IT’S almost become a sport in itself to talk down Arsenal in recent weeks.

They are far too wasteful in front of goal. They will really struggle without Bukayo Saka. Mikel Arteta is a glorified Tony Pulis for his reliance on set pieces.

Anyone with only a vague interest in the Premier League would be under the impression that the Gunners have nose-dived out of the title reckoning and are experiencing the first flushes of crisis.

Of course, reality differs from all this naysaying, in some respects quite substantially.

This Saturday, Liverpool face a tough examination at Brentford and should they lose, that presents Arsenal with a decent opportunity to narrow the gap to a single point deficit. Game on, as they say.

As for the carping about this and that, let’s take them in turn.

Any team would greatly miss Saka. The same goes, incidentally, for Gabriel Jesus after the Brazilian recently struck a rich vein of goal-scoring form.

But at least in Martinelli, Trossard and Havertz there is sufficient compensation in the form of an attacking threat, with each player capable of putting together a scoring streak. Trossard’s zinger in the North London Derby midweek was a response in part to the flawed notion that his team will be blunt going forward minus their England international.

He may frustrate but Havertz never shies from letting fly, averaging 2.3 shots per 90. The German is 11/10 to have over 2.5 attempts on goal this Saturday

Corners? Well that’s simply jealousy, from supporters of sides who haven’t scored double figures from set pieces, and who don’t possess a towering centre-back such as Gabriel who is a specialist at them.

Lastly, there is Arsenal’s profligacy to consider, of which they are absolutely guilty of. Going into their neighbourly dispute with Spurs, Arteta’s men had scored only once from their last 8.23(xG), a number that breaks down to 49 attempts on goal and 10 big chances. Kai Havertz meanwhile – the main recipient of these chances – has a shot accuracy (41%) that is miles off his opponent number Ollie Watkins (49%) this weekend.

Yet isn’t it far preferable to be creating and missing opportunities than not carving them out at all? At some juncture some poor team is going to get a real tonking from Arsenal, when the matrix rights itself.

Moreover, this would be a genuine concern if results were getting away from them.

In actual fact, the Gunners are unbeaten in 11. Across all comps, they last lost a game in which they scored 45 matches ago. They last lost at home way back in April of last year, to Aston Villa of all teams.

Arsenal are fine. They’re doing fine.

Okay, let’s stop there, because this is beginning to sound like one of those threads you see on X, attributed to @ThierryTheKing or @Saka3726622.

Instead, let’s offer up a caveat, an admission that the Gunners aren’t as imperious at the back as they used to be.

At the start of 2024 to last season’s conclusion, a watertight defence kept clean sheets in 61.1% of their fixtures. In the same amount of games this term, that has plummeted to 27.7%.

Declan Rice has been cautioned twice in three prior appearances in this fixture. Go for Rice to be carded plus over 24.5 fouls total in a game that often gets a little tasty. This offers up 8/1

Can Villa take advantage of such ordinariness on Saturday evening? We can certainly rule out a tonking for the visitors, the Villans so often proving to be a thorn in Arsenal’s side.

As stated above, Unai Emery’s team were victorious at the tail-end of last season, completing a double over the Gunners after being magnificent at Villa Park against them four months earlier. They additionally strung together three back-to-back wins between 2020 and 2021.

Furthermore, Villa head to the capital on the back of an away success, their first since mid-October. Their beating of Everton ends a narrative that had them pegged as a Jekyll and Hyde side, excellent at home but wishy-washy on their travels, and psychologically that’s a huge boost going into the second half of their campaign.

The result brought them only their third shutout of 2024/25 but it was orchestrated further forward via Youri Tielemans and finished off by Watkins and the striker’s story is an interesting one worth lingering on.

After his international heroics over the summer, Watkins began the season as Villa’s main man and seven goal involvements in his first eight outings only confirmed this.

Yet the whole time, the 29-year-old was fending off the advances of Jhon Duran, the Colombian racking up ridiculous figures in his role as super-sub.

It felt inevitable that sooner or later Duran would usurp his superior and early December this duly occurred, the younger forward celebrating his promotion by blasting three in three.

A sending off, however, at Newcastle offered Watkins a way back in. And with two goals and two assists in his four games since he has done anything but spurn it.

Watkins, it should be noted, has fired five goals in nine previously in this fixture.

With 13 goal involvements to his name this season, the striker is 19/10 to score or assist at the Emirates

Naturally, this duel for the number 9 jersey benefits Villa enormously but it must be said that elsewhere goals are in fewer supply to last year. Between them Jacob Ramsey, Tielemans, and Leon Bailey have just a solitary strike from a combined 41 starts while Villa’s midfield is robust but hardly a collective that gives opposition keepers nightmares.

The consequence of this is that the Midlands giant have averaged 1.5 goals per 90 in the Premier League this term. It was two per 90 last.

There is something else too, a habit that may prove costly if Arsenal stay true to type, miss their chances but continue to plug away.

The visitors have conceded 11 goals this term beyond the 75^th minute. Only Wolves and Southampton come close to that.

Both teams are in the top four for corners won this season. BTTS, Full Time Arsenal and total corners over 9.5 is a shout at 21/5

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