MANCHESTER derbies have an unwelcome habit of pulling the rug from beneath your feet.

In all-but-one of the last nine local dust-ups there has been a goal scored beyond the 80^th minute. Indeed, there has been 12 late strikes all told, with only a couple of them consolations or inconsequential cherries on top.

To put this into perspective, 34.2% of the goals scored in this fixture since November 2021 have come during a period where typically 17% of goals are converted.

Last time out, at the Etihad, there were two twists in the tail, both conjured up by the visitors to turn a fairly drab contest completely on its head. For a good part of an hour City had successfully maintained a goal advantage, managing to suppress their many shortcomings that had resulted in them suffering a string of surprising losses going into the game.

Only then, in the dying embers, Matheus Nunes played a ridiculous crossfield pass that was intercepted by Amad Diallo who hared towards goal. Nunes panicked and thundered after his opponent, colliding with him in the box. And from the moment Bruno Fernandes put away his spot-kick City were unmasked, their failings all-too-evident and for all to see.

It felt inevitable that a winner would follow, impressively dispatched by the same player who had won United their pen.

Fernandes’ spot-kick was the fourth penalty scored in the last eight derbies. 11/5 says there will be another awarded on Sunday

Back then, amidst sustained crisis and a succession of poor results, Bruno Fernandes was United’s only example of genuine quality and Amad their only source of adventure, but it could be reasoned he has since been replaced in this role by Alejandro Garnacho.

Initially out of favour under Ruben Amorim, the Argentine winger has so often in recent months been the Reds’ only unpredictable outlet, an x-factor surrounded by ABC fare.

On Tuesday evening at the City Ground, he took on six shots, a bounty that can be added to eight shots on target in his five outings prior, and though it’s unlikely history will repeat itself in terms of late heroics he will be central to anything good United produce.

Back Garnacho to have over 0.5 SOT at 23/25

Elsewhere, well where do you start with a club that has changed their manager, remodeled their set-up and refurnished in several positions, yet remain a floundering basket case?

With a meagre win rate of 31.6%, Amorim has the worst record of any United boss post-Ferguson and if they were just plain bad under Erik Ten Hag, now they appear disjointed and lost for the most part.

It is a situation not helped by having an attack that is blunter than an opinionated nanna. Joshua Zirkzee’s ability to remain anonymous despite being 6ft 4 is a genuinely impressive feat. Rasmus Hojlund meanwhile has scored every 8.2 hours in the league this term, his presence routinely ineffective.

“We have a lack of goals,” Amorim said deadpan, after seeing his side rack up 23 attempts at Forest yet still draw a blank. His solution late-on was to bring on Harry Maguire up front and astonishingly – as per The xG Philsophy on X – the England defender accumulated more xG in added-on time than Hojlund has in his last 15 appearances.

The knock-on effects from missing a cutting edge is substantial. For one thing, it largely explains why United are such reliable slow starters, only scoring first on nine occasions in the 28 games Amorim has overseen.

Moreover, it places greater pressure on a defence that has its own problems to deal with.

The Reds have gone eight Premier League matches at Old Trafford without keeping a clean sheet. They have conceded 2+ goals in 46.6 of their league fixtures in 2024/25.

City over 1.5 goals is a shout at 10/13. If Fernandes and/or Garnacho show up Manchester City to win and BTTS also tempts at 49/20

A reasonable response to the tip above would be to wonder why it’s assumed City’s attack can break down the hosts twiceover, no matter how poorly constructed their rearguard is.

After all, Pep Guardiola makes the four-mile journey west minus Erling Haaland, scorer of 36.8% of his team’s goals this season. Furthermore this is unquestionably not the free-scoring, free-flowing City of recent times.

Pertinently, they have converted once or not at all in over half of their away fixtures since August.

Yet if it’s erroneous to suggest that City are back, they are certainly in recovery mode, finding an even keel after flailing for an awfully long time.

Their cup performance at Bournemouth last weekend was evidence of this, arguably their most complete since their autumn collapse took hold. It was a throwback to the countless times they have nullified an opposition’s threat – the Cherries were restricted to just five shots throughout – while killing them at the other end via a thousand cuts.

Against Leicester midweek it was a similar story. Scoring early the Blues took a stranglehold on possession and, even in third gear throughout, confidently controlled the narrative.

In the latter, Jack Grealish stood out, deployed as a number 10 and constantly floating into pockets of space. He is an interesting possible starter on Sunday for sure, as Kevin De Bruyne’s fitness issues persist and with Phil Foden needed elsewhere.

Speaking of Foden, he has notched six goals in his last five league derbies.

On the left, Jeremy Doku should feature, forcing Dalot back and ensuring the host’s 3-4-2-1 shape becomes an ill-balanced Christmas tree. Then there’s Omar Marmoush, yet to score away from the Etihad in the league but that will change very soon. The Egyptian took on exactly half of City’s shots vs Leicester – a hefty nine – and boasts three in three across all comps.

There are a number of ‘Marmoush to score’ options in the popular bet builder market. Let’s go with the following…

Manchester City/Manchester City, Marmoush to score, City over 5.5 SOT and over 2.5 total goals is well worth a punt at 17/2

In summation then, it’s the visitors who are fancied to prevail, they being in the best shape and crucially dealing with counter attacks much more efficiently since Nico Gonzalez signed.

But if the bets above are coming in and there is mere minutes left on the clock, get those nails bitten. This fixture loves late drama more than most.

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