PREDICTING Thomas Tuchel’s starting XI for this Saturday’s encounter with Andorra should be a relatively straightforward exercise, especially with so many key figures missing, narrowing the coach’s options. In the event, these absences only confuse matters.
We can take it as read that Tuchel will revert to his favoured 4-2-3-1 after a recent switch to 4-4-2 coincided with a home loss to Senegal. It’s hard to recall the last time the Three Lions conceded nine shots on target on home soil, but certainly no other opposition have come close to that tally for many a year.
England were additionally blunt going forward on that underwhelming evening back in June, only looking lively when changes were made from the bench.
We can also safely assume Harry Kane will lead the line at the weekend, with Declan Rice bolstering the midfield and given license to roam forward.
John Stones meanwhile is a probable at the back, his passing acumen a very useful asset against a low block. Myles Lewis-Skelly and Reece James are fancied in the full-back positions, based on form and decent, recent showings for their country.
Beyond these presumed details, however, there is a fair degree of guesswork.
Will Eberechi Eze be deployed on the left, or Anthony Gordon? The latter accrued 6.7 shots per 90 until he clattered recklessly into Virgil Van Dijk a fortnight back. That remains a league-high ratio.
It was Eze, though, who outperformed Gordon when both featured against Senegal; Arsenal’s new signing advanced in a false striker role.
Then there are the two Morgans – Gibbs-White and Rogers – who are vying to scheme centrally. Both players have matched each other stat-for-stat for the past year, and frankly, this is a coin flip.
On the right, Noni Madueke arguably edges out Jarrod Bowen despite the West Ham star impressing at the weekend, scoring and creating two big chances into the bargain.
At the back, Ezri Konsa is tipped to partner Stones, the mental state of Marc Guehi a factor after missing out on his Liverpool move. Besides, the Villa defender has started three in four under Tuchel.
That just leaves one midfield spot that could be allocated to Elliot Anderson. Tuchel stated this week that he sees the uncapped 22-year-old as a number 8, and certainly he has thrived in that capacity for Forest. Already this term he has accumulated five key passes and won 26 ground and aerial duels.
With so much of the above merely conjecture, thank goodness then for Harry Kane, a reliable port amidst a sea of uncertainty.
Better yet, England’s record goalscorer has begun 2025/26 on fire, scoring six in four for Bayern Munich, while it’s highly pertinent that he has converted in each of his last five international outings.
With eight of these 11 strikes coming in the second half there is definite value in backing Kane to conclude proceedings at Wembley.
You may have noticed that we are 500 words in, and Andorra – and the potential threat they pose – has barely been mentioned. That’s because, realistically, the Tricolors don’t pose any threat at all beyond the ability to frustrate.
That, to an extent, is what they successfully did in the corresponding qualifying fixture back in June, keeping England’s attack at bay until the 50th minute and shutting them out thereafter. In nets, Iker Alvarez – by some distance Andorra’s most talented player – made nine saves throughout as his side settled for just 15% of the possession.
Naturally then, we can expect a similar approach in North London, the visitors compact and keeping at least eight players behind the ball at all times, and given the vast disparity in quality between the teams, can anyone really blame them?
Andorra’s population is the same as Redditch in the West Midlands, while on the footballing front their national side have scored a meagre three goals in 26 games.
They are ranked below Chinese Taipei and the Maldives.
This is not so much David vs Goliath as David’s sickly younger sibling, minus a slingshot, trying to appease a monster.
Of far more interest to backing an inevitable win to nil is the acknowledgement that England have historically scored fewer goals at home to minnows than when playing away.
Their last 30 encounters with teams ranked outside the top 20 has produced an impressive aggregate scoreline of 80-14, but intriguingly, their average on home soil is 2.4 goals per 90, 2.6 away.
Tied in with this, Tuchel’s England have averaged two goals a game when facing lowly Albania, Latvia and Andorra.
A comfortable one-sided win therefore awaits this Saturday but any expectation of a thrashing should be lowered. It may be too early to make this call, but Thomas Tuchel doesn’t seem to do thrashings.
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