LET me start this week's Premier League betting preview by reminding everyone there will be no more international fixtures until March, 2021. Five straight months of pure club football, assuming of course there are enough available players to complete match-weeks which is by no means a given at the rate of current injuries.
This week the Barclays is back with a bang as one of Jose Mourinho's many personal feuds comes to a head in Saturday's main game as Tottenham take on Pep Guardiola's Man City. Here are your tips for that game and the rest of Saturday's action.
Newcastle vs Chelsea | Saturday November 21, 12:30
Newcastle have a good recent home record against Chelsea, with five wins and a draw from their last seven St. James' Park league meetings. Last season, Isaac Hayden kept that going with a 90th-minute winner in a 1-0 win. The Magpies recent comfortable victory over Everton showed they are more than comfortable soaking up pressure and springing out a counter, but they will have their work cut out to keep out Chelsea.
Frank Lampard's side are the highest scorers in the Premier League this season with 20 goals, and David McGoldrick's exceptionally well-crafted opener for Sheffield United is the only goal the Blues have conceded in their last six matches. Timo Werner took a few games to settle, but a goal here will see him become the first Chelsea player to score in five consecutive games since Didier Drogba in 2009. One goal and three assists in his two starts so far suggests no such settling in period will be required for Hakim Ziyech.
Werner will be licking his wounds from Germany's biggest defeat since 1931 (Tuesday's 6-0 loss to Spain), but his brace against Ukraine suggests his pre-international break form has not deserted him. I fancy Chelsea to get the win but at 12/25, I'll look at the Match Multis to spot a bit more value. Chelsea to win and Werner to score at 11/8 stands out.
Match odds: Newcastle (6/1) Draw (18/5) Chelsea (12/25)
Correct score: Newcastle 0-2 Chelsea (13/2)
Tip: Match multi – Chelsea to win and Timo Werner to score (11/8)
Aston Villa vs Brighton | Saturday November 21, 15:00
In seven league games this season, Aston Villa have won five and scored 18. Compared to last year when Villa's 18th goal arrived in their 13th game and their fifth win was achieved in the 19th, it's clear that this is a side that has significantly progressed in the last six months. Home humblings against Leeds (0-3) and Southampton (3-4) suggested the Villans were reverting to type, but that's a much tougher argument to make on the back of their 3-0 hammering of Arsenal at the Emirates.
Unfortunately for Brighton, the same narrative of year-on-year results improvement does not apply to them. The Seagulls have competed in basically every one of their eight Premier League games so far this season, but they've only won one of them. In fact, they've won more Carabao Cup matches than league games this season. The Seagulls are six league games without a win, but if Graham Potter can find comfort somewhere ahead of this clash, it's that Brighton have collected 12 of their last 15 points on the road.
No team has won more free-kicks than Aston Villa this term (103), no team has conceded more than Brighton (106), and since the start of last season, Villa's Jack Grealish has been fouled at least 52 times more than any other player (196). Grealish also happens to have scored more goals (four) against Brighton than against any other opponent, while new signing Ollie Watkins has six goals in his last five matches. All signs point to Villa's sixth win of the season.
Match odds: Aston Villa (5/4) Draw (13/5) Brighton (43/20)
Correct score: Aston Villa 3-1 Brighton (14/1)
Tip: Wincast – Aston Villa to win and Ollie Watkins to score (11/4)
Tottenham vs Man City | Saturday November 21, 17:30
Spurs lost their first game of the season but 17 points from the next 21 available has put them right back into contention at the top of the table. In fact, this match should be viewed as an early test of Spurs' title credentials. With Man City languishing down in 11th, having won just three of their seven games so far this season, averaging 1.42 goals per game, Jose Mourinho will be licking his lips, feeling he's taking on old foe Pep Guardiola at an opportune moment.
Guardiola may well receive a triple injury boost ahead of this game with Raheem Sterling, Sergio Aguero, and Fernandinho all set to rejoin first team training. It remains unclear whether any of them will start but given the importance of the fixture, it wouldn't be out of character for Guardiola to take a risk, particularly in light of that worrying goals total. Aguero has 11 goals in 16 games against Spurs – a goal record of two halves having followed up 10 goals in his first seven matches with one goal in the next nine.
There are no such attacking issues for Mourinho who can call upon arguably the top two attackers in English football at the moment. In a combined 27 matches in all competitions this season, Harry Kane (13 goals, 10 assists) and Son Heung-Min (10 goals, five assists) have a total of 38 goal involvements. That's a goal or an assist every 66 minutes – Mourinho may have inadvertently reinvented himself as an attacking coach.
On Saturday, he will surely be reverting to type, packing the edge of Tottenham's area with as many players as possible and springing counters to exploit the plentiful space in behind City's defence. That approach has served Spurs well at times this season, I think it's going to secure them a big win this weekend.
Match odds: Tottenham (16/5) Draw (3/1) Man City (41/50)
Correct score: Tottenham 2-0 Man City (20/1)
Tip: Harry Kane to score any time (33/20)
Man Utd vs West Brom | Saturday November 21, 20:00
You have to go back to July 4 for the last time Man Utd won a league game at home (5-2 vs Bournemouth). Since then, United have lost three, drawn three, and scored just five. However, this should be the game to get that particularly embarrassing monkey of their back. West Brom are in the bottom three, winless all season, having scored just one in their last five games.
The Baggies have an eye-openingly good record at Old Trafford over the last few years – three wins and a draw in the last five, clean sheets in the last two – but they're currently scoring less than one goal a game (0.75) and conceding more than two (2.1). It's tough to imagine both their lack of creativity and lack of solidity magically resolves this weekend especially after an international break.
Ole Gunnar Solskjaer is likely to have considered this a good round of international fixtures with Harry Maguire, Donny van de Beek, and Edinson Cavani all scoring in encouraging wins for their respective countries. Marcus Rashford is also expected to recover from the slight injury that saw him withdraw from England's squad.
Match odds: Man Utd (3/10) Draw (23/5) West Brom (10/1)
Correct score: Man Utd 3-1 West Brom (19/2)
Tip: Man Utd to score in both halves (19/20)
Click here to read Premier League betting tips for Sunday November 22, 2020
