THE rear cover of Steve Bruce’s third novel, Defender!, describes the protagonist of the story like this: “Although an excellent player, Steve’s South American midfield defender is temperamental, both on and off the field.”
Midfield Defender: a typo? Or a haunting insight into how Bruce wants the ancient sport to be played? The evidence of Newcastle’s 2019-20 season would suggest the latter, with United’s backline having already scored 12 times, including each of the club’s last three goals (all of which have come in second half injury time).
Only 17 teams in the history of the Premier League have ever seen their defenders score more in a single campaign, and Newcastle still have 14 games remaining. Are we… could we… be in the era of the midfield defender?
Steve Bruce has seen off both a Defender! [Pochettino] and a Striker! [Solskjaer] this season. Superb brand work. pic.twitter.com/fbEjSsEy1I
— Duncan Alexander (@oilysailor) October 6, 2019
Let’s start by acknowledging that it’s not unusual for a particular defender to have a career built around troubling goalkeepers. The Premier League’s all-time top scorer in this regard is John Terry with 41, a man who registered at least one goal in every single season between 2000-01 and 2016-17, with his personal best being six in 2011-12.
Then you get the defenders who have one or two seasons where they simply cannot stop scoring, perhaps a club’s designated penalty taker or just a man who roams free upfield. Julian Dicks, the last player to score for Liverpool in front of the terraced Kop, is the only defender to reach double figures in the Premier League era, scoring 10 for West Ham in 1995-96, but go back before 1992 and what do we find?
Only the midfield defender himself **Steve Bruce**, scoring 19 goals in all competitions for Manchester United in 1990-91. A man who was a goalscoring defender, a man who created the narrative structure of the midfield defender and a man who is currently keeping Newcastle United in mid-table through torrents of goals from his defenders.
But it’s one thing creating fiction. The Premier League only deals in cold, hard facts and if your team is regularly getting bailed out by its backline then something is almost certainly awry. The underlying numbers paint a situation so alarming that Newcastle’s current existence, swanning around in mid-table, could soon be under threat.
As the graphic below shows, a simple subtraction of Expected Goals conceded from a team’s Expected Goals figure puts Newcastle on a figure of minus 24, five worse than any other team in the division this season. Above them are Aston Villa and Norwich, who are partly and utterly in the relegation battle respectively, while London’s “we’re not playing well but we may actually be worse than that” pairing of Crystal Palace and West Ham round out the top five.
There’s been a constant hum of dismay surrounding Bruce’s tenure at St James’ Park, partly because he replaced a manager, Rafa Benitez, whose work at the club was deeply admired by the club’s supporters. Bruce, it’s fair to say, probably edges Benitez when it comes to media supporters, few of whom have been slow to point out that Newcastle are six points up after 24 games compared to last season.
Correct, but it’s also true that Benitez was not riding his luck in the same way in the same way the current manager seems to be. Remember that -24 xG difference that Newcastle are wrestling with? Well, they ended 2018-19 on minus 15, while after 24 games they were on minus 14, meaning that Benitez essentially maintained his team’s attacking and defending at an almost neutral rate in the run-in, losing only five times, and never by more than two goals. That is quite literally football management.
Back to 2020 and Newcastle probably only need three or four more wins to stay up but that seems for the best. Normally if a team has defensive issues it means they’re letting in goals, but United have only conceded nine more than reigning champions Manchester City. In this singular context it’s the reliance on their backline scoring at the other end of the pitch that is the issue, and the very history of the Premier League suggests those defenders can probably only offer four or five more goals at most.
The club’s probably survival will be a triumph of the very concept of the midfield defender, and rightly so, but like all mad constructs, it is liable to fail in the long-run. Steve Bruce dreamt of scoring goals for fun, and he did so, but he is the midfielder defender manager. There can only be one.
