WHAT criteria do you prioritise when trying to identify a winner of a major tournament?

Form has to be a big consideration, from how a team fared in their qualifying campaign to recent friendlies. Sure it can deceive from time to time, but form will always be the most instructive way of determining what shape a national side is presently in and, crucially, whether they head to Germany this week propelled by momentum.

Spain stand out in this regard. After winning the Nations League 12 months ago they romped through the remainder of their Euro qualifying commitments, blasting seven past Georgia and beating Scotland and Norway to nil.

Earlier this year they played out a thoroughly entertaining 3-3 draw with Brazil and this month flexed their might by obliterating Andorra and Northern Ireland.

Mikel Oyarzabal incidentally bagged four in those brace of thrashings, all from the bench.

Looking ahead, La Roja are widely believed to be in a group of death at the Euros but with Italy under reconstruction and lacking firepower, and Croatia an aging, fading force, perhaps that’s been exaggerated.

Spain are a tempting 4/5 to top Group B

Form of course is a given, and another obvious shout is acknowledging which squads are well-stacked with brilliant talent.

To be clear, this isn’t about highlighting a superstar, nor even a first-choice XI sprinkled with Barca, Bayern and Manchester City regulars. Squad is the operative word here because over the next month any team that goes deep in Euro 2024 will play three group games in nine days, then a further four in relatively quick succession, the latter contests emotionally taxing and on occasion going to extra-time.

Every side will need an Oyarzabal and if we focus on outstanding quality in reserve England come to the fore. Granted, their defensive issues concern but beyond a lack of left-backs and John Stones’ precarious hamstrings and ankles, Gareth Southgate is blessed with an abundance of riches.

Cole Palmer would be most nation’s brightest hope but may not start a single game. Ollie Watkins posted the fifth most goal involvements across Europe’s big five leagues in 2023/24 and might not play a minute.

For all that Harry Kane’s goal-scoring prowess bolsters England’s chances it’s the wealth of options around him that makes the Three Lions nailed-on to go far this summer.

Kane has converted 10 in nine starts post-Qatar for his country and has scored every 155 minutes at major tournaments for the Three Lions. The 2018 World Cup Golden Boot winner is 11/2 to outscore his peers again.

The Bayern hit-man’s impressive track-record at the majors brings us to another factor, that of tournament pedigree.

This can often be an over-looked detail, or if acknowledged spoken about in cliché such as trumpeting the German’s ability to always find a way.

Yet we should not downplay the importance of self-assurance based on past successes when a team reaches the business end of a competition. It is a huge advantage.

Which ordinarily would bring us to France, a nation that has reached three major finals since 2016. But more on Les Bleus very shortly.

Instead, it is indeed Germany who are fancied to navigate a path to the last four and possibly beyond, a route they have undertaken many times in their illustrious history.

Granted, Die Mannschaft have disappointed in World Cups in recent years but three semi-final appearances or better at the Euros in their last four outings speaks volumes. Furthermore, being hosts will only add to their sense of entitlement, a frame of mind that is not ideal but is still far preferable to imposter syndrome.

With Julian Nagelsmann now at the helm, and with his early experiments – Havertz at left-back anyone? – seemingly sated, Germany are a dangerous proposition this coming month, particularly with an enthralling forward line consisting of Jamal Musiala, Florian Wirtz and Kai Havertz excelling in a more familiar false-nine role. Add the goals of Niclas Fullkrug – the Dortmund forward has scored four in seven on the international stage – and the direct pace of Leroy Sane and the traditional pantomime villain of major tournaments will be a consistent threat going forward.

And from these in-form talents it is Wirtz who especially intrigues, a wunderkind now ready to embrace superstardom. With 13 league assists last term and a sensational hat-trick in April, the 21-year-old often ran the show for Bayer Leverkusen as they attained their first ever Bundesliga title. He’s such a clever player.

Back Wirtz to be the UEFA Young Player of the Tournament at 6/1. Additionally, Germany are a decent shout at 11/10 to reach the semi-finals.

Lastly, we come to arguably the most important criteria of them all, that of our gut instincts.

Varying from individual to individual this nagging suspicion can come in the form of a whisper or a siren and neither should ever be ignored, forged as they are from a lifetime’s obsession.

You may fancy a post-Golden Generation Belgium to surpass the achievements of Hazard and company. Or you can almost see Toni Kroos signing off from top level football in style as he orchestrates a German success. Subsequently he wins the Player of the Tournament merit in part due to sentiment.

On these pages, the gut says that France will disappoint.

Perhaps it’s because they are increasingly reliant on Kylian Mbappe, an explosive and magical player for sure but it always unnerves when a team becomes dependent on one player. Real Madrid’s new mega-signing scored exactly a third of their goals in qualifying.

Or maybe it’s because Didier Deschamps’ ultra-conservative ways feel so out-of-step with a tournament that has the potential to be the most attacking, adventurous and entertaining for a good while.

After all, across the qualifying campaign 2.9 goals-per-90 were scored in games involving every participant this summer.

Even if they finish runner-up in Group D, Les Bleus have a fairly comfortable route to the last eight. From there though sirens go off. Back France to exit at the quarter-final stage at 3/1

So there we have it. Form, a strong squad, tournament pedigree and gut instinct, with an example for each.

But is there a team that ticks every box from above? The complete package you might say. There is, and better yet, they are a 15/2 shot.

After flopping at the World Cup, Portugal have been revived under Roberto Martinez, a manager who has additionally resurrected his reputation.

The Selecao won all ten of their qualifying fixtures, nine of them to nil and several of them in convincing fashion. They are blessed with an outstanding, deep and balanced squad. They have exciting youth and the x-factor of Ronaldo. They are tactically flexible and by winning the Euros in 2016 possess a roadmap to lifting the trophy.

Moreover, in Leao, Jota, Joao Felix and CR7 they have several goal-sources and let’s not forget Bruno Fernandes who bagged six in qualifying.

Don’t whisper it, say it loud. It’s Portugal for Euro 2024.

Back the Selecao to win Euro 2024 at 15/2