ANY head-to-heads involving Newcastle are largely redundant these days due to their transformative takeover in the autumn of 2021. Most of their previous meetings with the Gunners have seen the Magpies pitted very much as the underdog, with a limited side presided over by an average manager.

Still, for what it’s worth, St James’ Park has been a prosperous ground for Arsenal down the years, losing just three of their last 20 trips to the North-East.

And it would hardly be a surprise if that terrific record was extended this weekend, for all that the hosts are now established among the elite and typically a formidable proposition at home. That’s because Eddie Howe’s collective are presently weakened, and significantly so, by injuries and unavailable players.

Down the flanks, Jacob Murphy and summer signing Harvey Barnes have been big misses, while Sandro Tonali’s lengthy absence is officially underway. At the back meanwhile Sven Botman is expected to return soon and Howe will be counting the days because in the five games the imposing Dutchman has played this season Newcastle have conceded every 112 minutes. In the five he’s missed, they’ve been breached every 64 minutes.

The Magpies have picked up 12 more cautions than Arsenal, a difference of 1.2 per game. They are 23/20 to receive the most cards this Saturday

Then there’s Alexander Isak, scorer of nearly a quarter of their league goals who has succumbed to a groin problem. The Swede’s movement and clever lay-offs has played a fundamental part in Newcastle outscoring the rest of the Premier League to this juncture, as well as racking up the most big chances.

Naturally, in Callum Wilson, Howe also happens to possess one hell of an understudy, if that term doesn’t do a terrible disservice to a striker who has made four starts and fired seven league goals to date. Having converted twice last week at Wolves, the England international has only improved on an already remarkable set of stats for his season. No player has scored more goals per 90 (1.50). No player boasts a better xG per 90 (1.27). No player has committed to more shots on target per 90 (3.2).

The 31-year-old is in the form of his life and will chase down Saliba and co all afternoon.

Over 0.5 shots on target for Wilson is a shout at 8/11 and is a real contender for any bet builder

Speaking of understudies, Arsenal too must turn to their back-up striker on Saturday evening and similarly there is scant drop-off in prolificacy, Eddie Nketiah’s form gaining him an international call-up recently.

With Gabby Jesus out for the foreseeable, Arsenal’s frontline is in safe hands with a forward who blasted a highly impressive hat-trick last week, but here there are caveats whereas with Wilson there’s none.

Eleven of Nketiah’s last 12 league goals have been scored at the Emirates while out of possession the Gunners will miss Jesus’ work-rate in a game of this ilk. Only two players have won possession more in the final third than the Brazilian in 2023/24.

Regardless, Arsenal have plenty of attacking threats elsewhere even if Nketiah does get home-sick. Bukayo Saka has either scored or assisted every 95 minutes this term across all comps and furthermore has done so in each of his last three away games. Martin Odegaard is averaging 1.7 key passes and 2.5 progressive carries and was outstanding when these teams last met in May.

It’s pertinent too that Gabby Martinelli is looking sharper by the week after his brief lay-off.

Over 1.5 goals for the Gunners and over 4.5 corners is good value at 3/1

As for Newcastle, it would be entirely remiss not to highlight once again Kieran Trippier’s incredible input down their right. In addition to keeping Martinelli in check, the seemingly ageless defender will be charged with bounding into space vacated by an inverted Zinchenko and conjuring up opportunities as he is so often inclined to do.

Only Mo Salah has created more big chances this season. Only Pedro Neto has out-done the 33-year-old in assists.

Broadening our scope, we should feel legitimately short-changed if this one is a low-scoring, tight affair, what with Newcastle having the second best xG total in the league and Arsenal unbeaten and flying.

A combined nine clean sheets kept in 20 however should at least give us pause for thought. These are sides whose excellence is built on solidity.

Even so, both teams are in the top three for chance conversion and it particularly intrigues as to when they’re putting these chances away.

Newcastle have scored the most goals in first-halves this term. Indeed, in six of their 10 outings they have notched inside 25 minutes.

Arsenal for their part tend to get stronger as games go on, scoring 16 of their 23 after the break.

Newcastle United/Draw tempts at a generous 12/1