Ste Tudor | Euro 2025 Final Betting Tips: England’s fortitude not enough to combat brilliant Spain

THE Lionesses have got out of jail so many times in Switzerland they are probably deserving of a golden key and handshake from the warden.

Their constant evading of heartbreak began early, with a comprehensive thumping of the Netherlands in what was a must-win encounter just two games in. Granted, this wasn’t a prison break as such, but they certainly got out on bail, after an opening loss to France left them with no margin for error.

Lauren James was the stand-out performer in that one, but it must be said that the Chelsea star has frustrated as much as she has impressed at the Euros.

Then came that ridiculous penalty shoot-out vs Sweden, high drama that only came about because England scored two late goals to haul themselves back in contention. Twice the Swedes simply had to convert from 12 yards and twice they fluffed their lines and as the Blagult collapsed to the turf, dumbfounded at the manner of their exit, superstitious onlookers began to posit that England’s name must be on the trophy.

That theory was severely tested on Tuesday, with Sarina Wiegman’s side once more staring defeat in the face and once more relying on subs Chloe Kelly and Michelle Agyemang to upend the evening’s narrative.

There was less than 30 seconds remaining of their taxing clash with Italy when the latter fired home an equaliser. There was only a minute left of added-on time when Kelly slotted home a pen at the second time of asking.

All of which is to say that, though there has unquestionably been decent individual showings in Switzerland – Russo las led the line well, Toone has had her moments, while Bronze has been typically uber-competitive – this has been a resilient, rather than fluid, England; a team that has dug deep into its reserves of personnel and spirit instead of firing on all cylinders.

Their fortitude, belief and fight are a match for anyone.

Back corners in this Sunday’s final. Combined the teams have averaged 7.4 per 90 at the competition and have attacking full-backs and impactful wide players to spare. Over 9.5 total offers up 9/10

Will that be enough though as they prepare to take on Spain in a consecutive major final on Sunday? We might have to put our patriotism to one side, and what we’d dearly like to happen, and admit that it won’t be.

Evidence of this was evident midweek when La Roja justified their pre-tournament role as favourites in navigating a path to the final.

Germany showed fortitude, and had plenty of fight, as they collectively pressed the best team in world football and did it well throughout, frustrating Alexia Putellas and company all the way to added-on time.

Yet almost inevitably Spain found a way, their 70% of the ball and 22 attempts on goal ultimately leading to Aitana Bonmati finding space in the attacking third and that’s all this fabulous player needs.

By the contest’s end, Germany were spent having given it their all and having performed at their optimal level. It is pertinent that DFB-Frauen can be directly pitched at England’s level.

Whereas the reigning world champions are unrefutably a notch above, a formidable creation looking to make it a clean sweep having also secured the Nations League last year.

In making it to Basel, Montse Tome’s side have scored the most goals, had the most attempts, kept the most clean sheets and, wholly unsurprisingly, boasted the most possession.

Spain have taken on a shot every 3.9 minutes in Switzerland, hitting the target every 9.5 minutes. Over 6.5 SOT v England is a great shout at 49/20

It’s possession fully utilised by two-time Ballon d’Or winner Putellas who – along with current Ballon d’Or holder Bonmati – has ran most of the shows, scoring on three occasions for good measure. Barcelona’s Claudia Pina meanwhile has been highly effective down the left, taking on 10 attempts and averaging 2.75 key passes per 90.

And at the heart of everything that is brilliant about Spain lies Patricia Guijarro, the metronome of metronomes. The 27-year-old has made 401 accurate passes in the competition to date. That’s nearly 50 more than anyone else.

Add in the undefinables, such as the sharply honed, clever nature to their movement and heightened technical craft and England have another mountain to climb at the weekend, this time before the opening whistle.

Regrettably, this time out, it feels like a peak too far.

Back Pina to have over 2.5 shots at 8/5

It is tempting therefore to suspect that a repeat of the 2023 World Cup final may be on the cards, a game that saw England valiant and dogged but overall outplayed by La Roja, who dealt with their opposition’s direct approach well and maintained control for the entire duration. Instead, perhaps the Lionesses’ narrow loss in Catalonia in June is the template for what’s to come.

Then, England took an early lead and defended stoutly thereafter but were eventually worn down by persistent peppering of their goal. All the will in the world wasn’t enough to fend off the intricate build-up play around their box and lethal finishing by Pina eventually settled matters.

Though heavily fancied Spain will not have everything their own way come Sunday. Remarkably, only one of these team’s 14 previous encounters was won by more than a single goal margin while England last failed to get on the scoresheet 14 fixtures ago, against USWNT.

But a retaining of their Euro crown feels like a test that is beyond Wiegman’s warriors, unlucky to again face a generational side in their prime.