PLAYING Bayern Munich at the Allianz Arena is Borussia Dortmund’s toughest away fixture of the domestic season. But in purely tactical terms, it’s also one of their easiest games, especially in light of their unexpected two-point lead in the table.

Unlike in all the other Bundesliga game they have played this year, most of them against purely destructive, deep-defending opposition, they don’t have to force the issue at all on Saturday night. For once, the Black and Yellows are in a position to play for a draw and hope for a win.

It’s the perfect place to be, considering they have at times struggled to break down deep defences in the second half of the season and have looked happiest when opponents took the game to them and left spaces for them to exploit in the final third. 

The 100th Der Klassiker in Bundesliga history might just be the biggest one yet…

1️⃣ Dortmund – 63 points
2️⃣ Bayern – 61 points

Bring. It. On pic.twitter.com/j93ysoZbdx

— Football on BT Sport (@btsportfootball) April 5, 2019

That’s exactly what happened in Dortmund when the two teams met back in November. Bayern had the upper hand for much of the game but ultimately fell victim in the final stages, as their own lack of cohesion and pace was brutally exposed by Lucien Favre’s man. The Swiss coach had accurately predicted the Bavarians’ inability to keep up the tempo in his half-way talk and made plans accordingly. 

History could well repeat itself. Bayern, and their embattled manager Niko Kovac in particular, have to win the game at all cost and will have to take risks at some stage. If the visitors can keep the score level, impatience in the stadium and lingering discontent in the dressing room with the 47-year-old’s lack of a precise game plan in possession will make for a very volatile mix.

hings haven’t been quite right in Munich all season, decent results since the winter break notwithstanding. It won’t take much for the tactical and socio-dynamic fissures to show. Bayern have not beaten any of the high-class opponents (Ajax, Dortmund, Liverpool) they have come up against in this campaign, and they have looked particularly vulnerable against quick transition attacks that exploit the vast spaces between the different sections of the team.

Kovač under pressure – Hoeneß: "On Saturday, there can be no excuses. We have to win"
Uli is apparently no longer willing to 'sacrifice the league' – Incase of a defeat, the bosses will wonder if Kovač is the right man for the most expensive upheaval in the club's history [Bild] pic.twitter.com/q73MF4AYGE

— Bayern & Germany (@iMiaSanMia) April 4, 2019

Kovac, a defensive coach by nature, has been unable to marry his vision of solid organisation with the team’s need for a flexible, dominant possession football. But even this flawed Bayern have enough firepower to overcome a Dortmund team short on quality and experience in defence.

Robert Lewandowski will fancy his chances, especially from crosses and set-pieces, where Favre’s men have really struggled in recent months. The Westphalians need to be much more switched on at the back to deal with this kind of threat, and build themselves a platform to bring their finely-tuned attack game to bear.

Both sides, as their disappointing Champions League last 16 exits against Premier League opponents showed, are not quite elite but they’ve had very different departure points. While Bayern have regressed since the Pep Guardiola era and become a team reliant on isolated moments of brilliance, Dortmund have improved rapidly in Favre’s reign and should get better in the next couple of years.

In light of Bayern’s big spending next summer – and a possible managerial change before too long – Saturday presents an opportunity that the Black and Yellows had better take.