SIX-TIME European Cup/Champions League winners Liverpool sit top of the pile as the only team to win all six of their league phase games so far. This, along with their excellent Premier League form throughout 2024-25 makes them the most likely winners of the competition this season, with Opta’s supercomputer giving them a 21% chance of lifting the trophy in Germany in May.

The Reds (4/1 favourites) are the only team guaranteed to go through to the last 16, while there is currently just 5 points separating 18 teams between Barcelona (15 points) in 2^nd place and Club Brugge (10 points) in 19^th.

It really is all to play for with two games left and so many variations of the potential top 8 which puts teams directly into the last 16 without having to navigate the ko round playoff. While Barcelona have a 97% chance of reaching the last 16 after 5 wins from their 6 games so far, the Opta supercomputer gives them the fourth-best chance of lifting the trophy (6.7%) and Unibet odds of 6/1.

The team who Opta currently predicts as having the second-best chance of winning the Champions League this season is Inter Milan (18%) – one of 6 teams (from 3^rd-8^th) on 13 points – followed by Arsenal (14.1%, also 13 points). If you agree with Opta and fancy Inter Milan to go all the way, interestingly, you can back the Italian champions to lift the trophy at 16/1 with Unibet, double the price of the top 6 in the betting, including Arsenal (11/2). Opta also give them a 31% of reaching the final, which can be backed at a very reasonable 6/1.

The only other team with more than 6% chance of winning the competition is reigning champs Real Madrid (6.2%) who, after a slightly inconsistent start to the season find themselves 20^th in the league phase table on 9 points. They’ll need to win their last two games against Club Brugge and Brest and hope that others falter to get into top 8 and thus directly into the last 16. Opta gives them only a 1% chance of this happening, with the reliance on other fixtures going their way. Therefore they’ll likely have to come through the extra playoff round to reach the last 16 (which Opta gives them a 70% chance) if they’re going to continue their dominance in this competition, as winners of 6 of the last 11 runnings. Although, you wouldn’t put past Los Blancos to find themselves in better form in the spring and go deep in the competition as they nearly always do. With a 40% chance of reaching the quarter-finals, their odds (11/2) will indeed be a lot shorter than they are currently if they do make it!

Reigning Premier League champions Man City are currently languishing in 22^nd place, with their next opponents PSG further down in 25^th and currently going out. A mouth-watering clash between them awaits, with Opta still giving both teams a high chance of reaching the knockout playoff round at the very least (87% for Man City and 72% for PSG). Overall, the two sides have a 4.4% (Man City) and 2.6% (PSG) chance of winning the whole thing, respectively.

Such is the open nature of this new format that (although unlikely) teams as far down as 32^nd placed RB Salzburg can technically still make it through with a couple of wins and others dropping out.

This makes for an exciting climax to the revamped league phase and also has an extra interesting component in that the top 8 also get seeded in the last 16 and can’t play each other, which will lead to some huge matchups if some of the big hitters like Real Madrid, Man City, PSG and Juventus, who currently find themselves outside the top 8, can safely come through their playoff rounds.

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