SINCE Italy’s Euro success in 2021, at the expense of England on pens at Wembley, the two nations have been reacquainted three times, first sharing the spoils in a forgettable encounter at Molineux before chalking up a win apiece.

From these, it is unquestionably their most recent clash in Naples, back in March, that is most relevant to what awaits us on Tuesday evening, a famous Three Lions victory that came courtesy of powerhouse performances from Declan Rice and Jude Bellingham in midfield, and a record-breaking goal from Harry Kane.

It’s worth rolling the dice on Bellingham having over 2.5 shots this Tuesday at 9/5

Impressively controlling proceedings for the most part, it was England’s first win on the peninsula since 1961 and set Gareth Southgate’s men up as Group C leaders, a position they have yet to relinquish. It means three more points this week will guarantee them finishing in top spot.

Should they lose though, it’s still very much all to play for.

Within that uncertainty, Italy might well have been fancied to prevail in North London were it not for a couple of cruel twists of fate. After all, they have been a markedly improved proposition since Luciano Spalletti took charge in September, responding to criticism of their shot-shy ways by racking up 22 attempts in beating Ukraine, before easily dispensing with Malta.

If the Azzurri can replicate some of Napoli’s title-winning habits in the months ahead under the 64-year-old, they could well be a force to be reckoned with again.

Right now though, there are problems to address and significant ones too, namely the forced withdrawals of Sandro Tonali and Nicolo Zaniolo, while an injury crisis only exacerbates matters.

With Federico Chiesa, Lorenzo Pellegrini, Ciro Immobile, and Mateo Retegui – who scored against England in March – all unavailable it amounts to a lot of experience and an abundance of quality missing from their ranks. One-hundred and fifty-nine caps’ worth to be precise, not to mention 31 international goals.

England have conceded 0.8 shots on target post-Qatar. Under 2.5 for the Azzurri is a shout at 6/5

So even if it must be said that Italy looked sharp and ‘on it’ against Malta at the weekend, and even if the future appears bright, this is a weakened collective heading to Wembley, and furthermore one in transition. They could be vulnerable.

That is not to suggest of course, they are minus threats. In Davide Frattesi they possess a midfielder with four goals in three outings for the Azzurri, while Domenico Berardi has six goal involvements in six in Serie A. Additionally, the Sassuolo forward was Italy’s two-goal star man as they mauled Malta.

Moreover, they have the sometimes brilliant, always highly functional Nicolo Barella pulling the strings centrally, and Giovanni Di Lorenzo too can be anticipated to cause England complications down their left.

Defensively, Di Lorenzo will have his work cut out against either Rashford or Maddison. The Napoli man has been booked in his last two meetings with England. He is 4/1 to make it three in a row.

Yet, all things considered, this feels like an important England win in the offering, one that will afford Southgate a chance to experiment in the remaining games, much as he did against Australia last Friday.

On that damp squib, it’s fair to state that so many changes resulted in the hosts playing like strangers, with an unfamiliar back-line almost inevitably giving away chances that would ordinarily be cut off at source. Indeed, on the night, England conceded twice as many shots on target than they faced in their preceding six games.

It’s also fair to state that we can expect considerably more cohesion and dynamism this time out, with Pickford, Walker, Maguire, Stones and Trippier all returning to a rearguard that kept six clean sheets from ten prior to their understudies doing likewise against a wasteful Socceroos.

In midfield meanwhile, the reinstatement of Rice and Bellingham will add sizable stature and class, infinitely more than Gallagher and Henderson managed to muster. Their presence alone takes England up a whole level.

Then naturally, there is Kane, a goal-scoring phenomenon who has converted 25 in his last 27 international starts. For Bayern this term, needing scant time to acclimatize, he has either scored or assisted in the Bundesliga every 50.1 minutes.

But without a doubt, so much of England’s best moments come from Bellingham, their generational talent who can single-handedly subjugate any opponent, great or small.

This we saw at Hampden Park last month, with a masterclass that totted up to a goal, an assist, 16 passes made in the final third, and five successful dribbles.

In La Liga, so substantial has been his impact, already comparisons are being made with Real Madrid’s stonewall legends.

If the 20-year-old turns up this week, Italy will have little answer bar the dark arts for which they’re known for. And there is no evidence to believe he won’t turn up.

None of the last 20 meetings between these sides have produced over three goals. Go for an England win and under 2.5 goals at 21/10