AS the closing stages of Liverpool’s defeat to Manchester City played out on Sunday afternoon the Sky commentators had no hesitation in crowning the visitors champions-elect.
No team was going to catch them now, that was Gary Neville’s confident assertion. Jamie Carragher meanwhile stated that Pep Guardiola’s side had ‘one hand on the trophy’.
As for the rest of the media they too have suggested that it’s pretty much nailed on that City will secure a fifth Premier League title with only an unlikely self-implosion standing in their way. “It doesn’t look like that will happen,” Alan Shearer concluded on the BBC website.
Of course, having such faith in predicting where the prized trophy will end up is not misguided. Since losing to Spurs – their opponents this Saturday – back in late November, City have strung together 21 games unbeaten across all competitions and are emboldened by a 14-game winning streak in the league. To place that in context, it’s the best consecutive run of Guardiola’s managerial career.
Against Liverpool they artfully dismantled an arch-rival, leaving them ten points adrift, and all at a ground where they have traditionally struggled while elsewhere so many of their victories have been achieved in cruise control. As we have seen in recent times – with Klopp’s men last season and with City the year before – this is an ominous sign indeed.
Not for nothing then are City priced as such short favourites. Not for nothing are they the team to beat.
But ‘one hand on the trophy’? Really? There are some significant caveats that need to be affixed to that declaration.
First off, remember Manchester United and Leicester? They still exist; they’re still challenging and for all their limitations when flying at this rarefied altitude it’s ludicrous to reserve a title when 42% of the season has yet to be contested and just seven points separate first from third.
United are 16/1 to lift the title and for a myriad of reasons this is an astoundingly decent price.
Furthermore, will we ever learn our lesson about this bizarre season that delights in unseating our expectations and making a mockery of any certainty. In researching City’s hosting of Tottenham an article was unearthed that was written following Spurs’ 2-0 triumph in the corresponding fixture. It stated absolutely that the North London giants would be in the title mix throughout and that was largely because Jose Mourinho remains a ‘serial winner’.
A serial winner? Presently, the perma-scowling coach could fall into a barrel of Coco Pops and emerge chewing dry toast and that’s because ever since that impressive victory his team have accrued just 16 points from a possible 48. Spurs have become overly cautious and far too predictable and the optimism of last Autumn feels like an awfully long time ago.
Even so, looking ahead to this Saturday’s clash brings up another potential stumbling block for City because it’s a stark reminder that in the next three chaotic weeks they must face five teams who reside in the top ten. Goodison awaits. The Emirates awaits. As too do in-form West Ham and Manchester United. These are pivotal moments all.
And yet strangely, it’s the Spurs game that plants the largest seed of doubt into City’s title credentials. That’s right, Spurs: the overly cautious, predictable team who have won just three of their last 13 outings.
In recent years something decidedly odd has materialized whenever these two sides meet. It’s too early to call it a curse exactly but it’s certainly heading in that direction. And perhaps it’s enough to distort the otherwise straightforward form of City and Spurs that contrasts as chalk and cheese.
It began when Sergio Aguero missed a penalty in a Champions League quarter final first leg in London back in April 2019. Granted, there is nothing particularly startling about a saved spot-kick but it’s worth noting that City have missed two in this fixture in the last six encounters.
The return leg meanwhile lavished us with a highly entertaining basketball affair that finished 4-3 with Spurs progressing via away goals but their third and crucial strike remains contentious to this day. From a corner Fernando Llorente bundled it home, the ball rolling down his arm on route but after much consultation it was deemed to be accidental and was allowed. So plainly unfair was this decision that it prompted UEFA to change their rules that summer.
At the death City threw the proverbial kitchen sink at their opponents looking for a last gasp winner and this duly arrived when Raheem Sterling slammed one home with seconds to spare. The Etihad erupted into sheer carnage. The celebrations were raw and incredible.
Only VAR had been introduced into the Champions League that season and after several minutes of confusion it was determined that several hairs from Aguero’s kneecap had been peaking offside during the build-up. It was a cruel deprival of glory. Maybe the cruelest.
Fast-forward just a few months to August and the start of a new campaign. City and Spurs were locked at 2-2 with just moments to spare when a corner was floated over that was flicked on by Aymeric Laporte to Gabriel Jesus who gleefully guided the ball past Hugo Lloris. Again there was carnage at the Etihad and again this was followed by VAR drama as replays showed the ball had lightly brushed the defender’s arm.
The ball didn’t alter its direction and Laporte was actually pushed in flight but none of this mattered. The ruling brought in to atone for City’s cruel Champions League exit had now staggeringly bitten them against the same opponent in a similar circumstance. Accidental handball was now viewed as handball.
Unbelievably, the corresponding game last season saw yet more VAR controversy go Spurs’ way. That second penalty alluded to earlier was easily saved by Lloris who then went on to clumsily haul down Sterling as the ball span free. It was a spot-kick as clear as day yet occurring in the same passage of play as the awarded penalty this seemed to throw the officials. VAR said no.
If all of these examples have not convinced you that some kind of witchcraft is afoot in this fixture then consider the stats. In the last three meetings Spurs have had seven shots on target combined. They have scored from six of them. In those same games City racked up 71 shots (on target and off) to Tottenham’s ten. The Blues have only a point to show for it.
All of which leaves us with these unadorned numbers that don’t do justice to the injustice that created them: that Spurs have lost only two of their previous six meetings with City, and for what it’s worth, Jose Mourinho has won three from his last four clashes with his old adversary Guardiola (including his time with United).
It was generally thought that Anfield would be the Blues’ ultimate litmus test. Maybe, due to a trail of misfortune that genuinely astounds, everyone was six days out?
