Back to the Future

In a condensed season, the interruption of an international break hits even harder than usual. Two weeks without the blessed hit of Premier League action is hard to take, but we’ve made it through and on Saturday the division strolls back with delectable fixtures like Leicester versus Manchester City and Arsenal versus Liverpool. Three teams who have been champions of England in the last seven years, and Arsenal. This is traditionally the time of the season when people who claim that football is a “marathon not a sprint” nod wisely as someone like Steve Bruce (the player) or Federico Macheda make a big impact for Manchester United.

20. Steve Bruce's two goals vs Sheffield Wednesday in April 1993 are closer to the first moon landing than they are to now …….⚽️⚽️………….. pic.twitter.com/lirDO02Rms

— Duncan Alexander (@oilysailor) December 8, 2017

This season, though, the pandemic season, is probably a marathon *and* a series of sprints all mashed together. We’ve seen teams and players come into form, go out of form and, some of them at least, come back again. Ask yourself this though: who’s been consistent since September? Harry Kane maybe. Bruno Fernandes perhaps. For most other attacking players it’s been a season of two halves, or three. Many of them, like the garden rake industry, had a good autumn but have not done much since. And with only a matter of weeks left in the season, teams could really do with those players stepping their efforts back up. But who are these spiralling men whose form has dipped and how can we measure it? Using the not-universally admired goals+assists per 90 rate, and splitting the season into before Christmas Day and after Christmas Day, we can get a numerical value which should give us a working guide as to which forwards have let their form slip away. And here, in reverse order, are the biggest fallers.

5. Wilfried Zaha (Crystal Palace) DOWN 0.51 per 90

If time since the coronavirus hit has seemed aimless and amorphous then think how if feels if you also support Crystal Palace. A season in which one of their only memorable games was a 7-0 home defeat is also one where the club is essentially just waiting for the pivotal summer of 2021, when the contract of their manager, Roy Hodgson, and much of the current squad expires. The one source of hope and real-time joy at the club, as always, is Wilfried Zaha but after a strong start to the season, even the prince of the A23 has succumbed to the ennui. Zaha had seven goals and two assists at Christmas, giving him an impressive 0.76 goal involvements per 90, but this has fallen to 0.25 since. Palace’s vague drift to a mid-table finish could be enlivened if Zaha wakes up in April and May.

But he may not.

4. Son Heung-Min (Tottenham) DOWN 0.61 per 90

Earlier in the season the combination play between Son and Harry Kane briefly led Tottenham to the top of the Premier League. It was hard to decide who was the more effective of the two men as they set their hearts on shattering the Premier League record for goal combinations in a single campaign (finally achieving this last month). On December 25, Son had 11 goals and four assists at a rate of 1.15 G+A/90. Anything above 1.00 is considered elite, so the Korean’s decline to a still-respectable 0.53 since Christmas looks dramatic but is really just a player returning to a more realistic level. Kane has also declined, from 1.36 to 0.89 but both men will have the memories of an autumn where they literally achieved telepathy.

https://twitter.com/OptaJoe/status/1368669173757444099

3. Danny Ings (Southampton) DOWN 0.68 per 90

D:Ream featuring the science lad: Ings Can Only Get Better

Me: Not this season. In fact, after having six goals and two assists at Christmas the England striker has added only two more goals since in a real downturn for him.

D:Ream: Haven’t injuries restricted him though? We know about science and that includes sport science.

Me: He’s certainly been affected by them, but he’s still played more than 800 minutes since December 25.

D:Ream: Fair enough, this seems scientifically sound.

2. Jamie Vardy (Leicester City) DOWN 0.85 per 90

Not even D:Ream can accurately predict the moment the sun will die and engulf our planet, and figuring out when Jamie Vardy’s final descent from an elite level is similarly tricky. We’ve seen Vardy have slow spells before, only to come careening back with a load more goals. But maybe this season is the one. At Christmas Vardy had 11 goals and four assists, but of those 11 strikes, six of them were from the spot. Concerning? Post-Christmas Vardy has added one goal and three assists, two of which came in his most recent appearance. The magnificent form of March’s Premier League player of the month, Kelechi Iheanacho, has picked up the slack but you do wonder whether age is finally starting to catch up with him.

1. Mohamed Salah (Liverpool) DOWN 1.05 per 90

The defensive stance when talking about Mohamed Salah in 2020-21 is to state “actually he is still having a good season you know, he’s the joint top scorer in the English Premier League…” which is yes, sort of true. He is having a good season but as we’ve discussed here, judging this campaign as a whole doesn’t really work. Salah had a superb autumn and on December 25 he surveyed the division serenely with a total of 13 goals and three assists, master of all he saw. That worked out as 1.33 goal involvements per 90 and fresh off a 7-0 win at Selhurst Park all seemed well. Since then, Salah is contributing 0.28 per 90 and is the only person to decline by more than one goal involvement per 90 since Christmas. In the second half of the season Salah has as many goals as Lewis Dunk. Mohamed Salah needs to have scored more goals than Lewis Dunk. If he does, Liverpool may well make a late charge for the top four. Stranger things have happened.

Oh, if you’re wondering who the opposite to all these men are, aka the second half improvement squad, then the top five, in reverse order are: Jay Rodriguez, Marc Albrighton, James Maddison, Alex Lacazette and, of course, Ilkay Gundogan. Well done them.