THE last time Wales beat their arch neighbours England was all the way back in May, 1984. A pint of milk cost 20p. Frankie was telling everyone to relax. The miner’s strike was in full effect.
Mark Hughes got the winner that evening in front of 14,000 fans at the Racecourse.
Since then, it’s been a drawn-out tale of woe for the proud nation, enduring seven consecutive losses. Though none have been thrashings, they have routinely been out-manoeuvred and out-classed.
All of which is to say that this Thursday evening at Wembley represents Wales’ best chance in a generation to finally get one over on their nearest, and not so dearest, again. They probably won’t, which explains their chunky 10/1 price, but for all manner of reasons the visitors have it within their means to make this friendly a highly competitive, close affair. And let’s just say it won’t be a 10/1 shock if they nicked it.
We will return though to Wales in due course. Firstly, let’s illustrate why Thomas Tuchel’s England right now cannot be trusted. To be good. To be on it.
They were ‘on it’ in Serbia last month, that’s for sure. In what was unquestionably their best performance to date under the German, the Three Lions controlled proceedings admirably well in Belgrade, passing the hosts off the park and dictating the tempo throughout. All told, England bagged five, created seven big chances to Serbia’s none, and took on 24 efforts on goal.
It was as comprehensive as it gets.
Yet where was that cohesiveness three days earlier at home to Andorra? Against a side ranked 174th in the world – and not for the first time under Tuchel – England looked laboured and devoid of any imagination. In build-up they were predictable, safe, while movement off the ball was perfunctory at best.
In both meetings England did just enough and no more against a side that haven’t scored an international goal for 12 hours.
Furthermore, sandwiched in between these toiling efforts was a deserved loss to Senegal, the victors racking up nine shots on target, and so it stands to reason that one decent showing in Serbia is nowhere near enough to believe at this juncture that all is well with Thomas Tuchel’s England. That they’re all vibrant and better now, and this Thursday we are guaranteed to see a repeat of their last outing.
Naturally, the England boss will be hoping that the win in Belgrade does have a significant meaning, that he stumbled upon a winning formula that evening, and this in part explains his highly surprising squad selection, omitting Jude Bellingham, Phil Foden and Jack Grealish, while Cole Palmer is unavailable, all to maintain the same midfield roster.
Watching the game from their respective homes this week will be four of the best number 10s in the business, and only one of them is injured.
In their place, Morgan Rogers will again be entrusted to scheme, something he did superbly well vs Serbia. Five key passes, including one assist is not to be sniffed at.
Crucially though, the 23-year-old has largely failed to have any impact at Aston Villa this term, with the worst pass completion rate of any Villan who has played two games or more. Despite starting every league game, 53 other top-flight players have carved out a greater number of chances.
Where England have fewer concerns of course is up top, namely because they possess Harry Kane who can’t stop scoring this season for Bayern and has a similar, very welcome, affliction for his country.
Eighteen goals in 10 displays in Germany puts the prolific striker on course to have a record-breaking campaign while eight goals in his last nine starts for England is yet further proof that he will be desperately missed when he calls it a day.
To his left, Marcus Rashford is expected to feature, the Barcelona forward conjuring up a goal involvement every 77 minutes this term. Bukayo Saka meanwhile should get the nod over Jarrod Bowen down the right.
This familiar trio will trouble a Wales rearguard who have only kept clean sheets against Liechtenstein and Kazakhstan in 2025 but still there is a strong feeling that this Welsh side should not be under-estimated.
Transformed under Craig Bellamy, a hothead by stereotype but a shrewd tactician in reality, the Dragons have lost only two in 12 under the former Liverpool striker. There is a fluidity in possession and a hunger to press.
Up front Brennan Johnson will occupy Konsa and Guehi but it’s behind the Tottenham forward where the threats lie.
David Brooks has been excellent for Bournemouth to date, gaining the captaincy to boot, while Harry Wilson can be a constant menace on his day. Jordan James meanwhile has scored two in two from midfield for Leicester, taking on an additional six shots in his last four outings.
In nets, Karl Darlow is capable of frustrating the hosts, pulling off five saves recently at Molineux.
In summary then, Wales will be charged up and organised, a collective with a shared cause. If the same is true of England, they will no doubt win it, but that is anything but a given at this moment in time.
Frankly, it’s a coin-flip as to which version of England shows up.
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