LEICESTER City sit third in the table. They’re five points clear of Chelsea in fourth, and eight clear of Manchester United and Wolves in fifth and sixth. Liverpool and Manchester City may be distant specks but if that was the only information we knew, everything would look rosy. Brendan Rodgers’s side are on course to qualify for the Champions League for only the second time and that would be a remarkable achievement.
The concern is their form. Leicester have won only three of their last 12 league games. They haven’t scored in their last three. The Champions League qualification that looked all but certain in December is now in a little doubt. Extrapolate out their points per game (and given the downturn in their results that is arguably an over-optimistic spin) and they are on course for 68 points, which usually would see a side finish sixth or seventh – not third. This is an odd Premier League with a long middle; nobody from third down to about 15th is getting as many points as would be expected for a club in their position. But still, that is a striking enough statistic to give pause.
The big question, of course, is what’s gone wrong? Why have Leicester suddenly suffered this downturn? They’ve played Manchester City twice and Liverpool in that last 12 games, as well as Chelsea and Wolves. But then they’ve also played Norwich twice and failed to beat them on either occasion.
Injuries have played a part. Wilfred Ndidi, who is such a key presence at the back of midfield, hasn’t started a league game since the win over Newcastle on January 1 because of knee problems. Taken across all competitions, Leicester win 16 per cent more games when he starts a game than when he doesn’t. Even worse, Nampalys Mendy, who could have deputised, has been out for over a month with his own knee injury.
Leicester have now failed to score in three consecutive Premier League games inside a single campaign for the first time under Brendan Rodgers.
42 shots since they last found the net. pic.twitter.com/DZb4UkZ3rL
— Squawka Football (@Squawka) February 28, 2020
At the same time, Jamie Vardy has suffered a rare goal drought as well as a couple of minor injuries that kept him out of the defeat at Norwich and will cause him to miss Wednesday’s FA Cup fifth-round tie against Birmingham. He hasn’t scored since his strike at the Etihad in December, a run of seven league games, his worst run in three years – although of course that may be as much a symptom of Leicester’s struggles as a cause.
Or perhaps the downturn is simply a regression to the mean. After all, Understat’s xG chart still suggests no side is so overperforming its expected goals scored as Leicester, while only Crystal Palace, Newcastle and Sheffield United are overperforming expected goals conceded to a greater extent. Expected points – a much more volatile and less reliable gauge than goals – would have them on 45 and down in sixth.
There has been an element of misfortune as well. Leicester could feel they had the better of the game in losing to Burnley, and might easily have got more from the draw with Chelsea. Against City, Leicester hit the post and had two decent penalty shouts turned down. The problem, as Rodgers has acknowledged, is that whatever the root cause of a downturn, it can become self-perpetuating. “With the consistency of the results, it could plummet you into a lack of confidence, but we’ve always tried to have an environment that picks players up from that, because these players give everything,” he said. “Some of the games we just haven’t been good enough, in other games we haven’t played well enough, and in other games we just haven’t had the luck we needed, but for this team, it’s never been a lack of effort.”
Vardy and Ndidi should both be back for the weekend league game against an Aston Villa side that has now lost four in a row in all competitions – since beating Leicester in the League Cup semi-final. They don’t play another side currently in the top eight until May. There’s every reason to believe they’ll consolidate their position in the top four.
Their strongest card, though, is perhaps the form of everybody else. Although United and Wolves are starting to put runs together, Leicester’s lead over them is substantial, and the fundamental inconsistency of just about everybody this season makes points on the board more valuable than ever.
Fitness and fixtures suggest an upturn is coming, but the truth is that Leicester may not really need it.
