LAST season saw the inevitable happen – Manchester City, for a fifth time in the space of six seasons, were crowned Premier League champions. Going into 2023-24, Opta’s Predictor has given them a 90% chance of making that six out of seven titles. But last season also saw something more unusual occur – all three newly promoted teams avoided relegation, for only the fourth time in the history of the Premier League. And yet, the Opta Predictor forecasts two of the three promoted teams (Sheffield United and Luton Town) will be relegated next season. Just what does history tell us about promoted clubs, and can they all avoid relegation in consecutive top-flight seasons for the first time since the early 1980s?

Second tier title winners

In the early years of the Premier League, Newcastle United enjoyed a 3^rd-placed finish in 1993-94 immediately after winning the second-tier title under Kevin Keegan, fired on by the goals of Andrew Cole, his haul of 34 a figure not beaten in the Premier League until Erling Haaland scored 36 last season and was the most by a player for a newly promoted top-flight club since Ron Davies scored 37 for Southampton in 1966-67. After Newcastle’s impressive 1993-94 season, the previous year’s second-tier title winners were then relegated immediately in four of the next five seasons, which was ended by a flurry of impressive finishes for Sunderland in 1999-00 (7^th), Charlton in 2000-01 (9^th) and Man City in 2002-03 (9^th). After City in 2003, however, only one of the next 14 title winners managed to finish in the Premier League’s top-half in their first year promoted – Reading in 2006-07, who came from 2-0 down to beat Middlesbrough 3-2 on opening day and eventually finished 8^th.

Only two of the last nine winners of the Championship title have been relegated immediately, and both times that was Norwich City in 2019-20 and 2021-22, finishing bottom with a measly five wins in each season. Other recent champions have fared much better: four of the last six have finished in the top-10 of the Premier League, with Fulham last season enjoying their most wins in a top-flight season (15) since 1959-60 (17) to finish 10^th. Marcelo Bielsa’s Leeds United took the league by storm in 2020-21, finishing 9^th and inflicting defeat on Manchester City at the Etihad with two Stuart Dallas goals (City’s first home defeat to a promoted club since 2007), winning 18 games and scoring 62 goals, the former second only to Ipswich Town in 2000-01 (20 wins) in a 38-game season by a promoted club, the latter a record since 1995-96. Wolves in 2018-19 finished 7^th, the best finish by a promoted club since Ipswich’s 5^th finish in 2000-01, while Newcastle United managed a 10^th-place finish in 2017-18, their best finish in recent times until last season’s impressive 4^th.

In recent years, it would appear if your club has just won the Championship title and isn’t named Norwich City, Premier League safety will be assured. Burnley is over 200 miles from Norwich, so the odds are in their favour.

Second tier runners-up

One season after Newcastle United had finished 3^rd in 1994, Nottingham Forest – second tier runners-up in 1993-94 – emulated them by finishing in the same position in 1994-95, which remains the last time a promoted club finished that high in a Premier League campaign – Forest, of course, having history in successful promoted campaigns, winning the league in 1977-78 with Brian Clough as manager and Frank Clark, Forest’s manager in 1994-95, making 13 appearances that season. Since Forest in 1994-95, only five of the previous year’s second-tier runners-up have gone on to finish in the top-half, something that’s happened in just one of the previous 13 campaigns, with Sheffield United – the 2022-23 Championship runners-up – finishing 9^th in 2019-20.

Five of the last nine runners-up have then been immediately relegated back to the Championship, including in three of the last five seasons – Cardiff in 2018-19, West Brom in 2020-21 and Watford in 2021-22 – with those three teams posting a total combined goal difference of minus 119. The last runner-up to exceed 40 goals scored in their promoted season was Southampton in 2012-13, who scored 49 and finished 14^th.

Runners-up, then, can expect a low scoring, high conceding season, with relegation a 60% possibility based on the last five seasons.

Second tier play-off winners

The Championship play-offs are regularly described as the most drama-filled and exciting games in the English football calendar due to what is at stake – but when the reality of promotion hits, the season after is usually a struggle for the winners. In a 38-game season, the average finishing position for play-off winners is 16^th – exactly where Nottingham Forest finished last season.

Six of the first eight play-off winners entering the Premier League were then relegated immediately – the exceptions saw excellent finishes for Blackburn (4^th in 1992-93) and Leicester (9^th in 1996-97). Then along came Ipswich Town in 2000-01, finishing 5^th to gain a spot in the 2001-02 UEFA Cup, by virtue of 20 wins and 66 points, both record totals for a promoted side in a 38-game season, although the Tractor Boys followed up that campaign with relegation in 2002 and haven’t been back since. Since Ipswich’s impressive 2000-01 season, 15 of 22 play-off winners haven’t reached double figures for wins – Derby County in 2007-08 only just scraped onto the board at all, winning just one game and 11 points to complete the Premier League’s worst ever season.

Only one of the last 17 play-off winners have finished in the top-half – a 10^th placed finish for West Ham United in 2012-13 – although only two of the last six have been relegated. Luton Town – in their first top-flight season since 1991-92 – can except a tough season, a likely bottom half finish and, if the Opta Predictor is correct, a swift return to the Championship.