OLLIE Watkins isn’t the first forward to greatly benefit from working under Unai Emery, and he probably won’t be the last. But even within that shared pool of players who have developed under the eye of Emery, it’s clear that the Villa man is starting to become a unique case.
Watkins recently passed 50 league appearances under the Spanish coach, during which time he has undertaken the journey from well-rounded number nine to one of the outright most productive players in the Premier League. Indeed, with a combined 26 goals and assists in 27 games in the competition this term, the Villa man is currently outpacing the rest of the field in 2023-24.
It might only be March, but Watkins is already within reach of a piece of Aston Villa history. Should he score or assist against Spurs on Sunday, he will equal Dwight Yorke for the most direct goal involvements in a single Premier League campaign for the club. And with potentially another 11 appearances in store for him this term, it seems likely that a new record will not only be set, but perhaps be put beyond reach for the foreseeable future.
Most combined goals and assists in Premier League seasons for Aston Villa
In strictly goalscoring terms, Watkins goes into the weekend three behind Christian Benteke for the best scoring seasons by a Villa player in the Premier League. However, should he find the net against Spurs, he would establish a new record for the most non-penalty goals for the club in a Premier League campaign (17).
Most goals in Premier League seasons for Aston Villa
Watkins’ production this term is notable for many reasons, but there are two in particular that make his season a unique one. Firstly, for the fact he’s doing it in a team unlikely to be competing to win the title (Opta’s prediction model gives Villa a 0.3% chance of finishing first). And secondly, for the fact of being an Englishman putting up the best numbers in the Premier League.
The 28-year-old is currently on track to hit 30 combined goals and assists in the Premier League this season; the last Englishman not named Harry Kane to manage that was Jamie Vardy, back in Leicester’s title-winning campaign in 2016-17.
Overall, only 13 English players in Premier League history have hit 30+ goal involvements in a single season, while only four have managed to do it this century: Harry Kane, Jamie Vardy, Wayne Rooney and Frank Lampard.
English players with 30+ goals and assists in a Premier League season this century
Of course, one might suggest Watkins is leading the pack this season because he’s had more minutes to go at. The Villa striker has played 2,388 minutes in the Premier League this term, over 500 more than his two closest competitors – Mohamed Salah and Erling Haaland.
But then again, availability is most certainly an attribute in today’s game. To listen to his manager speak, it’s clear that Watkins’ consistency in performance and presence isn’t something that happens by mere chance.
Commenting after their recent victory over Luton, the Villa boss laid out the reasons for why, in his mind, Watkins is now one of the top strikers across Europe:
“His mentality, to increase his level, practising and practising on the training ground. His commitment to work in the tactical areas we are planning every match.
He’s scoring, he’s getting chances, he’s assisting, defending set-pieces. He has been available to play 90 minutes more or less, keeping fit to play a lot. He’s fantastic.”
While 2023-24 is proving to be the most fruitful of Watkins’ career to date, it’s less of a sudden explosion than it is a steady upward trajectory over the years – particularly since Unai Emery arrived in the midlands.
Across his 51 games in the Premier League under the Spaniard, the Villa forward has averaged a goal or assist every 103 minutes – the best ratio of anyone with 50+ games under a Villa manager in the competition, and by quite a significant margin.
Best mins per goal or assists ratios for Villa players under specific managers in the Premier League (min. 50 apps)
As they prepare to return to league action, where Villa are hoping to record a top four finish in the top-flight for the first time since 1996, they will be hoping Watkins’ individual season is still yet to reach its peak of performance.
According to Opta’s prediction model, Villa currently have a 66% chance of qualifying for the UEFA Champions League this season – the fourth-highest probability. The team just behind them on that list just so happens to be Spurs (33%), a fact which makes their clash at Villa Park on Sunday one of the most consequential games in their respective seasons so far.
As Ange Postecoglou’s side look to launch their own prospects in their first season since Harry Kane’s departure, Villa are driving their own push through the multi-functional English forward who has – so far – done an admirable job in filling his boots.
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