LAST week, the column undertook a deep dive into the career of Scottie Scheffler, discussing how he was changed from a golfer who contended into a golfer who both contends and converts. Moreover, we noted the importance of his caddie, Ted Scott, in this transformation, which made it all the more fascinating to watch the final round of the St Jude Championship. Because, without Scott on his bag, Scheffler was bang in the hunt with 18 holes to play yet left without the trophy.
This week, we’ll take a closer look at the state of another American star because the BMW Championship has had a profound impact on Patrick Cantlay’s career.
Back in 2017, towards the end of his first PGA Tour campaign, a top 10 at Conway Farms guaranteed Cantlay’s participation in the season-ending Tour Championship, an achievement that is always a hint of significant potential in a rookie.
Two years later, he was second at Medinah, and a year after that he shared the halfway lead on his way to T12 at Olympia Fields. In 2021, on this week’s course, Caves Valley (not as prosaically named as Conway Farms, but still a little like an uninspired crazy golf venue), Cantlay landed victory – and he successfully defended the title at Wilmington in 2022.
When he lost in extra holes at the 2023 St Jude Championship, ahead of his attempt to complete the BMW Championship three-peat, his career looked in a wonderful spot. He was an eight-time PGA Tour winner, he’d landed the Tour Championship in 2021, he was a star for Team USA in the Ryder and Presidents Cup, and he had finally contended in a major championship (heading into the final round at Augusta National that year with an outside sniff of the win).
He was T15 that week two years ago at Olympia Fields, but he was never genuinely in the hunt, and it started a trend. In his previous 87 starts, he had finished tied fourth or better 28 times, and seven of them were wins. But his last 37 starts, since and including this event two years ago, have reaped just four top four finishes, and none of them wins.
It’s a significant drop-off in quality, so what has changed? Well, from that first season in 2017 through 2023, Cantlay was 7-for-7 at ranking top 25 for Strokes Gained Off the Tee. Last year, in contrast, he ranked 61st and this year he is 30th.
In the same period, he was 6-for-7 at ranking top 25 for SG Approach. He’s on track to repeat that this year (currently 13th), but last year he tumbled to 102nd. Last year was poor; this year has been better, so a repeat of his win is not impossible, but it’s unlikely.
That triumph was an exceptional one. He and Bryson DeChambeau blitzed the course and finished regulation play locked together four shots clear of the field. It then took six extra holes to separate them as they matched one another for strong drives and outrageous putting.
“Outrageous” doesn’t really do justice for his work on the greens that week. He gained 14.58 putts on the field (a PGA Tour record), which works out as 3.6 shots per round. In all, he drained 537 feet of putts. Never a man to get too carried away, he kept explanations simple afterwards. “The putter felt great,” he said.
Who can thrive this week? Scottie Scheffler remains a short price, Rory McIlroy is still seeking his best with the driver, and Xander Schauffele is not the competitor he was 12 months ago. We’ll look elsewhere.
Sepp Straka
In addition to being the stars of the show four years ago, Cantlay and DeChambeau are both past winners at Muirfield Village, and, in recent years, it is a spot the Austrian has enjoyed finishing fifth last year and third in June. Caves Valley is a Tom Fazio design and Straka’s first win on the PGA Tour was at PGA National (another Fazio original). He’s logged 13 top 20s in 21 appearances this year, including two of his last three starts. A winner in January and May, he can win again.
Sam Burns
“The golf course is great,” Burns said after carding a 64 to share the first round at Caves Valley four years ago. “Really cool place. I like the layout. You can see different holes. It’s a big property, and it’s really beautiful looking. It’s been a joy to be here.” He added a third round 65 on his way to eighth, and he can improve on that this week. He’ll struggle to match Cantlay’s putting in 2021, but he did rank first in that category last week, which bodes well.
Kurt Kitayama
A purple patch this summer has rescued Kitayama’s card and with it provided security in the medium term courtesy of a win in the 3M Open at the end of last month. He rode the wave with a top 10 last week, his third in five starts and the spell has been notable for low rounds: 66s at TPC Deere Run and Sedgefield, 65s at Tahoe Mountain and Twin Cities, and a second round 63 last week. He’s yet to catch fire on a Thursday but he has done on Tom Fazio courses in the past. A 64 earned him a solo first round lead at PGA National in 2022; a 66-65 start at Congaree later the same year had him third and then tied first, and even a 69 that had him seventh after 18 holes at Victoria National in 2021.
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