APOLOGIES if you think differently but there are only really three Premier League local derbies of note: those in Manchester, Liverpool and north London. Each has its own character; Manchester’s is a battle of brooding neighbours whose once concrete-hard pecking order has radically shifted.
Liverpool’s is a raucous night out on Christmas Eve between two brothers, the younger of whom has had a more successful life and lives in his older sibling’s former home. The north London derby though: this is one between two rivals who think they are rightful kings of their domain but in reality, need the other to validate their existence.
Tottenham, a big club who haven’t won the league for a long time.
Arsenal: “guys, you should come and see what we’re doing.”
Arsenal, a club with a state of the art stadium built near the site of their long-term home.
Tottenham: “near the old ground? Watch this. Also, don’t bring cash.”
Arsenal versus Tottenham is the biggest derby in England. No doubt about it, whatsoever. Elite.
— FK ☕️ (@fkhanage) August 28, 2019
Sunday’s meeting of the sides comes early (the earliest since Arsenal defeated the newly Gareth Bale-less Tottenham 1-0 in 2013) but a repeat of the drama in last season’s six goal romp in December would not go amiss. To recap, Arsenal were deep into their statistically unlikely unbeaten run (this was, somehow, their 19th game without defeat), aka ‘the one when they were invariably behind at half-time but came back to draw or win after the break’.
This NLD was the perfect example: Spurs ahead at half-time against the run of play, before Aubameyang, Lacazette and very-much-so-Lucas-Torreira sealed the points and generated one of the best atmospheres yet seen/heard at the Emirates. That match also contained two penalties, and no fixture in Premier League history has seen the referee point to the spot more than this. In the VAR paradigm do not imagine that there will not be one on Sunday.
Meanwhile, Tottenham are staggering after a home loss to Newcastle that nobody saw coming, and Arsenal are still in the top three even after their annual punch in the nose at Anfield. With Manchester United’s revival looking wildly overstated and Chelsea a work in progress, this game should provide a strong indication about who can come third behind the Relentless Two in 2019-20.
On the face of it, Arsenal look slightly better off, particularly as they’ll be at home; Tottenham may have won at the Emirates in the League Cup last season but they have not won consecutive visits to their arch-rivals since Harry Houdini died in 1926: yes, it’s proven hard to escape from Islington with the points. Arsenal also look like the team whose approach and execution will determine the outcome of the game. It feels, therefore, like there are two scenarios which could play out, namely:
The day has arrived!#NLD ⚪️ ⚪️ #TOTARS pic.twitter.com/V5IGsWqMl9
— Arsenal (@Arsenal) March 2, 2019
Sunday Scenario One is that Arsenal’s budding counter-attacking prowess is rewarded with more Tottenham-slaying joy. Unai Emery’s team have been involved in more direct attacks (an open play sequence that starts just inside the team’s half and has at least 50% of movement towards the opposition’s goal, with that team ending with a shot or touch in opposition box) than any other Premier League team this season, their average of 3.3 per game almost double the rate seen last season.
They are also starting possessions closer to their own goal than any other team, 35.8 metres on average if you like that sort of thing. Like a vicious submarine commander, to make this approach work then the deeper you start the better. In Scenario One, Arsenal utilise the speed of their attackers, and with Dani Ceballos prompting from midfield like he did against Burnley, they cut Tottenham to shreds and cruise to a win even more dramatic than last December’s.
|
Arsenal PL |
Total Direct Attacks |
Direct Attacks per Game |
League Rank |
|
2019/2020 |
10 |
3.3 |
1 |
|
2018/2019 |
69 |
1.8 |
6 |
|
2017/2018 |
77 |
2.0 |
6 |
Sunday Scenario Two is that Arsenal’s enthusiasm for lurking and countering will catch them out, especially against a team as adept at pressing as Spurs. As the graphic below shows, Arsenal lead the league this season in being dispossessed in their own defensive zone, with the relatively small proportion of those turnovers that have resulted in shots suggesting they’ve actually ridden their luck.
Check out Aston Villa in second place, a team who just happened to face Tottenham in their opening game (also witness Burnley at the bottom: it seems fair to say that Sean Dyche’s attempts to build the third Death Star have been utterly successful). In Scenario Two, Tottenham soak up the early Arsenal pressure, rob them of the ball in dangerous areas and ensure that Harry Kane becomes only the third player in the fixture’s long history to reach double figures for goals.
So which of these outcomes will happen? Yes, there’s the feared Scenario Three where two old rivals neutralise each other into a bleak 0-0 but it’s more than 10 years since that happened, and seriously, these two teams? Nil-nil?
