THE mostly exciting set of games in Group G & H yesterday brought us to an emotional mark in the 2022 World Cup – the halfway point. That’s right, 32 games have been played and 32 remain, including – hopefully – some viscerally memorable moments because, to be honest, this World Cup is yet to serve up a surfeit of action. This is the seventh and final World Cup in its current 32 team format, so let’s take the chance to see how this group stage is shaping up against the previous six brackets, dating back to France 1998.
Goals
Ah goals, the rare lifeblood of our low scoring sport. So far, the 2022 World Cup is averaging 2.53 goals per game, which of the seven 32-team editions places it firmly in mid-table. We ae some way from the sultry highs of 2.83 in the Brazil 2014 group stage or even the 2.71 enjoyed in the first round at Japan/Korea 2002 but at the same time it seems incredibly unlikely that 2022 will sink so low as the frankly dire 2.10 seen in the opening stage of the 2010 World Cup.
CONCLUSION: There have been more goals than you think there have..
Shots
So, if there has been a reasonable amount of goals at the 2022 World Cup then why does it feel a little bit like we’ve been short-changed? Could it be due to a lack of goalmouth action? So far at Qatar 2022 games are averaging 21.6 shots and 7.0 shots on target. Both of those figures are World Cup lows in the current format and it’s easy to recall games where teams simply haven’t been willing or able to generate much attacking threat. The Netherlands, for instance, had just two shots in their game with Ecuador, the lowest figure ever recorded by a European team in a World Cup match. Then there was the much anticipated Argentina vs Mexico game on Saturday, which produced a total of only nine shots in the entire game. Ok, Germany vs Japan served up a healthy 38 – as well as plenty of narrative – but that’s the exception rather than the rule so far.
CONCLUSION: A slow burn so far but maybe the jeopardy of MD3 will spark a change?e
Long-range goals/Direct Free-kicks
One of the reasons we are seeing fewer shots overall is that a decade into the expected goals era teams are much more reluctant to shoot from long-range. World Cups of yesteryear ae littered with physics-defying banana shots that please casual fans and nostalgia-merchants but experts now know it is a fool’s paradise. So far at the 2022 World Cup there have been only six long range goals, well short of the group stage record of 21 back in 2006 while no-one has scored from a direct free-kick yet, least of all Cristiano Ronaldo.
CONCLUSION: There’s only one way to beat them, get in the box
now 53 direct free-kicks for C Ronaldo at World Cups/Euros [one goal]
— Duncan Alexander (@oilysailor) November 28, 2022
Passing
A corollary of not shooting from range is that passing accuracy continues to rise. This metric follows a nice chronological line, with the lowest completion rates dating back to 1998 and 2002 and the highest being 82.8% in 2022. Look, your uncle may not like it but keeping the ball and working the space – even if that involves a goalkeeper taking a short goal kick – is the best way to create consistent quality in modern football. The team that wins the 2022 World Cup will be a passing side.
CONCLUSION: Get the ball, pass the ball.
Goalless Draws
One thing that no-one from any era wants to see is a lot of 0-0 draws, so it’s upsetting to report that the 2022 World Cup has seen 10 already in the group stage, only two short of the first round record of 12, set back in 2010. Once again, you’d hope that the baked-in jeopardy of the final set of group games will see 2022 fall short of that mark but I wouldn’t be so sure. The placement of this World Cup midway through a normal season has reduced preparation time for most sides and with international football being a less cohesive version of elite club football anyway, the chance of a goalless draw is always higher than it would be in, say, the Champions League.
CONCLUSION: Oh heck, oh lor, expect another goalless draw.
Penalties
Here’s a strange one: ask anyone on the street (seriously, try it) about penalties at this World Cup and they’ll roar at you “there’s been hundreds!”. In reality, 32 games into this World Cup there have been 11, which, true, is more than there were in the entire group stage in 2014 (the final pre-VAR World Cup) but still below 15 in the 48 group games in 2002 and the monstrous, legendary total of 24 in the 2018 World Cup (aka Project Grapple). So while Portugal may have got a couple of fortunate spot-kick calls so far, we are absolutely not seeing the rate of penalties we witnessed four years ago.
CONCLUSION: 14 penalties in the final set of group games to set a new group stage record? No chance!
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