Mensur Suljovic v Michael Smith
Once again, the loveable Austrian opens the show. This time on a night where he will be looking to get back into the top 4 of the league. He did everything right last week in getting a win over Daryl Gurney. He took advantage of lots of missed doubles from Northern Irelands number one and walked out of his favourite Welsh arena with two valuable points.
The only reason he isn’t in the top four right now is because of leg difference, and it's only one leg at that. He will not only want to get two more points here, but he will be looking to get a big margin of victory to help his cause.
Michael Smith has had a miserable week, and you have to feel for Bully Boy as he is trying so hard to turn things around. He banged in a memorable 170 checkout against Price last week early in the match, only to see The Iceman do exactly the same in the next leg. He lost that match to the home favourite and showed magnificent sportsmanship in defeat, but you do feel that his playoff race is run now, being 5 points adrift of the top 4 with only 4 league nights remaining. I said last week that he needed to win his last 5 matches to have any chance, but even if he wins these last 4 now, I still don't think it will get him back to The O2, where he made the final last season.
After the European tour event at the weekend where Suljovic made the quarter-finals and played some great darts, and Smith going out in his first game to Ricky Evans 6-0, you have to place Suljovic as a firm favourite for this match, and it is with Mensur I go. I think he gets two more points here to put immediate pressure on Gezzy in their mini battle for spot 4 in the standings. Mensur wins, then Price knows what he has to do to respond.
Best bet: Suljovic to win – 29/20
Rob Cross v Gerwyn Price
If Price is in need of two points, and I think he might be, he is going to have to conjure up some more magic like he produced in Cardiff.
Gerwyn will be fresh and ready for this after taking a week off from tour darts, spending some time with the family over Easter and putting his fruit crumble skills to good work, but its crumbling he won’t want on Thursday night as he goes head to head with someone who bested him in Berlin earlier in the campaign with a scoreline of 7-4.
Cross had a good run in Munich to the semi-finals where he suffered a third consecutive walloping to MVG. His form on the whole was excellent going into that last four encounter but once more he came up against someone who has his number. That being more proof of it after Michael Van Gerwen took 8 straight legs from him in Cardiff after Voltage opened up a 2-0 lead. Some will look at his constant defeats to the man in green as a worrying sign, but it's just part and parcel of this stage of the season sometimes. Cross is playing superbly and doing some damaging work to other players chances, however, everyone has a bete noir and MVG is that to Rob just now.
Moving forward, Rob will try and put more pressure on Mighty Mike at the league's pinnacle by getting two points in this one, and if he does, he may cast Gezzy out of the playoff spots. Those aspects make this a crunch game for O2 standings and as the run in keeps motoring towards London, it will get more edgy week by week.
On stats right now, you should go with Cross, but Gezzy will be fresher than Rob. Will that play its part in a hectic tour week where Voltage only has 24 hours at home, and Price is only a couple of hours from the venue after a week off? I am going to say that Cross steals a close one here, but not until we’ve had a few scares of big outs and plenty of switching around the board, as these guys love to do.
Daryl Gurney v Peter Wright
Gurney was livid with losing to Mensur in Cardiff. He knows that a chance has been missed to stay in the race for London, and now he is up against it. He is extremely aware that if Suljovic and Price win before him on this night, nothing less than two points against Snakebite will do.
Gurneys doubling stats were put in the bin after Wales and he recovered very well in Munich at the weekend where he played so much better. He only just got edged out by Rob Cross in the last 16, but it was an epic match and one that he could walk away from with a smile, not wasting energy on what if’s and the like. His form is good, and he will need a sharp game to ensure a victory, and a big one at that, which is what he needs to do to get back in touch with the playoff runners. His leg difference of -5 is 10 behind 4th placed Gerwyn Price, so even if he wins a tight one, he might still be behind the eight ball come the end of the evening.
Wright is now in the same boat as Michael Smith. The majority of folk aren’t giving him any hope of making The O2 now. He was resoundingly beaten by James Wade a week back and his use of thin points with a spring-like action were called into question by everyone. Peter may think they were going to help him, but I feel they were another ingredient in the confusion he currently has with his game. I am a huge snakebite fan, and a friend of Peter Wright and it breaks my heart to see him so at odds with his game. Another early defeat in a pro tour event in Munich saw him convincingly done by Ross Smith on Easter Sunday night, and with that added to the plight he is currently swimming in, you can’t see anything but a Gurney victory.
They had a draw last time round in Nottingham, but since then Gurney has done way more for his season cause, and that makes him a white-hot favourite here. Also, Gurney is starting to hot up in the 180s again and he should boss this category in Brum.
Best bet: Gurney, Most 180s – 19/20
Michael Van Gerwen v James Wade
What a match this could be!! Both in the playoff spots, one on top and one really staking a claim for a return to the O2. Last time they met, James Wade was masterful in inflicting MVG’s first league phase defeat of 2019.
There has been plenty more encouragement for Wadey since then too, with big margin wins making his leg difference so much better than that of Gurney, Suljovic and Price. That is why he is in a prime spot to go back to London, and the way he is playing, there is every chance he will trouble Michael Van Gerwen again.
On another note though, its MVG’s birthday come Birmingham and it will be his first day in his 30’s. 30 being an apt number as he picked up an unprecedented 30th European Tour crown at the weekend. An astonishing stat as second in the list of winners in that category has a lowly 6 titles, sarcasm attached. Some achievement for the Dutch Maestro.
The next job for Michael though is to get back at James and solidify his top spot in the race. If Cross gets a win in match two, all Michael will need is a point to go back to number 1, however, he will want nothing less than a victory for his big day.
Yes, Michael won at the weekend and inflicted a massive defeat on Cross in Cardiff, but he has shown signs of tiredness and vulnerability in the last week and if he isn’t 100% in the West Midlands, we know that The Machine will take advantage. Michael almost lost to Ted Evetts in the Munich quarter-finals, but his streak of 20 sudden death leg victories in Europe cannot be ignored. When he needs to dig deep just now, it is there, make no mistake.
How can you possibly back against the birthday boy who just got another title and two points last week? I am not going to, and I see MVG winning by two or three legs.
Best bet: MVG to win -2.5 legs – 4/6
UniBets of the Night
1 – Daryl Gurney – King of the oche at 5/1. The biggest if here is the biggest checkout but Gurney does have them in the locker.
2 – MVG and Wade to play over 12.5 legs at 4/5. Surely this match has some legs in it.
3 – Cross or Price to have a checkout of over 125.5 at 17/20 is tasty considering how many big checkouts they have had this year so far.
