A team dominating the league and threatening to go the entire season unbeaten. The same side accused of not taking the FA Cup seriously as they rest their first-choice goalkeeper for knockout matches. Liverpool in 2019-20 yes, but also Preston North End in 1888-89.
The more times change, the more they stay the same. Those two North End goalkeepers, James Trainer (the Victorian Alisson) and Robert Mills-Roberts (the Steam Age Adrian, or Boer War Caoimhin Kelleher if you prefer) performed strongly enough that Preston won both competitions without losing a single game.
Had they not done so, the Lancashire side would not boast the honours that allow them strut around as the only champions of England never to feature in the Premier League. Goalkeepers, in whatever era, are vital, so here’s an update about how they’re all getting on as we approach the run-in.
First PL goal Alisson has let in since November 23rd, which is two months ago according to calendar experts.
— Duncan Alexander (@oilysailor) January 23, 2020
The Super Savers
Sometimes the numbers happily reflect what your eyes can see, and the numbers say that Alisson has been the most reliable goalkeeper in the Premier League this season, saving 87% of the shots he has faced. The Brazilian, who you’d implicitly trust to catch a dog falling from a tall tree, has let in only six goals in 17 games this season, one fewer than Claudio Bravo has let in in four matches.
Behind Alisson in second and third place are Hugo Lloris (perpetually the most misunderstood goalkeeper in the Premier League) with an 80% rate and then Dean Henderson on 75%. The Sheffield United loanee has let in only 21 goals in 25 games, considerably better numbers than the senior goalkeeper at his parent club, aka David De Gea, who has conceded 29 goals in 25 matches and has a save percentage of 69%. If we look at goalkeepers performing above or below the xG of shots on target they’ve faced then the top three is Newcastle’s Martin Dubravka (who has prevented an additional seven goals) followed by Henderson and Lloris. Palace’s Vicente Guaita and Watford’s Ben Foster round out the top five.
Butter:fingers
For every heroic goalkeeper spitting into a pair of Sondicos and berating defenders for vague positional errors, there are the cowed glovesmen, staring the thousand yard stare as another one slips through. The Premier League boasts the most expensive goalkeeper in the history of association football, Kepa Arrizabalaga, and he is not having a good campaign.
Kepa’s save percentage of just over 50% (56%) is a coin toss of a season and he is bottom of the pile when it comes to goals prevented based on xG. The model estimates an average goalkeeper would have conceded around 24 goals based on the shots on target Kepa has faced, but he has let in 32, only seven fewer than he did in the whole of 2018-19. Also down there in the underperforming stakes are the likes of Angus Gunn and Tom Heaton, and two of England’s predicted squad for Euro 2020, Nick Pope and Jordan Pickford, more of which later.
The Goal Kick Aesthetes
We are now well over halfway through the first Premier League season where goal kicks can be played to a team-mate within the penalty area and the trends we saw in the autumn have only become more pronounced over the winter. Matt Ryan still leads the way, on 107 now, with a binary approach to the game: [Pass to another Brighton player in the box? If poss. If too risky, ping it out to the left wing, BUT NEVER THE RIGHT. Tried it once, did not like it at all]. Other intra-box exponents include Bernd Leno, who loves a central pass forward within the area (ask Watford) and de Gea, who was perhaps expected to be a late adopter of the new law but when your midfield is lacking a certain something, what are you going to do?
Dean Henderson has already been mentioned but his goal kick distribution is a thing of purity, with none being played inside the box yet. Among other things this opens up a new paradigm in Sheffield United punditry: Uniformed pundit: Sheffield United? Long ball team. Is Neil Warnock still there? Partly informed pundit: Sheffield United are a progressive and unique team under the shrewd guidance of Chris Wilder. Super informed pundit: Dean Henderson is a long ball team.
Southgate’s Choice
While Henderson’s choice of goal kick is his own decision (or his manager’s anyway) it does open up an urgent conversation about England’s choice of goalkeeper for this summer. Of the expected options, Henderson has clearly had the best campaign in terms of stopping shots going into the goal [aka Classic Goalkeeping] but Gareth Southgate wants more from his number one [aka Nu Goalkeeping].
Current national ‘keeper Pickford recorded an 82% pass completion rate in England’s 3-2 win in Spain in the Nations League, and that’s something that Henderson, the goalkeeper with the lowest pass completion in the Premier League this season, probably can’t offer. Midway between the two in all senses is Nick Pope but that really doesn’t feel like an altogether inspiring route to take. The slot is still Pickford’s to lose but some actual saves between now and May would go a long way to ease a nation’s nerves ahead of the start of the Euros.
