MANCHESTER United have not won at Anfield in their last ten attempts and every metric and instinct tells us that unwanted run will continue this Sunday. Even if we put to one side their chronically vulnerable defence and malfunctioning midfield, not to mention a manager who prioritises system over personnel to the team’s detriment, their away performances must be factored in, this term and last.
Just two points gained from their last eight on the road in the league speaks of a side unwilling – or incapable – of putting in the hard yards when up against it, and minus 70,000 fans demanding those hard yards.
In this context therefore, the Reds’ much needed victory over Sunderland going into the international break has little to no bearing over what may transpire on Merseyside this weekend. Much more pertinent is that United conceded three apiece at Man City and Brentford, and would have shipped in three more at Fulham if not for errant finishing from the hosts.
It is an assessment backed up by their manager who said post-match vs Sunderland: “The frustration is not to see the same team at home and away.” He went on to say that his men must ‘kill’ themselves going into every transition and that he has seen scant evidence of that on their travels.
Anfield may not be the bear-pit it was under Jurgen Klopp, a place that struck fear into every opposition coach from Pep Guardiola down, due to the unrelenting ferocity that awaited them, but it remains an unforgiving arena where half-measures are fully punished. And this is certainly true of the big games, the occasions that have the crowd ramp up proceedings to eleven, and turn every challenge into a war that simply has to be won, and every refereeing decision into a drama.
At this point it is worth highlighting that United have only scored three goals in those ten contests in L4. That’s a goal every five hours.
Under 0.5 goals for the visitors is a shout at 39/20
That’s not to say that Liverpool themselves don’t have issues, serious ones frankly, that can be exploited via the right means and application.
A high-intensity mid-block, with a narrow front three, could reap huge rewards for the visitors, as it did for Crystal Palace recently as Selhurst Park. It is doubtful whether Sesko and co have the discipline and desire to accomplish this in the same excellent manner the Eagles did, but you never know.
Alternatively – or additionally – Ryan Gravenberch’s importance to Arne Slot’s set-up can be minimised if man-marked diligently. But who can be trusted from United’s midfield to perform this onerous task properly? Bruno Fernandes? Casemiro? Ugarte?
As a related aside, the Dutchman’s fitness is one of the biggest considerations going into this clash. Gravenberch’s hamstring ‘discomfort’ is said to be minor, the 23-year-old expected to feature.
Elsewhere, Florian Wirtz’s failure to date to transfer his enormous talent to the Premier League resulted in him being benched last time out at Chelsea, while Mo Salah’s declining impact means Liverpool no longer has a blisteringly brilliant winger compensating for the large swathe of space he leaves behind him, untracked.
Add in two full-backs in Kerkez and Bradley who have been subbed four times combined in the league at half-time or prior, and another in Frimpong who falls between two stools and Liverpool have problems that must be addressed if they are to have any realistic hope of retaining their title.
Three consecutive losses have shone a great big spotlight on each of them.
Naturally, among all this hand-wringing there are plenty of positives too.
Gravenberch has been integral and complete while Alexander Isak will have benefited greatly from two 90 minutes outings for his country this past fortnight. The Swede provided a cute assist at Stamford Bridge and was sharp – if wasteful – against Kosovo on Monday evening.
Dominik Szoboszlai meanwhile has been one of Liverpool’s best performers this season, whether deployed at right-back or in midfield. For the second time in five starts, the Hungarian registered four tackles vs Chelsea, his tenacity crucial.
There is also the not-so-small matter of Liverpool converting 2+ goals in 27 of their 32 home fixtures under Slot. Indeed, they have only failed to score five times in 67 matches under Slot, home or away.
Back Szoboszlai to register 3+ tackles at 37/20
In summary then, the hosts can be anticipated to win out on Sunday, putting their issues off for another day. It won’t be comprehensive, or easy, as we’ve seen in seven and four-goal thrashings in recent seasons, but it could be straightforward if United go direct. And if they’re under the cosh, they will.
A 2-0 home victory at 9/1 appeals for sure.
It is likely too that Mo Salah and Cody Gakpo will have a lot more joy than experienced in recent weeks, against well-structured rearguards, and with that in mind Salah’s remarkable record in this fixture has to be acknowledged.
The Egyptian Prince boasts 22 goal involvements in 17 at the expense of a side he probably wishes he could play against every week.
Back Mo Salah to score at 23/20
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