Mensur Suljovic vs Daryl Gurney
As we go to the only Welsh venue on the Premier League Darts tour, Mensur Suljovic will have mixed emotions as he graces the first match of the night at The Motorpoint Arena.
This is the very venue where he won his 2017 Champions League title against Gary Anderson, and had so many memorable performances, but more recently he has to find a way to rebound after suffering the double against Gerwyn Price. Gezzy definitely has had his number in this PL, but the upside for Suljovic is that he is only out of the top four on leg difference, and only one leg at that.
There are a staggering four players on 12 points, and that alone has to make this the most interesting playoff run in we have ever had. Daryl Gurney is one of those four, but he is at the bottom of that pile three legs behind Mensur in the leg difference category. That makes this game immense, on a night where you could pick your game of the night from any on show.
If Gurney can get a win, he will usurp Mensur and possibly some more players in the standings. It won’t be that simple, but he has to take comfort knowing that he put in a fabulous display against the Austrian in Rotterdam on the first night there. Gurney is waiting to pop at the minute after having a very good start to the season, and he could earmark this game as his most important of the year so far, because if he were to lose it badly, he is then under pressure to win games by big margins in the coming weeks.
Gurney got a draw against Wade last week in Liverpool and considering the form of The Machine, that’s a good result, but he needs more than that here. However a draw wouldn’t be the end of the world. The same goes for Mensur who would dearly love to protect that leg difference advantage over the Northern Irishman.
I can’t split these players at this juncture, but based on the last game they played, I think Gurney will do just what Gezzy did to Mensur and get a second win over him in this campaign.
Best bet: Gurney to win at 6/5
Rob Cross vs Michael Van Gerwen
As I said before, you can pick your game of the night out of any in Cardiff, but this one sticks out massively. It's a top of the table clash to see who will be top come Birmingham on April 25th. What a season Rob Cross is having in response to all his critics earlier in the year.
He is brimming with everything that he needs to win this league phase and take home that £25,000 bonus. There is only one thing missing, and that is a win over MVG. His only low point so far in a more or less faultless journey was an off night against Michael Van Gerwen in Dublin, but since then he has rebounded immaculately with a points swag bag draped over his shoulders, full of loot.
Voltage was just too good against Wright a week ago, and once again he pulled off the Rob Cross 302. Now, there are players in history who have doubles named after them, there are players who have finishes named after them, but Cross has a number named after him over 300 simply because of his method of approach and ability to pull it off. Five treble 18’s followed by a double 16 is now the Voltage shot and when you do it in front of the world three times in massive moments, you are entitled to call it your own.
You could question where MVG gets his motivation sometimes, and a week ago in Liverpool he looked genuinely annoyed that he couldn’t finish the evening on the top of the table, no matter what he did to home favourite Michael Smith. However, that didn’t stop him putting in a marvellous display and consequently setting up this encounter which tantalises the taste buds.
He will feel he has Robs number when it comes to big matches, as Cross has only beaten him a total of three times out of 16, but Cross will dig deep in this and it could be a slugfest. If it is 10% of what they delivered in that epic world semi final in the 2018 world championship, then we are in for a treat.
It's hard to call this one, but if you are going to look for a market, it could be in the 180s as there could be a silly amount if Rob stays upstairs enough instead of switching for 177s.
Best bet: Over 7.5 180s at 4/5
Michael Smith vs Gerwyn Price
For some reason it feels like Bully Boy is getting the raw end of the stick in this campaign. Whenever he needs something to go his way, it just doesn’t seem to turn out like that and this week he has to contend with a homecoming that is six months in the making.
Gerwyn Price hasn’t had much positive support since winning The Grand Slam of Darts in Wolverhampton in 2018, but one thing that was very evident after that win was how the Welsh on social media got behind their boy. They have waited a long time to give him the darting hug that he hasn’t had anywhere else, and it will feel very strange for a dart player who has thrived in arenas where he is booed and jeered constantly.
The big question here is, amongst other things, can Price perform when he is popular and feed off a positive crowd? We don’t have a lot of evidence of this aside from times at Minehead in March where he found himself cheered on by a lot of travelling Welsh supporters.
We do know the predicament for Smith. He needs to win all his remaining games to be in with a shout of making the play-offs. That is a very hard task, but if he breaks everything down into that old cliche of “one game at a time,” there is nothing he can’t do. He is not playing poorly by any mean – excellent floor form in recent weeks proves that. He just needs to concentrate that form into a best of 14 match in Cardiff first and then handle the job at hand post result. He cannot be bogged down by his 4-point deficit to the top four just now, as it's all about getting this win.
My initial gut says that Bully Boy Smith gets a win here, but it would be something to see a Welsh celebration on Thursday night. In order to stay in the top four, Gezzy will need minimum a point and because of Michael’s frustrations in his last few PL games I am going to say he will get one at least.
Best bets: Draw at 18/5, Price to win at 6/4
Peter Wright vs James Wade
Watch out Peter Wright here, because he is up against a player who has won three of the last four ranking events. Wadey is on a hot streak in Players Championship events and after doing the double at the weekend in Barnsley, who is going to bet against James getting two points in Wales? It could be that the massively experienced multiple major winner has never felt more in control of his game and more confident.
That spells big trouble for Wright who is desperate for two points to keep his faint playoff hopes alive, and what is more important is that Peter has not won a PL match since Week 5 in Aberdeen, and that came against the eliminated Raymond Van Barneveld. We can say what we like about Peter's form just now, but he can still eke out draws and take points from people when we think he is about to get toasted, which was the case when he played James Wade in Berlin.
A lot has happened since Berlin though. Wright had a nightmare Rotterdam double header, hasn’t won a ranked event this year yet, and on the flip side, Wade has done the complete opposite. He has got lots of legs in the bank in a tightly packed middle section of the table, he is in winning form and is looking to put pressure on the top two going to the West Midlands in Week 13. He will know how adrift of Cross and MVG he will be going into this match, and nothing but a win will suffice and I think he gets it. He is being too ruthless right now and I can’t see the streak of winless weeks snapped for Wright, and consequently he may not make the playoffs because of too many draws in the campaign.
Wright has fighting qualities but if James gets out of the blocks like he did against Gurney in Aberdeen, the margin could be big. The only reason I can see Wadey losing here is if he hits the wall of tiredness after a frantic few weeks of ranking action. Even with that, I don’t see him dropping points.
Best bet: Wade to win at 27/20
UniBets of the night
1) Smith/Price game. A red checkout in leg 1 is more likely than not due to both players being tops, tens and twelves players. Add the bullseye being red and its even more likely. It's short at 7/25 but it would be wise to put this in your accumulator if you’re doing one.
2) Wade to win and have highest checkout – 33/10
3) Over 7.5 180s in the MVG/Cross match – 4/5 Surely they will have at least four each.
