AFTER being met with criticism and apathy in equal moderation, the forthcoming FIFA Club World Cup is now eliciting an entirely new response. We cannot help but be fascinated.
The source of this fascination principally lies with what awaits us this summer, across America’s vast sporting bowls, as a reimagined, greatly expanded tournament kicks off as essentially one big experiment.
Nobody knows if the Club World Cup will catch fire or die a death, least of all FIFA. Nobody knows how strong each team will go as regards to team selection, though the £775m prize money up for grabs will surely see the likes of Kylian Mbappe and Erling Haaland featuring throughout.
Even on a personal level this curio of a competition prompts a series of unknowns. They may be exciting and weird mash-ups but do we have the wherewithal to watch Botafogo v Seattle Sounders at three in the morning, or Boca Juniors v Benfica late into the evening? Only time will tell.
Thankfully, for the purposes of this preview, we only need focus on one of the queries above – the extent in which this tournament is taken seriously by all participants – and let’s assume each of them go all-in. From there, it’s a whole lot of fun betting on the outrights.
Why? Because across all eight groups there are a plethora of supposed minnows who are more than capable of landing a punch or two, while several teams priced up as second favourites to top their respective group offer up tremendous value. That’s before we even get to the top goal-scorer market where there are three names minimum who have a legitimate shot of out-firing their peers despite carrying odds of 20/1 upwards.
A quartet of strange bedfellows in Group D exemplifies the unpredictable nature of this competition perfectly. At face value, Chelsea will top the foursome, with Brazilian giants Flamengo close behind. That leaves Los Angeles FC out-pointing the Tunisian side ES Tunis to finish third.
Do we even need to go through the rigmarole of actually playing the games?
Yet Espérance de Tunis are not the poor cousins they’re being painted as elsewhere, blessed with a defence that keeps clean sheets for fun and a talismanic winger in Youcef Belaili who can inspire.
The Blood and Gold have it within their means to pull off a shock, and who knows, maybe even two.
As for Flamengo, not only are they managed by one of the most highly rated coaches around – Filipe Luis, here taking on one of his former clubs Chelsea – but they possess a wealth of proven experience, particularly at the back with Danilo and Alex Sandro. Between them, the pair have won 17 league titles, across two continents and six different leagues.
The ‘Big Mengo’ too have a brilliant left winger, in the form of their quixotic Uruguayan Giorgian de Arrascaeta.
The brave money would go on ES Tunis to progress from Group D at 8/1. The sensible shout is to back Flamengo to top it.
Elsewhere, in Group E, there is another 9/4 priced second favourite well fancied to top their pile, with River Plate likely facing only serious examination from Inter Milan.
Unbeaten in 18 across all comps, the Argentines head to the US purring and with their Real Madrid-bound wonderkid Franco Mastantuono desperate to sign off at Los Millonarios with a flourish – the teenage midfielder has eight goal involvements in his last 12 outings – it’s tempting to back Enzo Francescoli’s men to go deep. After all, either Borussia Dortmund or Fluminense are lined up next, both tough but beatable opponents.
For the record, River Plate are 8/1 to be eliminated in the quarters.
Let’s, however, keep to the matter at hand and focus on Inter being bettered, a team who travel west under new management and set to be troubled by the 2021 Concacaf Champions League winners Monterrey just 18 days after having their pants well and truly pulled down by PSG in their own Champions League final.
If I Nerazzurri are still remotely shaken by that experience, their opening opponents have the nous to pull off a minor shock, studded as they are with European heavyweights, from Sergio Ramos to Sergio Canales.
What Inter at least have in their favour is Lautaro Martinez and his regular supply of goals but though he is generously priced at 20/1 to out-fire everyone else in the US, as always, when it comes to selecting a top goal-scorer, the team must be considered as much as the player.
With Inter still reeling from that crushing defeat in Munich will they go far enough for Martinez to convert five-plus?
The same principle puts us off Vangelis Pavlidis who otherwise ticks every box to end up with this summer’s Golden Boot. Benfica’s Greek goal-machine ended 2025/26 with 29 in 53, including seven in the Champions League. A hat-trick against Porto has been a highlight of recent months for the 26-year-old.
Realistically though, just how many chances will Pavlidis get, suppressed by a Bayern back-line that conceded fewer than a goal a game in the Bundesliga last term, and a buoyant Boca? It’s a factor for sure.
No, grabbing attention in the top goal-scorer market are Atletico’s front pairing of Alexander Sorloth and Julian Alvarez, what with the Mattress-Makers strongly backed to at least make the last eight, imbued as they are with elite quality and tournament acumen.
Despite coming off the bench for 52% of his league appearances last term, Sorloth still managed to bag 20 La Liga strikes, with four of them struck at Real Sociedad’s expense just last month. Here though, we’re erring towards Alvarez, the gunpowder to Atletico’s season and a forward who, let’s not forget, narrowly missed out on a World Cup Golden Boot in 2022.
The former Manchester City ace converted every 127 minutes in 2024/25.
So, if we’re going to overlook two of the tournament favourites Real Madrid and Man City – along with their superstar finishers – for better value elsewhere, who are we backing to win this strange old month-long competition?
It intrigues that Atletico’s first opponents are PSG, the recently crowned European champions, who are of course in contention, furnished as they are with a quite formidable front-line. In addition, their midfield can prise open a safety deposit box with the outside of a boot.
Yet what also intrigues is that Luis Enrique’s side are 9/2 to lift the trophy on July 13th. Why not include Atletico into that reckoning at the same odds?
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