AT the quarter-final stage of almost every major tournament there remains a team you’re still not quite sure about. Certainly their results have impressed, while it’s impossible to navigate a group and last 16 clash without at least a couple of individuals consistently excelling.

Yet, for all this, there is something lacking, often something that is hard to pull a finger on. For want of a better word, they simply look ordinary; beatable, even if that hasn’t happened to this point. They are a cake that has risen despite the measurements being awry.

At the Club World Cup this summer that team is Fluminense.

The Brazilians have kept three clean sheets in their four games so absolutely they are defensively sound with old stagers Fabio and Thiago Silva showing the way. Remarkably, the keeper and former PSG and Chelsea centre-back have a combined age of 84 and 2748 senior appearances to their name.

And, referring back to the individuals who must shine for a team to progress, Jhon Arias has been outstanding, completing nine successful dribbles and racking up 14 key passes. The Colombian has particularly stood out for shots undertaken – averaging 3.2 per 90 in the tournament – while it’s perhaps pertinent that he’s been fouled three times per game.

Here he comes up against Renan Lodi who has overstepped the mark twice in each of his last two outings.

Even so, gut instinct says that Al Hilal could prevail in Orlando this Friday, a team packed with familiar faces, from Ruben Neves to Sergei Milinkovic-Savic, with Kalidou Koulibaly bolstering their efforts at the back.

The manner in which the Blue Waves outgunned Manchester City this week – and the fortitude they needed to do so – puts real value into their 31/20 odds.

Back Al Hilal to win, Jhon Arias over 2.5 shots, and Lodi over 1.5 fouls conceded at 15/2

Several hours later, on America’s other coast, Chelsea meet Palmeiras, with both teams requiring extra-time to see off their last 16 opponents.

That similarity aside however the contests differed greatly, as the ‘Big Green’ found themselves embroiled in an all-Brazilian slug-fest, one that saw both sides cancelled out until legs tired. Substitute Paulinho finally broke the deadlock in a fractious affair that produced 12 cautions and a red card for Palmeiras captain Gustavo Gomez.

Chelsea meanwhile were sucker-punched by a last-gasp equalizer by Benfica last weekend but recovered well to score three times in added-on time to make the score-line as comprehensive as it deserved to be. By the final reckoning, the Blues had compiled 22 attempts on goal with Anatoliy Trubin forced into making seven saves.

Enzo Maresca’s men were the better side throughout.

That might well be the case again in Philadelphia, especially with the Brazilians missing their influential leader, though there is an interesting subplot of winger Estevao playing against the club he’s set to join post-competition. The big talking point regarding Chelsea is the current form of Cole Palmer, revitalized and superb last time out.

Estevao is 39/20 score or assist on Friday night while Palmer is Evens to continue his heavy shot-tally with over 3.5 yet, from a betting perspective, this fascinating duel can be reduced to something as banal as corners.

Combined, they amassed a staggering 25 vs Botafogo/Benfica with Chelsea averaging 5.2 per 90 in their ten matches prior and Palmeiras 7.6. Over 9.5 total at 21/20 is just too good to pass up here.

Back over 9.5 corners at 21/20

And then along comes PSG vs Bayern Munich, a heavyweight bout featuring arguably the best team in Europe right now butting heads with a club that has assumed that mantle many times down the years, including in recent times.

Better yet, goals can be anticipated in Atlanta, from a team that has averaged four goals per 90 so far (Bayern) versus a sensational front three for PSG that have accumulated a hefty 92 goal involvements between them in 2024/25 going into the tournament.

Of that trio, it is Khvicha Kvaratskhelia who has been the most impactful in the US, converting once and assisting twice, and that’s potentially pertinent because if the Germans have one chink in their armoury it’s down their right. Full-back Konrad Laimer can be got at while further forward Michael Olise is too busy being brilliant in an attacking sense.

Olise must be in the running for Player of the Tournament given his performances to date.

All told then, there is an awful lot to look forward to here, with BTTS and/or over 2.5 goals handy additions to any bet builder. Indeed, in this instance I’m prepared to overlook a head-to-head record that reveals that eight of the last 10 encounters have been won to nil.

Bayern edge that head-to-head but it’s PSG touted to reach the semi-finals. Frankly though, who cares so long as ‘Kvaradona’ carries on doing Kvara things.

Back Kvaratskhelia to score or assist at 9/10

Lastly, completing this weekend’s quarters, we have tournament second favourites Real Madrid taking on Borussia Dortmund and with this one the most interesting detail is not so much the outcome as when the damage might be done.

Drawing with Al Hilal aside, Los Blancos have cruised through to this juncture, propelled by the goals of Gonzalo Garcia who has widely been compared to Raul as a consequence. The 21-year-old has bagged three and assisted once in just 293 minutes in the US.

Behind him, Federico Valverde has been magnificent and with Vinicius Jr starting to find his groove too, Real are tipped to better the Germans in New Jersey, even if some resistance can obviously be expected. Dortmund striker Serhou Guirassy has found the net every 131 minutes in 2025.

Still, the Spanish giants have too much quality, and variety of firepower, not to be backed though typically it takes them a while to make their mark. They have only scored inside the opening half an hour in two of their last 18 outings.

Of the last 18 goals Dortmund have conceded meanwhile, only four have come in the first half.

Back Real Madrid to win the second half at 1/1

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