a rate of a goal every nine hours.
So yes, it is clear what you’re thinking. We’re all thinking the same too.
Liverpool will be too sharp and clinical to their neighbours, who at best will huff and puff valiantly.
But Jurgen Klopp was in possession of some fantastical sides too, and time and again they went to Goodison and ultimately settled for a stalemate.
History rarely deals in black and white, instead offering up clues, and leaving answers to interpretation. But here it is, giving it to us straight.
We really should listen to it.
Ste’s Treble
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