BETTING on the outcome of football matches shouldn’t have absolutes attached. Otherwise, what’s the point? Where is the fun in that? Absolutes come after, in hindsight. This team won. That team lost.
Yet still, England’s hosting of San Marino this Thursday evening at Wembley Stadium is one of those very rare beasts indeed: a sporting contest that can be determined for definite beforehand. Because England will win for sure. That is absolute and nailed on. Just so long as they turn up as a collection of players in good, bad, or indifferent form the Three Lions will get their World Cup 2022 qualifying campaign off to a successful start.
The question then is by how many goals. San Marino no longer succumb to cricket scores as the norm but there are still several players in the current squad who were involved when these teams last met, a 6-0 decimation on home soil. And though they may avoid outright humiliations these days, arguably their best player is presently loaned out to Cesena in Italy’s Serie C and this remains a side compiled from a population of just shy of 34,000 who would struggle against the worst of English football’s lower league fare.
Squad announced ✅
The #ThreeLions are all set for #WCQ pic.twitter.com/5KO6DyAS3N
— England (@England) March 18, 2021
So, all things considered, perhaps a routine and comfortable 5-0 is the way to go and if you believe that to be a touch optimistic consider this: in seven of the last eight times England have faced a team ranked lower than 40th they have triumphed by four-plus goals. San Marino are ranked 210th.
The 7/1 available for a 5-0 home win stands out as the best value correct score bet
If predicting a comprehensive victory is relatively straightforward what is less clear is who will convert the chances.
For an extended period following the World Cup in 2018 up until last year’s late win in Iceland, Gareth Southgate typically relied on either Harry Kane or Raheem Sterling to grab the headlines with the duo scoring 46.9% of England’s 49 goals during this time. But Kane hasn’t scored now in six appearances while Sterling’s last international goal came courtesy of that last minute penalty in Reykjavik. More so, it is telling that only four of England’s last ten goals have been scored by one of their front three.
This all lends itself to one of only two likely conclusions, the first being that Southgate has uncovered new ways of breaking down stubborn opponents, in a manner that evokes Manchester City’s sharing around of goals to compensate for Sergio Aguero’s lay-off. Or that England’s forwards are no longer getting decent service.
Sadly, it is the latter of these that seems the most feasible with the schoolmasterly gaffer coming in for a fair bit of stick last November when his team lost apathetically to Belgium. Where was the creativity, the media wondered; a damning question in an era that’s seen England blessed with an abundance of exciting attacking midfielders in the form of Phil Foden, Jack Grealish, James Maddison and Mason Mount. To lose to the Red Devils is fine, if disappointing. To be devoid of ideas when furnished with a vintage crop of creative talents is unacceptable.
Yet perhaps any criticism of Southgate should be put on hold, for all the ongoing concerns about his propensity to shoehorn players into systems they’re unsuited to along with an evident distrust of individuality.
The last occasion England played was 127 days ago and much has happened since then, an evolvement of circumstances that is reflected in the eight changes from this squad to November’s selections. This is a new dawn, of sorts. A fresh page at the very least.
Ollie Watkins making the step up to @England congratulations OW! pic.twitter.com/ZJOAxg2eI1
— TwoTouchAgency (@TwoTouchAgency) March 23, 2021
Ollie Watkins and Jude Bellingham are the surprise call-ups with the teenage Borussia Dortmund prodigy surely brought in to soak up the experience. As for the Aston Villa hit-man he is 33/10 to make his debut memorable by scoring the game’s final goal and should he feature as a sub this is a sensible shout.
Most encouraging of all there is the return of John Stones who has transformed into the defender he once promised to be and a partnership with Harry Maguire bodes well for a back-line that is already in pretty good shape. Despite losing a quarter of their last 12 fixtures England only conceded five times in that period.
Lastly, there is the reintroduction of Jesse Lingard, a comeback story we can all get behind after a couple of months impressing on loan at West Ham. But what must the omitted Maddison be thinking after being brilliant all season long?
What a Goal Jesse
How is Moyes getting Lingard playing like this week in week out and Ole couldn’t?? ♂️ #Lingard #MUFC pic.twitter.com/7VkcWEyvYl
— Amit Mavar (@amit_mavar) March 21, 2021
What England have across the next ten days is a golden opportunity to blow some cobwebs away, address their creative issues and restore some feel-good vibes that noticeably began to ebb in 2020.
On Thursday, San Marino will be brushed aside and then comes Albania at the weekend who will put up a surprising amount of resistance – they recently got promoted to League B of the Nations League and last tasted defeat five games and six months ago – but are still, well, Albania.
Finally, next week brings Poland who undoubtedly have quality, not least from one of Europe’s most lethal marksman Robert Lewandowski who has notched 63 in 116 for his country. But the Poles have too many key figures the wrong side of thirty. They are a team in transition, looking to the future.
Whereas for England what matters is the here and now. Can Southgate oversee three wins, putting nine points on the board in Group I and getting his tenure firmly back on track? There is nothing absolute about that.
For all three games factor in that England have scored 40% of their last 40 goals inside the opening 20 minutes or final ten minutes.
