IT'S Narrative Central in the Premier League this Saturday. We kick off with 'Clash of the England Keepers' as Nick Pope's Burnley welcome Jordan Pickford's Everton in a spectacle likely to do wonders for Dean Henderson's reputation, before we find out if Mike Skinner's Fulham can rack up their second big away win this week – 22/1 if you fancy it.
Next up, we have the post-Everton David Moyes Clasico as West Ham welcome Man Utd, the Hammers boss unsure how to balance his smugness at his side's superior position with his inherent inferiority complex. And last of all, Spygate II as espionage supremo Marcelo Bielsa squares off with adversary Frank Lampard at Stamford Bridge.
Burnley vs Everton | Saturday December 5, 12:30
Having finally got their season up and running against Palace, Burnley were dealt a fourth straight 5-0 hammering at Man City. The players are unlikely to be too demoralised by a result they've frankly got used to, but Sean Dyche might be, after his fledgling 4-3-3 formation had no impact. Still, you'd imagine any manager, even a disgruntled Dyche, would be optimistic ahead of a clash with Everton at the moment.
After winning their first four games, the Toffees have won one of their last six, and even the win was dispiriting with Fulham deserving, but not finding, an equaliser in their 3-2 defeat. An opening day clean sheet at Spurs was promising, especially in light of their subsequent goal-scoring, but now looks entirely misleading – Everton have no clean sheets in their last nine league games, and, incidentally, no Premier League clean sheets at Turf Moor ever.
Then again, Burnley have attempted the fewest shots on goal (83), landed the fewest on target (24), and scored the fewest Premier League goals (four) this season, so Jordan Pickford may be in for a quieter afternoon as England rival Nick Pope returns at the other end. First goal scorer bets for Chris Wood (11/2) and Dominic Calvert-Lewin (17/5) are tempting – either way, a draw seems a plausible punt here given both sides' struggles.
Match odds: Burnley (16/5) Draw (5/2) Everton (19/20)
Correct score: Burnley 1-1 Everton (11/2)
Tip: HT Draw, FT Draw (21/5)
Man City vs Fulham | Saturday December 5, 15:00
It's not often you see odds of 22/1 for a team to win a Premier League match days after beating top four hopefuls on their own patch. There are obviously reasons for this, but stranger things have happened than Fulham winning at the Etihad, and most of them have happened this year! But anyway, the reasons: City have won nine straight league games over Fulham, averaging three goals per game, and conceding 0.33. After struggling through most games in 2020/21, Pep Guardiola's side were impressive against Burnley, and ought to have bagged more than the five they did.
Sergio Aguero is not yet fully fit but with Riyad Mahrez, Ferran Torres and Phil Foden approaching top form now, the burden has been eased. After scoring in his first three games this season, Gabriel Jesus has failed to score in any of his next four – he's running out of time to capitalise on Aguero's injury so don't be surprised if he's more selfish and ruthless against Fulham.
City will have to be guarded on the break, but they really have no excuse for complacency after Ademola Lookman's opener against Leicester. Manage that effectively and it's essentially City's razor-sharp attackers up against Fulham's bang average defence.
Match odds: Man City (1/10) Draw (19/2) Fulham (22/1)
Correct score: Man City 4-1 Fulham (23/2)
Tip: Man City to win both halves (5/4)
West Ham vs Man Utd | Saturday December 5, 17:30
West Ham are above Man Utd in the table (fifth compared to ninth), they've score more goals (17 to 16), and they're conceding fewer (11 to 16). David Moyes is entitled to feel slightly smug as he prepares for this clash, especially with the Hammers having taken the lead in five consecutive matches. But then, United's last league game should offer plenty of warning.
Not only did Man Utd's 3-2 win over Southampton mean they have now claimed a whopping 75% of their points this season from losing positions – a league high – it also meant the Red Devils have won eight straight away games. In all competitions, defeats to Sevilla (2-1) and Istanbul Basaksehir (2-1) are exceptions – otherwise United have won 12 of the last 14 on the road.
Edinson Cavani, the hero of St. Mary's, has appeared for just 128 minutes in the Premier League so far, but has still amassed three goals and an assist. There will inevitably be calls for the Uruguayan to start at the London Stadium but with two match-altering contributions from the bench in his last two matches, Ole Gunnar Solskjaer, the ultimate super sub himself, may see value in holding him back. Whatever happens, West Ham's recent habit of breaking deadlocks, and United's propensity to claw games back, makes the come-from-behind win an enticing prospect at 9/1.
Match odds: West Ham (11/4) Draw (5/2) Man Utd (21/20)
Correct score: West Ham 1-2 Man Utd (7/1)
Tip: Man Utd to win after being a goal behind (9/1)
Chelsea vs Leeds | Saturday December 5, 20:00
Chelsea have the Premier League's best record at home to newly-promoted clubs – 68 wins and just three defeats in 83 games – but Leeds are not your typical promoted side as their 1-0 victory at Goodison Park – far more than the scoreline suggests – proved. Like Sheffield United in 2019/20, Marcelo Bielsa's side have immediately acclimatised. In fact, they've created more chances from open play (103) than any other side in the division.
Frank Lampard's side can gain an edge with their defensive performance however. Edouard Mendy's outstanding form continues – he has conceded just two goals in his last 13 matches for club and country, while Chelsea have the most Premier League clean sheets (five) this season. Leeds, for all their creative flair, cannot match this sort of defensive resilience with only Fulham (19) and West Brom (18) conceding more (17).
A tricky clash with Sevilla this week got an awful lot easier when Olivier Giroud struck late to seal both a 2-1 win over Rennes and qualification to the knockout stages, so in terms of preparation, this should be one of Lampard's most relaxing weeks for a while… that is unless memories of Spygate still flood his mind. Bielsa got the better of Lampard in both league matches during his Derby reign, with Lampard triumphing in the Championship play-offs. Now at Chelsea, Lampard will want to lay down a marker on the manager nominated for The Best FIFA Coach Award this week – his side are in perfect fettle to do just that.
Match odds: Chelsea (11/20) Draw (17/5) Leeds (5/1)
Correct score: Chelsea 2-0 Leeds (15/2)
Tip: Chelsea -1 (11/8)
Click here to read Premier League betting tips for Sunday December 6, 2020
