BEFORE we get to the possible starting lineup this Saturday in Barcelona and before we explore the different aspects of Thomas Tuchel’s second camp as England boss, we must place this World Cup qualifier in its proper context. That means highlighting the vast disparity between the two teams involved.
England and Andorra have previously met on six occasions – from 2006 to 2021 – and it will hardly come as a surprise to learn that the Three Lions prevailed each time, all to nil. Indeed, the aggregate scoreline from these games amounts to 25-0. That’s a goal scored every 21 minutes.
Having the fifth smallest population of any UEFA nation, the Tricolours’ ranking back in the 2000s was lower than it is today, with a couple of wins over San Marino and a couple of Nations League victories subsequently bumping them up a little, but they’re still ranked 173rd as they prepare to host a litany of household names this weekend.
Again, some context is needed here. That’s lower than South Sudan, Papua New Guinea, and St. Vincent and the Grenadines. It’s ten places behind Vanuatu, an island only keen cartographers can place.
Staying with its population of just under 83,000, that’s fewer than Ashford in Kent. Wolverhampton has three times more inhabitants.
Naturally, then, from such a tiny pool of professional footballers to choose from, Andorra are not overly blessed with high-achievers. Their best forward, Berto Rosas, made just four starts last term on loan at Atletico Baleares, in the Spanish fourth tier. Their most experienced player, Marc Garcia, turned out for Fraga, in the Spanish fifth tier.
All of which is to say that typical betting metrics do not apply here because, barring something miraculous occurring, England will surely win to nil again. Our only considerations, therefore, are to determine how big the margin of victory will be and who will celebrate scoring in half-sheepish fashion.
Actually, that’s not strictly true, because corners are also a factor.
In their last 10 outings, England have racked up 5.7 corners per 90, a healthy return. But when we split them into home and away fixtures, a stark difference is noted, with 43 corners won in five games at Wembley but just 14 won in five on their travels.
Like backing a conservative number of goals, it’s a timely reminder that it doesn’t usually pay to go OTT, even if international fixtures are from time to time Goliath versus David minus a slingshot.
Does the same rule incidentally apply for shots on target? It does. In Tuchel’s opening two games at the helm, his new side easily dispensed with Albania and Latvia, both at Wembley, scoring five goals total from 14 SOT combined.
Under 10.5 SOT therefore appeals.
All of which leads us to an obvious question: Who is going to take these corners and fire in the shots?
Tuchel has made six changes this time out from his inaugural squad, the most fascinating of which is the inclusion of Ivan Toney. Yet the former Brentford ace’s return only demonstrates how difficult it is to predict England’s starting XIs in the week to come, with Harry Kane and Ollie Watkins also vying for selection.
It’s hard to recall the last time an England gaffer picked three specialist centre-forwards outside of a major tournament.
The task becomes even trickier when it’s acknowledged that Andorra is by far the easier of the two forthcoming challenges but is the one that actually matters. Senegal at the City Ground next Tuesday, by comparison, will test the Three Lions infinitely more, but only in a friendly.
Instinct then tells us it is Andorra that will be prioritized, with Tuchel turning to the most recognized names, and this puts Kane firmly in the frame to add to his 71-goal international haul.
Moreover, Kane is fresh, rested, and still on a high from finally securing some silverware courtesy of Bayern Munich’s Bundesliga success. His record against sides ranked beyond FIFA’s top 20 meanwhile remains a model of prolific consistency, scoring 56 times in 72 contests, equating to a goal every 96 minutes across a whole decade.
Expected to line up in and around Kane, in an attacking set-up, is Jude Bellingham, Cole Palmer and Bukayo Saka, the latter making his first England appearance since last October, and it will be interesting to see if the winger can transfer his end-of-season Arsenal form to the international stage. As for Palmer, as always, from a betting perspective it’s all about his high shot count, the 23-year-old averaging 3.46 per 90 last term for Chelsea.
He’s only failed to register a shot on target once in his last 10 outings.
Turning our attention to the back, if predicting a front six is hard, nailing the back four is slightly easier, with Myles Lewis-Skelly a shoo-in at left-back, while it should not be forgotten how impressive Dan Burn’s debut was versus Albania. With Marc Guehi unavailable, Ezri Konsa is favourite to feature next to him.
At right-back, Reece James should get the nod ahead of Trent Alexander-Arnold. In nets, Jordan Pickford is in line for a 76th cap.
And yet, at the risk of sounding flippant ahead of a World Cup qualifier, does it really matter who staffs the defence? Andorra, after all, have only managed to score three goals in their last 27 hours of international football.
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