Back To School
After getting through the September international break we have now progressed through the October version. Just one more to go before we can settle in for a cold winter of red-hot Premier League action. If the first pause is invariably frustrating because it feels like the new league campaign has only just begun, then the second is a bit better because seven games in, enough stuff has happened to get a glimpse at what this season might have in store. Brighton, good. Wolves, promising. Man Utd, same as it ever was. Burnley, doomed?
But while each Premier League season is unique, we can still look at previous campaigns to see if there are any trends from this very specific point of the campaign we can learn from. And guess what, there are.
Don’t Be Due To Play Manchester City Away
In news that will be highly concerning to Sean Dyche, Manchester City have a phenomenal record in this slot, even stretching back to before the Sheikh Mansour era. In 2003 City smashed Bolton 6-2 and in 2017 they humbled Stoke 7-2. Given they have won their last four home games against Dyche’s Burnley by five goals to nil, the prospects of the Clarets getting anything from east Manchester this weekend seem highly unlikely if not impossible.
Tough Times For Arsenal
September is an Arsenal month; the club have the highest points per game of any Premier League side in the ninth month of the year. October, though, is a much tougher prospect especially recently, and especially after the international break. The Gunners have lost three of their last four matches in this slot. Ok, last season was away to Manchester City, which is about as hard as it gets, but the previous two defeats were to Sheffield United in 2019 and Watford in 2017. Those games were all away from home, though, and this weekend Arsenal are at home to Palace, so maybe everything is going to be just fine.
Crisis At The Palace
Another reason why Arsenal might just be ok in this set of games is that Crystal Palace absolutely hate this slot in the calendar, taking just six points from 12 games, including eight defeats. Those 12 games have seen the Eagles score just six goals in total, although they did get a point in a 0-0 vs Arsenal in 1997, part of Andy Roberts’ incredible achievement of playing the Gunners four times in the same Premier League season. Lining up for Arsenal that day was Patrick Vieira; oh how the wheel turns.
Just remembered Andy Roberts playing four PL games vs Arsenal in one season (97-98). God bless the old-style transfer window.
— Duncan Alexander (@oilysailor) February 9, 2016
Liverpool Will Draw
Liverpool love a gentle reintroduction to league football after the October international break. They haven’t lost in this slot since a painful one to Everton in 2010, but they’ve only won one of six in the Jurgen Klopp era, the other five games all ending as draws. In fact, Klopp’s first game in charge of the club came in this section of the season in 2015, a 0-0 draw at White Hart Lane, the day everyone learnt the word ‘Gegenpressing’. 12 months later it was a 0-0 at home to Manchester United and then exactly the same in 2017. They played United again in 2019, drawing 1-1 this time and then last year came the destructive 2-2 draw at Everton, the match that saw the team lose Virgil van Dijk for the rest of the season. In that context, a sleepy lunchtime trip to Watford on Saturday looks positively benign.
Liverpool to draw at Watford – 4/1
Manchester United Remain Undefeated
As we saw above, United have played Liverpool a lot in this slot, the fixture computer mysteriously and repeatedly deciding that such a huge fixture is a nice way to restart the league season (this season, of course, they face each other next weekend instead). Overall, though United have the least to fear from the return of Premier League football in October as they have never lost in 29 games in this specific slot. They face Leicester this weekend, a repeat of their trip there in October 2000 when they cruised to a 3-0 win. This wasn’t as memorable as their 2-0 win there in March that year, famous as the first game played by David Beckham after he shaved his head. You simply don’t pull moves like that in autumn.
All four of David Beckham's headed goals in the Premier League came before he shaved his head in 2000 pic.twitter.com/euBwE3bWS6
— Duncan Alexander (@oilysailor) April 24, 2020
Tyne For A Change Of Fortune?
All eyes on St James’ Park on Sunday as Newcastle United play their first game in the post-Mike Ashley era. Unsurprisingly, given their up and down Premier League history, Newcastle’s performances in the October restart has varied over time. They won six of their first nine between 1993 and 2001 but after beating Tottenham 3-1 in 2007 have tasted victory just twice in 11 games in this slot. But there it is in black and white, so to speak, a home win against Tottenham. A repeat on Sunday in front of a sold out home crowd would go down well, with Magpies fans at least.
