IN Christoph Biermann’s excellent “Football Hackers” book, there’s a deep dive into the numbers behind Borussia Dortmund’s poor season in 2014/15, when they finished seventh after flirting with relegation at Christmas. The evidence points to Jürgen Klopp’s team having simply been incredibly unlucky in the first half of the season, but it was telling that Peter Krawietz, the former BVB assistant coach who has accompanied his boss to Anfield, didn’t want to hear about it. The 47-year-instead blamed small tactical deficiencies and problems with applications for the slump.
Coaches, in general, are all too aware of the power of coincidence, which is why they work very hard to eliminate it to the best of their abilities. The better you are, the less bad luck can hurt you, the thinking goes, especially over the course of an entire campaign or two.
In one-off games featuring opposition of equal or superior qualities, however, it’s naturally much harder to keep fate at bay. It’s the equivalent of playing only one hand in a poker game, short-stacked, against an opponent who’s likely to have a better hand. If there’s no help from lady luck, courtesy of a friendly flop, taking down the pot will probably elude your, irrespective of your skills. There is, to paraphrase Johan Cruyff, logic in randomness – which is a useful way of thinking about Jürgen Klopp’s poor record in finals (lost six out of seven). Bad luck was a factor in most of those defeats, but never the only one.
Champions League final 2013 v Bayern Munich (2-1)
Dortmund’s pressing and transition game threatened to overpower Jupp Heynckes’ team but Robert Lewandowski failed to take his chances to tilt the balance of the tie. As the Black and Yellows’ ability to close down Bayern’s superior midfield waned, so did their chances to win against their more experienced rivals. Lenient refereeing from Nicola Rizzoli, who didn’t send off Danté after the Brazilian’s foul on Marco Reus in the box, didn’t help Dortmund’s underdog cause. Bayern were the best and most complete team in Europe that year and eventually ran out deserved winners at Wembley.
DFB Pokal final 2014 v Bayern Munich (2-0 after extra time)
Klopp’s high-energy system was showing signs of going stale in the league, but they were the better team on the night in Berlin. Pep Guardiola’s run-away champions Bayern, ravaged by injury and internal turmoil following their Champions League semi-final loss against Real Madrid, defended deep and barely made it through the 90 minutes. In fact, they shouldn’t have. Mats Hummels scored a perfectly good goal but his header was wrongly adjudged to not have crossed the line. The miscarriage of justice was bad enough to usher in goal-line technology but that was no consolation to Klopp, who saw Bayern score late goals to lift the cup.
DFB Pokal final 2015 v VfL Wolfsburg (3-1)
The worst Dortmund of Klopp’s seven-year reign had squeezed past Bayern in the semis with plenty of luck, on penalties, but against the Lower-Saxons of Kevin De Bruyne, it ran out, as a general lack of energy and precision in defence made the difference.
League Cup final v Man City 2016 (1-1, City won on penalties)
Liverpool fought valiantly to hold a much better City side over 120 minutes before losing on spot-kicks. There really isn’t much more they could have done.
Europa League final v Sevilla 2016 (3-1)
The Reds could have won this one, having taken the lead through Daniel Sturridge. Sevilla, however, came back strong after the break to take advantage of unsure defending. Krawietz has hinted at a lack of belief and mental fortitude in his team, who succumbed to the savvy Europa League experts. Luck hardly came into it.
Champions League final v Real Madrid 2018 (3-1)
Mohamed Salah coming off injured, two calamities from a concussed Loris Karius and a wonder-goal from substitute Gareth Bale: things could not have gone worse for the Merseysiders after a decent start in the Ukrainian capital. A lack of quality from the bench exacerbated Liverpool’s paralysis after going behind. They left Kiev desolate, frustrated that they never had a real opportunity to make their mark.
It’s tempting, from Klopp’s point of view, to believe that he would have won two or three more trophies with some good fortune. But the 51-year-old’s confidence ahead of the meeting with Tottenham on Saturday isn’t based the gambler’s fallacy that the ball will have to land on red after six blacks in a row. In his mind, the odds have shifted in his favour. “I’ve never made it to the final with a better team,” he said this week. His Liverpool are at full-strength, beaming with self-belief and tactically advanced enough to win games without the need to expand all of their energy in an early onslaught. The chance to get lucky, in other words, has never been better.
A £10 bet on Liverpool to win the Champions League returns £15.00
