THE 2023-24 Premier League campaign certainly delivered one thing: goals. It was the highest scoring Premier League season of all-time, with 1,246 goals and a goals-per-game average of 3.28, the highest in a top-flight season since 1964-65 (3.34).
There were a mere eleven goalless draws, which is ten fewer than in any other season (21 in 2019-20). There were more shots on target in 2023-24 than in any other Premier League season Opta has on record since 2003-04, leading to the highest shot conversion in that time (11.9%).
The team with the most shots on target were Man City, who won a record-breaking fourth title in a row. Can they do it again?
Manchester City and a fifth title in a row
Last season, Manchester City became the first team in English top-flight history to lift the title in four consecutive seasons. On December 6 after defeat to Aston Villa, they were fourth and six points behind Arsenal, but they did not lose a single game afterwards, winning 19 of their final 23 games and ending the campaign on a nine-game winning run in which they scored 33 goals.
But the challenge of Arsenal is getting stronger all the time. In the last two seasons, Arsenal have led the Premier League for over 200 days more than City (324 vs 120) and were on top as late as May 13 last season. City have ended seasons incredibly consistently, winning 55 of a possible 60 points across April and May in the last two seasons combined to get them over the line.
Arsenal, however, didn’t stumble much at all from New Year’s Day onwards, winning 16 of 18 matches and scoring more goals than City (54 vs 51) and conceding only nine goals. They also avoided defeat in both games against City last season, the first time they’ve done that in the Guardiola era and ended their run of 12 consecutive defeats against them. The Gunners closed the gap from five points in 2022-23 to two points in 2023-24 – gaining another three points in 2024-25 could see them life their first title since 2004 and end the City domination.
New managers
For the first time since 2015-16, Liverpool will start a season without the incredible Jürgen Klopp, as Arne Slot has joined the Reds from Feyenoord after Klopp stepped down as manager. Slot won the 2022-23 Eredivisie title and ended last season on a 26-match unbeaten run in all competitions – the last manager to beat him was Brendan Rodgers at Celtic in the UEFA Champions League group stage, with Rodgers the last manager other than Klopp to manage Liverpool on the opening day of a Premier League season.
Slot will be aiming to do what no other solo Liverpool manager has achieved in the Premier League – win their first game in charge. Eight have tried but all eight have either drawn (four) or lost (four).
Also new to the Premier League is Brighton’s Fabian Hürzeler, who will make history in becoming the first manager to manage a Premier League game born after the first games were played in August 1992 (the first such player to appear was Lennard Sowah of Portsmouth in April 2010).
It will be interesting just how close Hürzeler’s style is to Roberto De Zerbi’s ultra-possession model – his title-winning FC St. Pauli team of 2023-24 averaged almost a hundred fewer successful passes per game than Brighton last season. Attacking-wise, both sides registered similar numbers – 15 shots per game for Brighton, 16 for St. Pauli – although the German side managed to score more goals in fewer games (62 in 34 games) than Brighton (55 in 38).
An appearance by 38-year-old James Milner will see another Premier League record broken – the biggest gap in age between a player and his manager in a match. Milner was born 7 years and 47 days before Hürzeler, which would be slightly more than the 6 years and 233 days that separated Watford goalkeeper Alec Chamberlain and manager Aidy Boothroyd for his one-minute cameo in May 2007 against Newcastle.
Newly promoted clubs to make an impact?
It was a tough season for all three newly promoted Premier League clubs last season, with all three going back down for the first time 1997-98. Sheffield United, particularly, struggled and conceded a record 104 Premier League goals, winning only three times.
All three promoted clubs this year all spent just the 2023-24 season in the Championship but in differing circumstances – Leicester City and Southampton were relegated from the Premier League in 2022-23 but bounced back immediately, while Ipswich Town had just been promoted from League One and followed that up with 28 wins, a record by a promoted second tier side. They are the first side to come into the Premier League via two consecutive promotions since Southampton in 2012, who remained in the top-flight for 11 seasons afterwards. The Tractor Boys haven’t featured in the Premier League since 2002 and would take staying up as a huge success.
Southampton’s promotion was based on ball possession, with the Saints leading the Championship for successful passes, passing accuracy and average possession in 2023-24. Leicester had a similar style and ranked second in all those categories behind the Saints but have lost manager Enzo Maresca to Chelsea. It will be interesting to see if new manager Steve Cooper implements a similar style – his Nottingham Forest side had the fewest completed passes and lowest passing accuracy in the Premier League during his time there.
What’s the supercomputer predicting?
The supercomputer has given City an 82.2% chance of retaining their title for a fifth consecutive season and rates Arsenal (12.2%) and Liverpool (5.1%) as the only other realistic teams of challenging them.
At the other end, the three promoted teams are all predicted to have tough seasons and ultimately to finish in the bottom-three, with Southampton given a 67% chance of returning straight to the Championship, alongside Ipswich (64.8%) and Leicester (60.4%).
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