HERE we are then, the first European final of the 2019/20 season or 'Two more games, just two more games' as people who hate football are saying about it. Forget them though, this isn't about them. I shouldn't have given them such prominence in this introduction to be honest.
No, this game is about two European powerhouses which is not something you often get to say about a Europa League final. First we have Sevilla – to be fair, you always get to say that about a Europa League final – and Inter who reached their first European season-ender since their Treble-winning campaign in 2010. This game is about Antonio Conte chasing down his first ever European trophy as a manger, and Julen Lopetegui doing the same but with a bigger chip on his shoulder following his sackings at Spain and Real Madrid.
This game is also about record-hunting Romelu Lukaku, redeemed after his Man Utd malaise and eager to get his hands on a major trophy for the first time. It's about Lucas Ocampos and his own redemptive tale after losing in the Europa League final in 2018. In fact, it's about an awful lot of things which, hopefully, I've adequately summarised below. For the final time this season, here are your Europa League betting tips.
Sevilla vs Inter | Friday August 18, 20:00 GMT
Since February 9, Sevilla have played 20 matches, won 11 and drawn nine – the longest unbeaten run in club history. Los Nervionenses have won 25 of their last 26 Europa League knockout ties, and have won six and drawn two of their eight UEFA Cup/ Europa League single game knockout matches on their way to claiming five of the last 14 Europa League titles. Compared to Inter, Sevilla have had a much tougher route to the final having beaten Roma, Wolves, and tournament favourites Man Utd last time out.
In the last nine matches, both sides have identical, strong defensive records – seven clean sheets, just two goals conceded. That's impressive from Julen Lopetegui but you could argue it's par for the course for Antonio Conte, arguably the best defensive coach in the world. Inter's edge then is likely to come from their world class strikers. Both Romelu Lukaku (33 goals) and Lautaro Martinez (21 goals) are enjoying their best ever seasons in front of goal. Both bagged braces as Inter saw off Shakhtar 5-0, a Europa League semi-final record scoreline.
If Lukaku nets against Sevilla, he'll extend his own record of scoring in 10 straight Europa League matches, and he'll equal Ronaldo's blistering 34-goal debut campaign for Inter. If he gets two, he'll earn his second (shared) Europa League Golden Boot. Lukaku has cleaned up as Inter have enjoyed an easy passage to the final, scoring against Getafe, Bayer Leverkusen and Shakhtar, but be warned, he's still not a big-game player. In eight matches against the rest of Serie A's top five, Lukaku has scored just once this season.
Sevilla's Lucas Ocampos is also enjoying his best goal-scoring campaign with 17 goals from the wing. Beyond La Liga's signing of the season however, Sevilla struggle for goals. Munir El Haddadi is the only other player to reach double figures. During Sevilla's club record unbeaten run, they are averaging just 1.5 goals per game, having managed to score more than two just three times. Put that in the context of a defence trained by Conte and organised by Diego Godin, it's tough to envisage Sevilla scoring more than one.
During the same time period, Inter average 2.4 goals per game. If Sevilla's semi-final with Man Utd is anything to go by, they can expect plenty of chances here. Many argued higher quality finishing would have won United that tie – well, that's precisely what Lukaku and Martinez offer here. It'll be tight, with both managers likely to prefer a cautious approach. Ultimately, that will suit Inter. Conte will be happy for his side to sit deep, reduce space in behind, double up defensively, and trust his world class strikeforce to win Inter the trophy.
Match Odds: Sevilla (49/20) Draw (12/5) Inter (23/20)
Tip: Lautaro Martinez to score any time (19/10)
Correct score: Sevilla 1-2 Inter (15/2)
