THAT fixture computer. Last Sunday it gave us Manchester United versus Arsenal, historically the biggest game in the Premier League, and this weekend it’s Manchester City against Liverpool, aka The One Where Both Sides Have Recently Been Champions.
Last year we anticipated this fixture, indeed all games between City and Liverpool, as pivotal but by the time it was played the title had already gone to Anfield and it was two days before July the fourth. Liverpool won it early, earlier than any other team based on games played. City’s title defence and attempt to become only the fifth English club to win three in a row were over.
There are few football clubs better placed than Manchester City to speak about a decline in performances after a league win. Ponder champions who have slumped in the following campaign and Chelsea in 2015-16 and Leicester in 2016-17 spring to mind, both recording 37 points fewer in those seasons than they had in the one prior, with Jose Mourinho and Claudio Ranieri paying the ultimate price.
However, only one club in English top-flight history has ever been relegated as reigning champions and that is Manchester City. 1936-37 had been a good one with City finishing top of the First Division three points clear of Charlton, and Manchester United suffering relegation at the other end. But 12 months later City had, somehow, finished 21st and were on their way to the second tier, replaced by Manchester United.
Pep Guardiola on what #ManCity need to do between now and #MCILIV: "I saw the forecast and the new few days will be sunny in Manchester. That is rare, wow. That is why we’re going to recover tomorrow and Thursday and Friday, Saturday we’re going to prepare."
[via @ManCityMEN]
— Man City Xtra (@City_Xtra) November 3, 2020
“Hang on,” you mutter, “other than Manchester United being embroiled in a relegation battle I’m struggling to see how this has much relevance in 2020.” True, but the underwhelming nature of City’s title defence last season went slightly under the radar as people concentrated on Liverpool’s consistency (August-February) and the global pandemic (March-July).
Not only that, but Pep Guardiola is in his fifth season at the club, an unprecedented tenure for him, his Guy Roux period. The painful exit to Lyon in the Champions League has clearly made him rethink certain elements of his approach but so far, in the Premier League at least, it’s not had the desired effect. At the back City are allowing their opponents an xG of 1.25 per game, considerably higher than 0.99 last season, which was already the worst rate in Guardiola’s time at the club. The drop off in defensive solidity since the retirement of Vincent Kompany is not a new discovery but there it is in black and white all the same.
And while the defence is struggling to find consistency, the attack is doing no better. City’s nine goals in six games is their lowest goals per game rate in the league since 2007-08 and their xG per game of 1.3 is the lowest recorded by them in the blessed era of Expected Goals. Put simply, so far this season City are creating and allowing chances of roughly the same quality. Sounds like mid-table fare and that’s exactly where they are, in 10th place.
Liverpool’s attempt to retain the league title for the first time since their three in a row between 1982 and 1984 has been a wild ride so far, with the club top of the table despite having the second worst defence behind West Brom. But if one thing stands out about Jurgen Klopp’s team this season it’s that they are refusing to wallow in the misfortune that has come their way and instead have just turned every dial up to 11.
Below are Stats Perform’s playing styles for City and Liverpool and as you’d expect for the two strongest teams in the division they are both way above the league average in almost every area. Liverpool’s fast tempo is considerably up from last season and that passes the eye test. If you lose Virgil van Dijk but gain additional firepower in the form of Diogo Jota then why not party like it’s 2016 again and roll out the heavy metal football.
The key difference between Liverpool and City appears to be direct play, where Liverpool are around the Premier League average while City are 40% below. Again, that’s not hugely surprising but when combined with Liverpool’s above average usage of crossing and the sight of Trent Alexander-Arnold galloping back into form, it does suggest that Liverpool have more than one way of opening up opponents, especially ones with City’s current defensive frailties.
In terms of sheer quality, neither City nor Liverpool are at the level they were in 2018-19 when they got 99 and 98 points respectively. Defensive decline, injury, retirement and myriad other factors are responsible for that but in many ways that’s a good thing. The intense yet ultimately drama-free run-in of spring 2019 needed a bit of calamity. It needed a Keegan 96.
Both these teams now have considerably more flaws, but Liverpool seem like they can bounce back from adversity that little bit quicker. Whether that relaxes them ahead of what should be their hardest league game of the season remains to be seen but it’s a nice thing to have in your back pocket.
