WHERE were we before the interruption of the international break? Oh yes, that's right. Everton are top, Liverpool and Man Utd just conceded 13 goals between them in two games, Jose Mourinho and David Moyes have reinvented themselves as attacking powerhouses, Man City are in the bottom half, and Aston Villa, of course, have the best defensive record. What a start to the Premier League it's been so far!
And what a feast of football we have on the menu this Saturday. For starters, there is one of the most mouth-watering Merseyside derbies for some time as Everton put their 100% record on the line against a Liverpool side desperate to restore pride. For consistency, within this extended meal metaphor, Southampton's trip to Chelsea must be described as a pallet cleanser before we move on to the main course, Man City vs Arsenal at the Etihad, not forgetting Man Utd's trip to Newcastle for dessert (or cheese, which is also figuratively available).
Right, that's enough mealy-mouthed preamble, let's get to this Saturday's tips.
Everton vs Liverpool | Saturday October 17, 12:30
Everton finished 50 points behind their title-winning rivals last season, but can move six points ahead with a win on Saturday. And make no mistake, this is a huge opportunity. The Toffees top the Premier League with a 100% record, they boast Europe's highest scoring striker in Dominic Calvert-Lewin fresh from a goal-scoring England debut, and will face an Allisonless Liverpool who just became the first Premier League champions to ship seven goals in one match.
That said, Liverpool have now gone 22 games without losing to Everton – the Reds' joint longest unbeaten run against any opponent (22 vs Aston Villa between 1981 and 1992). In 11 games against Everton, Jurgen Klopp has never lost (seven wins, four draws). This weekend will mark the five-year anniversary of his appointment at Anfield – Liverpool are yet to lose consecutive Premier League games under the German.
Seven of the last eight Goodison derbies have ended in draws with each of the last three finishing 0-0, but this year promises something different. No side has scored more goals than Everton so far this season (12), only West Brom (13) have conceded more than Liverpool (11). Jordan Pickford and Adrian in goal is an outfield players' dream with both keepers loking shaky in recent displays.
With nine goals in six appearances, Calvert-Lewin has simply not appeared for Everton without scoring this season. If Liverpool play anything like as high a line as they did against Aston Villa, or equally remain just as lax from set pieces, Calvert-Lewin will be quids in. On the other side, Mo Salah needs just one goal to reach a century in the red of Liverpool (in just 159 games). Everton's 100% record goes on Saturday, but they will remain unbeaten.
Match odds: Everton (14/5) Draw (3/1) Liverpool (17/20)
Correct score: Everton 2-2 Liverpool (10/1)
Tip: Match multi – Mo Salah to score and over 2.5 total goals (6/4)
Chelsea vs Southampton | Saturday October 17, 15:00
The international break saw withdrawals from Edouard Mendy and Ben Chilwell meaning Frank Lampard may have to reshuffle his defence just one game into having his full selection available. If Mendy makes it, he can become the first Chelsea keeper since Petr Cech in 2004 to keep a clean sheet in his first two Premier League games.
Southampton are looking for their third straight victory this season, following wins over Burnley (0-1) and West Brom (2-0). They can also pick up a second straight win at Stamford Bridge after last year's 2-0. With Danny Ings finally bagging his first England goal, five years after his debut, his confidence ought to be up, but Chelsea have a deceptively impressive home record under Lampard.
Since the start of last season, no Premier League side has conceded fewer at home than Chelsea (18) with seven of their last home outings ending in wins. Five clean sheets in that run, and 18 goals scored to just four conceded, suggests the Blues are a tough nut to crack on their own patch. Southampton tend to perform better away from home, but Chelsea's awesome attacking power gives them the edge in this clash.
Match odds: Chelsea (1/2) Draw (18/5) Southampton (21/4)
Correct score: Chelsea 3-1 Southampton (19/2)
Tip: Chelsea to win and both teams to score (19/10)
Man City vs Arsenal | Saturday October 17, 17:30
After just one win from their three Premier League games so far, Man City find themselves in the bottom half having conceded more (seven) than they've scored (six). Their last home game was a 2-5 humbling against Leicester, and Saturday's opponents Arsenal comfortably saw them off 2-0 in July's FA Cup semi-final. This is a massive game for Man City, and for Pep Guardiola, who so far is rebuilding his team less assuredly than his former assistant at the Emirates.
Arsenal are fourth but they've had the fewest shots of any Premier League club this season (19), 17 fewer than next lowest West Brom (36). Impressive shot conversion (42.1%) but it does suggest the Gunners lack creativity. Hero of that semi-final, Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang, has played more Premier League minutes without scoring against Man City than he has any against other opponent (450).
City dominate the recent head-to-head: nine games unbeaten (seven wins, two draws) with at least two goals in each game, and six straight Premier League wins. With doubts over the fitness of Kevin De Bruyne, Sergio Aguero and Gabriel Jesus, City won't be as rampant as they generally have been against Arsenal, but I fancy them to control the game and get back to winning ways.
Match odds: Man City (21/50) Draw (17/4) Arsenal (11/2)
Correct score: Man City 2-1 Arsenal (7/1)
Tip: Wincast – Raheem Sterling to score and Man City to win (6/4)
Newcastle vs Man Utd | Saturday October 17, 20:00
Newcastle have beaten Saturday's opponents in two of their last three matches at St James' Park, including a 1-0 win last season. Man Utd are coming off their second most humiliating defeat ever at Old Trafford and arguably the most awkwardly timed international break of Ole Gunnar Solskjaer's short managerial career.
Only West Brom (13) have shipped more goals than Solskjaer's side (11) this season. Historically speaking, only the Red Devils' 1930/31 vintage conceded more (13) in their first three games before being relegated in 22nd position. That said, Man Utd are still on a run of excellent away form with five straight wins all while scoring at least two goals. Extending such a run to six games is something no United side has ever done.
Newcastle have scored an incredible six goals from eight shots on target this season which is both a strength and a weakness. Sure, if they test under-performing David De Gea regularly, they are likely to score goals, but the regular tests simply might not happen. Newcastle's impotent attack, combined with Man Utd's preference for playing on the counter, leads me to expect an away win here.
Match odds: Newcastle (4/1) Draw (3/1) Man Utd (4/6)
Correct score: Newcastle 1-2 Man Utd (7/1)
Tip: HT Draw, FT Man Utd (15/4)
Click here to read Premier League betting tips for Sunday October 18, 2020
