IN the last calendar year, Manchester City have only lost twice to a top 8 opponent. One of those defeats came in North London against Spurs on the opening day of this season.
To what extent that result relates to what might unfold at the Etihad this Saturday is negligible to say the least. Pep Guardiola’s men went into that game on the back of a truncated pre-season and looked under-prepared, with Spurs notably sharper and more season-ready. And then Son Heung-min scored because he always seems to in this fixture. The Korean forward has notched five in his last seven meetings with the Blues.
Six days later, City dismantled Norwich in a manner we’ve all become accustomed to, and they were off, racking up victories on a weekly basis and dominating the English footballing landscape once again. Bar a bad day at the office at home to Crystal Palace back in October, City have been magnificent this term, scoring 2.4 goals per game and keeping more clean sheets at this stage of the campaign than at any other time under Guardiola. Since that loss to the Eagles, they have accrued 42 points from a possible 45.
City are evens to win to nil and this is a tempting addition to any bet builder
Naturally then, there is a lot to unpack regarding the numerous and serious threats that the hosts pose to a Spurs side in disarray, but one aspect jumps out, demanding attention and that is City’s propensity to score early.
As game strategies go, it’s a handy one to be able to regularly pull off and that is especially true in City’s case because going in front in the opening phases prevents the opposition rearguard from settling into a rhythm and growing in belief. Furthermore, it affords the reigning champions the opportunity to take control of a contest, to dictate the tempo, and it’s hard to think of any other team around who does this better. In 2021/22, Manchester City have scored 15 times in the first 25 minutes of Premier League games, typically extending on this advantage in their own measured time. They have gone ahead 20 times this season and won on each occasion.
If that bodes badly for Tottenham, it only gets worse because compounding their recent struggles is an unwelcome new trait for conceding early. Five of the last ten league goals against them have come inside 25 minutes.
Backing a goal to be scored – by either team – between 0.00-14.59 offers up 7/4
In losing to Wolves last weekend, it happened twice, both times a consequence of defensive mishap and their hemorrhaging of goals of late is not only uncharacteristic of the club but is frankly bizarre given that Antonio Conte is in charge. In his last seven full seasons as a club coach the Italian’s well-drilled teams have conceded only 209 goals from 266 games which equates to a concession every 109 minutes. That has collapsed to a goal every 40 minutes in the last month.
The absences of Eric Dier and Oliver Skipp partly explain their latest woes; two players who exactly get their new manager’s methodology and were performing well, but systems are also a factor. Ask any Spurs supporter how he or she would prefer their team to set up right now and they will espouse a 3-5-2, a formation that best suits the personnel and a formation that Conte used to formidable affect when at former employers. Instead, however, a 3-4-2-1 is deployed, not always but often and their midfield is overrun and if they go with this shape again on Saturday – which admittedly is unlikely – a thumping is distinctly possible.
The Blues are 17/20 to compile over 17.5 shots. They have averaged 24.4 per game this season
Up front meanwhile the ongoing travails of Harry Kane may have taken an upturn under Conte but only marginally so. He is now scoring one in three as opposed to one in never, and some prolificacy is desperately needed considering Spurs are hardly a side that shares around the goals. Only eight other players have got onto the scoresheet in the league compared to 16 from striker-less City and most damning of all, only seven of Tottenham’s goals this season have come courtesy of their defence and midfield. Just four other teams in the top-flight have been furnished with fewer from their back-line and engine room.
So, will Kane come up with the goods and rescue his failing and flailing team as he’s done so many times before? As stated already, it is Son who will likely cause Ruben Dias and company problems and it’s pertinent that the England striker traditionally struggles against City. His two goals in 13 is his worst record against any Premier League side he’s faced more than five times.
At the other end, Raheem Sterling and Bernardo Silva are two of only a handful of Premier League players who have scored four match-winners this season. Either would be a good shout as a last goal-scorer but it’s with bookings that real value can be found with both sides faring well in the fair play table. Back against a card-fest in what should be a comfortable victory for the home side in a fixture that was, until recently, a grind for them.
