FOOTBALL is full of cliches – received wisdom that is accepted over and over again. One of those cliches, some of that wisdom, is the strength of football teams “on paper”.
Despite the game never being played on paper, the football world can’t resist referencing it. It’s real-world fantasy football.
On paper, Manchester City have got this season's Premier League title all sewn up with odds currently reading 2-5 compared to Liverpool’s 2-1. The unknown is known, it seems.
Equally, at the start of the season, City on paper were clear favourites to win a sixth top division title after finishing the last campaign 19 points clear of second-placed Manchester United (and 25 of Liverpool).
Man City Champions 2018 Get in #mcfc pic.twitter.com/cIQnbvkDVB
— Kev P (@kevpryde) May 6, 2018
Before a ball was kicked, The BBC asked 24 of its TV and radio pundits which team would win the Premier League. Twenty one picked Manchester City. Three picked Liverpool.
Thirty-one league games later, Liverpool are top of the tree having accrued a point more than they managed in a full season last time out. A point that right now puts Jurgen Klopp’s side clear of Pep Guardiola’s.
Many of those pundits quizzed by the BBC back in the summer expected Liverpool – and Manchester United (!) – to get closer to City this season. But they still unquestionably predicted a stroll for an expensively-assembled side aiming to be the first to win back-to-back Premier League titles since 2009.
Away from the paper and on the grass it hasn’t unfolded that way. A team that, in May, was prompting debate around it being the best this country had witnessed in more than a quarter of a century has now found itself matched and, at times, bettered by Liverpool.
Unbeaten in the #PL at the halfway stage:
Arsenal 2003/04
Man Utd 2010/11
Man City 2017/18
Liverpool 2018/19Will Liverpool emulate the other three and go on to win the title? pic.twitter.com/lWYfuVtv33
— Premier League (@premierleague) December 29, 2018
And as the distraction of international football fades and preparations begin for the final tilts at the title, City’s paper this season is blotted by plenty of marks that should fuel optimism in red ranks.
In all competitions draws with Wolves, Liverpool, Lyon, Leicester and Chelsea, and defeats to Lyon, Chelsea, Crystal Palace, Leicester and Newcastle suggest fallibility in the feared.
And should that prove to be the case, and City again drop points, are Liverpool ready to take advantage?
Most would agree that on paper Manchester City have a stronger squad. But on paper City have a tougher-looking fixture list, including more games away from home.
Further, Liverpool could and should soon have close to a full complement of first-team players to choose from for the run-in – the first time that has been the case all season.
The huge end goal of a Premier League title lights up above all else but what paper can’t show for those players is the individual targets and motivations that could make Liverpool’s squad extra-hungry for the final two months of a long season.
Joe Gomez is back in training, he should be starting again soon.
Joel Matip has done a decent job, with a few mistakes, but will always be third in the pecking order behind Virgil and Joe. #LFC pic.twitter.com/eDehxLZolJ
— Nic Mason (@MrNickMason) March 28, 2019
Take Joe Gomez for example, a man who a short time ago was the number one choice to partner Virgil van Dijk at centre half, was a regular for England and was being spoken of in the most glowing of terms when discussions focused on the relative merits of the country’s best defenders.
The 21-year-old has been forced to watch on since December after a Ben Mee challenge led to a broken leg at Burnley.
Almost four months on, his motivation to return, to prove his worth, to play a part, surely can’t have ever been higher. If his legs allow it you can’t picture a mind anything but finely tuned for what’s required in April and May.
The same applies to Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain, who has missed almost a year of football through injury.
Caution must surround the fitness of both players – but should the medics say yes, valuable contributions will likely follow from the well-loved pair.
#SuperSalah: Phil Thompson says @MoSalah will be the difference in the #PL title race for #LFC
️ "When you need him, he always comes to the party." pic.twitter.com/ssaf7aisyj
— Mo Salah Facts (@MoSalahFacts) March 28, 2019
Elsewhere, 20-goal Mo Salah will want to silence the doubters that gleefully point to a seven-game goal drought while Sadio Mane will be desperate to continue his streak of seven goals in five matches.
Further back in the side, Adam Lallana, now 30, will want to underline his worth, Xherdan Shaqiri will be itching to show he can contribute to the level he did in December while Naby Keita must be more than aware that he needs to pull out a performance or two between now and May.
Dejan Lovren, Joel Matip – many of the squad, despite Liverpool’s collective brilliance this season, can’t take things for granted individually.
It’s why paper can never tell the full story. It’s why we love football. And it’s why the predictable is often anything but.
On paper, it’s City’s. But you can bet big that Liverpool will do everything to rip that paper to shreds before the season is out.
