Jonathan Cooper: Nathan Jones could need a miracle to keep the Saints alive

FIRST impressions are important, in life and in football. Some leave a more lasting impression than others. Ron Atkinson returned to football management in 1999 at relegation threatened Nottingham Forest and walked to the wrong dugout in his first game (at the City Ground no less), only realising when he took a second look at Arsenal substitute Fabián Caballero – not the most recognisable of Arsenal players of any era – that he was in the wrong one. Stood in the home dugout, he saw Forest lose 1-0 to Arsenal, then 8-1 in their next home game against Man Utd (which he described as a “nine-goal thriller” to further endear him to the Forest fans), with Forest ending the season bottom. Forest did manage to win their final three games, becoming the first team since Everton in 1929-30 to finish bottom of the top-flight but end on three wins. Bad first impression, but must’ve left a not bad impression, then.

A REMINDER:

Ron Atkinson famously gets into the wrong dugout in his first game in charge of Nottingham Forest in 1999.

Luckily for him, Nelson Vivas was on hand to act as a makeshift ladder to hoist him out. 😂 pic.twitter.com/iz5oNcBcLx

— Football Remind (@FootballRemind) January 29, 2018

Nathan Jones has had a tough start as Southampton manager, overseeing a run of four consecutive Premier League defeats to become only the 12^th manager in Premier League history to lose his first four games and first since Paul Heckingbottom in 2021. He will hope to be given enough time to turn it around – after all, this is a club who have suffered 50% of the 9-0 defeats in Premier League history under Jones’ predecessor Ralph Hasenhüttl and still afforded him 118 league games after the first one (0-9 vs Leicester) and 69 after the second one (0-9 vs Man Utd) when others might not have been quite as generous (see: Bournemouth with the now UEFA Champions League manager Scott Parker).

Can Jones claw his way back from this run of defeats? Well, the evidence suggests otherwise. 13 (not a great number to start with if looking for positive omens) previous managers have lost their first four matches in a spell in charge of a Premier League team. Eight were relegated with that team, one was sacked after the fourth defeat, one sacked and replaced by his predecessor (keep your ears open, Ralph), one sacked by Southampton and replaced by Mauricio Pochettino, one sacked six months after winning promotion, while the other got the England job, which is perhaps not too high on the priority list of a proud Welshman like Jones.

Managers to lose first 4 PL games in charge at spell at a club

Jones took over at almost exactly the halfway stage of the season, Southampton’s 18^th game and last before the World Cup break, an admittedly tough away game at Liverpool. Losing your first four Premier League games in charge is never a great idea but it’s an even worse idea doing it during a season as opposed to at the start, as the six men who’ve done so with a club can attest to, as all six were given until the end of the season and oversaw relegation on every occasion.

Gary Megson wasn’t given much chance at Norwich in 1994-95, taking over for the final five games after John Deehan – who he’d been assistant manager to – resigned. Taking over with the Canaries on a run of one win in 15, Megson turned that into one win in 20, as the Canaries went down, not to return until 2004.

Mick McCarthy took over a Sunderland team in 2002-03 who had won two points in their previous 11 games. McCarthy had nine games of the season to get one win and better that tally and he managed precisely zero, losing all nine as they were relegated with a then all-time low 19 points, although he kept his job to win promotion and then oversee another 22 defeats in 28 games in 2005-06, helping them break that 19-point nadir with just 15 points.

Eric Black – previously seen as caretaker of Birmingham in 2007 and Sunderland in 2011 – was given the last seven games of Aston Villa’s shambolic 2015-16 season to try and restore some pride, adding just one point to their tally as they finished bottom with 16 points.

Jan Siewert became Huddersfield Town boss in January 2019 with the Terriers bottom on 11 points and before taking charge was mistaken in the crowd for a man called Martin from nearby Wakefield, such was his lack of profile. It didn’t get much better from there as he managed to cobble together just five points in 15 games, the lowest points per game of any manager in Premier League history with 15 or more games (0.33) as they finished 20^th.

Scott Parker (him again) is the most recent manager to lose his first five games, with Fulham in 2019, although he kept his job after relegation and returned to the Premier League with the Cottagers in 2020-21, when they were relegated again.

And finally, Paul Heckingbottom was given the task of replacing club legend Chris Wilder as caretaker at Sheffield United at the end of the 2020-21 season, lost his first game 5-0 to Leicester (the heaviest defeat in a manager’s first top-flight game since 2010) and was replaced in the summer after relegation. He did, however, take over permanently later that year and currently has the Blades second in the Championship.

Nathan Jones will have to buck some trends to keep Southampton in the Premier League; on top of everything else, each of the last five teams bottom of the Premier League on New Year’s Day have been relegated to the Championship. The last time Jones left Luton was to manage Stoke in 2019, winning just 15% of his league games before returning to Bedfordshire where his win percentage is 31% higher. Perhaps if it doesn’t work out on the south coast, Jones can eventually return to Luton. As we’ve seen this month with Darren Ferguson returning for a fourth spell at Peterborough, some managers just fit certain clubs.