THIS week in the Bundesliga, the final week of the 2019/20 season, is all about European qualification and relegation. Can Borussia Monchengladbach just about pip Bayer Leverkusen to fourth spot or will they blow it? Can Werder Bremen end one of the worst home records in Europe this season to save their Bundesliga status?
It's not quite the end of the season we wanted to see with so many teams challenging Bayern Munich for so long, but rest assured, this is going to be thrilling weekend of Bundesliga action. We've picked seven matches to discuss ahead of Saturday's 14:30 kick-off.
Augsburg vs RB Leipzig | Saturday June 27, 14:30 GMT
Barring a 27-goal defeat and a Bayer Leverkusen win, RB Leipzig's top four place is secured, however, slipping to a draw here would create the opportunity for Monchengladbach to steal third spot. Luckily for Julian Nagelsmann who has had a hit and miss first year at the Red Bull Arena, RB's away form is superb. In their last seven games on the road in all competitions, Leipzig are unbeaten with five wins, six clean sheets and two 5-0 wins to boot. Rectifying wasteful home form is Nagelsmann's mission for next season, but on Saturday, he just needs more of the same.
Having chosen to join Chelsea in July, Timo Werner will forego the rest of Leipzig's Champions League campaign meaning this will be the Germany international's last game for the club after four years, 158 games and 93 goals. 26 Bundesliga goals, 32 in all comps, already represents Werner's best ever return, but you simply cannot bet against notching again on his final outing, especially with six goals in his last five away games. Augsburg, winless in six at home and free from the drop, will be powerless to stop him.
Match Odds: Augsburg (7/1) Draw (4/1) RB Leipzig (4/11)
Tip: Timo Werner to score two or more (16/5)
Correct score: Augsburg 0-3 RB Leipzig (19/2)
Borussia Dortmund vs Hoffenheim | Saturday June 27, 14:30 GMT
Dortmund sealed second spot last week with a comfortable 2-0 win over league rivals Leipzig, and therefore cannot move up or down in the table. However, Hoffenheim's predicament will ensure this match is not a dead rubber. Level on 49 points with sixth-placed Wolfsburg, Hoffenheim's -4 goal difference has them in seventh, just outside the threshold for European qualification. With Wolfsburg hosting Bayern, both teams remain in the hunt.
A positive result against Dortmund would be a continuation of Hoffenheim's best ever top flight away form. Seven wins and 27 points represent two new Bundesliga records for Alfred Schreuder's side. They've also managed to avoid defeat in their last four clashes with Dortmund with two wins and two draws since 2018.
For Dortmund, this may well be the last supporters see of Achraf Hakimi who is set to return to Real Madrid and Jadon Sancho who is apparently joining every major club in Europe, so expect them to be at their supercharged best. But Dortmund have been exposed at home recently, losing both of their last two at Signal Iduna Park in fact. Slipping up against Hoffenheim, with their season on the line, would not be the biggest surprise.
Match Odds: Borussia Dortmund (3/4) Draw (33/10) Hoffenheim (3/1)
Tip: Erling Haaland to score any time (7/10)
Correct score: Borussia Dortmund 2-2 Hertha Berlin (19/2)
R. Lewandowski – 33
T. Werner – 26
J. Sancho – 17
W. Weghorst -16
R. Hennings – 15
___________________E. Haaland – 13 pic.twitter.com/HgpTmoCQL9
— Bundesliga English (@Bundesliga_EN) June 23, 2020
Bayer Leverkusen vs Mainz | Saturday June 27, 14:30 GMT
Bayer can still achieve their main aim for the season and finish in the top four, but it feels a bit like they've blown it. In their second post-lockdown game, Leverkusen saw off main challengers Borussia Monchengladbach 3-1 on their own patch but leapfrog them into fourth. Six games on, Bayer have collected just seven additional points and now trail Monchengladbach by a point heading into the final game.
Recent history is on their side with this fixture however, having won their last four games against Mainz, scoring 10 in the process and keeping three clean sheets. Leverkusen have also won eight of the last nine matches on the final day of the season, surely taking advantage of unenthusiastic opponents… which might be a good description of Mainz come Saturday.
With relegation seeming likely, Achim Beierlorzer's side promptly won three of their last four games – 2-0 at Eintracht, 2-0 at Dortmund, and crucially 3-1 against fellow strugglers Werder Bremen. Mainz can move up to 13th (from 11th) but having grafted so hard to secure their top flight status over the last few weeks, you wouldn't blame them for taking it easy in this one. Either way, Leverkusen absolutely need to win, and they have the talent to take advantage.
Match Odds: Bayer Leverkusen (27/100) Draw (27/5) Mainz (9/1)
Tip: Kai Havertz last goal scorer (29/10)
Correct score: Bayer Leverkusen 3-1 Mainz (17/2)
Borussia Monchengladbach vs Hertha Berlin | Saturday June 27, 14:30 GMT
Last week, Hertha Berlin beat Leverkusen to allow Monchengladbach to move into fourth place. This week, they can do the same to Monchengladbach… or royally screw Leverkusen over by losing! Although Hertha will finish midtable whatever happens, they have less reason to down tools being only eight games into Bruno Labbadia's reign. His side going into this game unbeaten in three against Monchengladbach having won this fixture 3-0 last year.
Convincing as that victory was, it was the only time Monchengladbach failed to beat Hertha in any of their last six meetings at Borussia-Park. Home form has been key to Marco Rose's impressive debut campaign. In the last 14 Bundesliga matches at home, his side have won 11, scoring at least two every time, and at least three in seven. With their tails firmly up knowing just one more will see them home in the race for the Champions League, Borussia must be backed here.
Don't take Hertha lightly. Their four post-lockdown wins are eclipsed only by Bayern (eight) and Dortmund (six) so at the very least we can say the Labbadia appointment has been a short-term success. But Monchengladbach's surge towards the top four under Rose has been one of the stories of the Bundesliga season. I just can't see it falling short at the final hurdle.
Match Odds: Borussia Monchengladbach (8/25) Draw (23/5) Hertha Berlin (15/2)
Tip: Lars Stindl to score any time (6/5)
Correct score: Borussia Monchengladbach 3-1 Hertha Berlin (17/2)
Werder Bremen vs FC Koln | Saturday June 27, 14:30 GMT
For Werder Bremen, their entire season boils down to this game. Win and they give themselves a chance to condemn Fortuna Dusseldorf to the relegation play-off; fail to win and they condemn themselves. Werder will have to get over what has become an obscenely bad home record however. In their last 14 games at the Weser Stadium, Bremen have won… none, drawn three, and lost 11. Staggeringly they've also failed to score in nine of the last 10.
But Koln themselves come into this game in poor form – no wins or clean sheets in the last nine rounds of games. They have managed to score in each of those games, so that suggests Werder will need to score at least two to win this one, the same amount of goals they've managed at home since November 23. Only Schalke (2) have collected fewer points than Koln (4) but they have a fine record against Werder – just one defeat in the last 10 Bundesliga meetings
Bremen's first and only home win of the season (a 3-2 win over Augsburg) came in September. It would be frankly ludicrous to suggest they will suddenly add to that, with the stakes higher than ever, and their Bundesliga status on the line. Koln's players may well turn up in proverbial beach hats and flip-flops, but even then, I'd expect them to get a result away to Werder.
Match Odds: Werder Bremen (13/20) Draw (33/10) Koln (18/5)
Tip: Draw (33/10)
Correct score: Werder Bremen 1-1 Koln (15/2)
Union Berlin vs Fortuna Dusseldorf | Saturday June 27, 14:30 GMT
Although they comfortably beat Union 3-0 in the return fixture, the chance of a league double is a reduced by the fact Fortuna do not travel well. They have the Bundesliga's worst away record this season having collected just 12 points. In all likelihood, a draw would work for them as it would mean Bremen would need to beat Koln by four clear goals, and drawing has become a bit of a habit for Fortuna of late. Uwe Rösler's side have drawn nine of their last 14 games, and have lost to only Bayern Munich and Borussia Dortmund since the Bundesliga restarted.
Home fans present or not, Union will want to finish their stellar debut campaign in the Bundesliga in style, but they will be without 12-goal top scorer Sebastian Andersson who misses out through suspension. However, after taking the lead and dropping points in three of their last six home games, and drawing three of the last five, a draw seems the likely result here.
Match Odds: Union Berlin (3/1) Draw (13/5) Fortuna Dusseldorf (10/11)
Tip: Union Berlin to win at least one half (13/10)
Correct score: Union Berlin 1-1 Fortuna Dusseldorf (23/4)
Wolfsburg vs Bayern Munich | Saturday June 27, 14:30 GMT
We'll end with the champions who of course have nothing left to play for bar preserving Hansie Flick's 90% win rate so far, and of course any lingering ambitions they have with regards to goals scored. Averaging 3.1 goals per game under Flick – the best record of any Bundesliga manager ever – Bayern have already amassed a league record 96 goals. Robert Lewandowski has already notched his personal best in the Bundesliga (33 goals) which is sufficient for second place on the all-time list. Bayern will want 100 goals, and Lewandowksi will want to finish with 35.
Bayer Leverkusen's place in the DFB Pokal Final may well mean seventh gets you into the Europa League this season. If so, Wolfsburg will be fine even if Hoffenheim end up overtaking them. However, Oliver Glasner's side cannot predict and must therefore go for the win – a dangerous game against one of the best counter-attacking sides in Europe.
Match Odds: Wolfsburg (14/5) Draw (7/2) Bayern Munich (3/4)
Tip: Robert Lewandowski to score first (14/5)
Correct score: Wolfsburg 1-3 Bayern Munich (10/1)
