ENGLAND's reaching of a second consecutive semi-final of a major tournament has played havoc with our senses.
Optimism that was so recently tentative, grows stronger by the hour as kick-off looms. A belief that the Three Lions can finally do it this time is similarly intensifying, fueled by patriotism and anticipation but mostly and simply because we really, really want it to happen. If we will it so, then who knows?
Painful memories of penalty shoot-outs and tepid defeats to Scandinavians meanwhile have been metaphorically banished to the back of a store cupboard.
As for the threat level posed by Denmark, that has been reconfigured of late, packaged to suit our pre-match narrative. They are tricky for sure, but beatable.
All of this of course is done to maintain our sanity; to ensure that when England’s biggest game since their last biggest game gets underway, we are hyped up and ready, and not rocking in a corner somewhere mumbling about Andreas Moller and Iceland. That song from The Italian Job called it right. When it comes to supporting England and when it matters a great deal, we really are a self-preservation society.
So where do the truths and likelihoods lie amidst this miasma of denial, hope, shredded nerves and yearning? Certainly, we can say that Gareth Southgate’s side are in excellent shape going into their date with destiny having not conceded now for 11 hours. At the back they are resilient and superbly organized, underpinned by the protection afforded by Declan Rice and Kalvin Phillips and whether four at the back is deployed or three, it is a defence that has long been structurally sound.
Furthermore, the qualities that have made it so extends throughout the team because this is an England that now defines itself on composure and control.
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Gareth Southgate deserves an awful lot of credit for recognizing that one of England’s biggest strengths down the years has also regularly been its undoing and that is getting caught up in the moment and allowing passion behind the wheel. He warrants even greater praise for having the guts to change this.
SOUTHGATE CAM
Heading & kicking ball #Euro2020 | #ITVFootball | #ThreeLions pic.twitter.com/N7FpnEBQxf
— ITV Football (@itvfootball) July 4, 2021
Because in many ways England’s tournament travails in our lifetime can be compared to that of an argument and who typically wins from the person who beats their chest, shouts at the top of their lungs, and tries to settle the matter with an extravagant and unwieldy point. Or the other individual who remains calm, stands their ground, and at a level volume repeats carefully rehearsed killer lines.
No longer do we have a national side propelled by insecure want and it’s genuinely hard to recall an England side of the past so sure of who they are and where they’re going; that wins or loses on its own terms.
They last lost an argument to Belgium 12 games ago and this measured and accomplished approach bodes extremely well coming up against an emotionally charged Denmark at Wembley on Wednesday evening, still riding a wave of adrenaline from enduring the awful Christian Eriksen drama. In a game of such magnitude might we see Denmark be the England of old: ramped up to ten, valiant but ultimately picked off. Might England be the archetypal Germans in this scenario; cool, collected and clinical? It’s a distinct possibility.
As encouraging, Southgate’s side is now adding goals to its arsenal, as evidenced against Ukraine, and better yet they are being scored once again by Harry Kane and Raheem Sterling.
Post-World Cup in 2018 up until last year’s late win in Iceland, this formidable duo were routinely relied upon to grab the headlines, bagging 46.9% of England’s 49 goals in this period. A sustained loss of form and confidence from each however on the international scene led to 15 different players firing home the subsequent 24 goals but the norm has been returned to now. At the Euros, Kane and Sterling have notched six of England’s eight.
Highest active scorers at #EURO2020
Kasper Dolberg: 3
Harry Kane: 3
Raheem Sterling: 3Will any of them catch Ronaldo and Schick? pic.twitter.com/Q1EMQRnMMV
— Goal (@goal) July 3, 2021
It could be reasoned that there’s an inherent downside to relying so much on a finite source of firepower but that’s not the case with how England are set up. A solid base needs constancy up front, a focal point and crucially the Three Lions have it again.
Determining when either forward gets off the mark leads to the prospect of an early opener.
Don’t discount either, the possibility of another thumping header courtesy of a centre-back or Kane guiding one home from his noggin. England have scored five headers so far in the tournament and no other team comes close to that. It’s taken Denmark 16 games to match that tally.
If all of the above has hopefully assuaged some nerves now alas comes the accompanying bitter pill; an acknowledgement of Denmark’s true standing.
Because to whatever extent an entire nation is currently kidding itself that Kasper Hjulmand’s team is tricky, but beatable, in reality, they are far better than that.
There are the two Nations League contests in 2020 to consider, with the Danes gaining four points. In their 1-0 victory at Wembley, Rice and Phillips were used as a double pivot to little avail though a Harry Maguire dismissal might well have ultimately corrupted the result.
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There are 24 clean sheets in their last 40 games to factor in too, highlighting that it’s not only England who go into this bolstered by an established and synchronized rearguard.
Yet it is up front where Denmark have truly impressed, especially considering the harrowing circumstances that initially threatened to derail their tournament. Only Spain boast more goals, and this is a tremendous prolificacy given their lack of a stand-out striker. They have put together the third most attacks – 76 more than England – along with the second most shots on target, and from an aesthetic perspective no team is responsible for more individual dribbles. Crucially, they also top the balls recovered chart, illustrating the unsurprising detail that this is a hard-working side fighting for a common cause.
England have accrued a quite outstanding 16 clean sheets in their last 20. Don’t expect that record to improve here.
