FOR the second Sunday running Arsenal face a serious test of their title aspirations, this one very different to the last.
Manchester City travelled to the Emirates last weekend as an equal, a team that shares the Gunners’ intent on toppling a terrific Liverpool side in the ascendency. Newcastle by comparison are easier foes, on paper at least, a collective that has failed to ignite in their opening exchanges this season.
But in this fixture they are so often high-functioning pests, getting under the Gunners’ skin. They have a habit of showing the world flaws that we all suspect Mikel Arteta’s men to have, but rarely see.
The Magpies have only lost three of their last nine encounters with Arsenal and at half past four on Sunday afternoon St James Park will be a cauldron.
Does this therefore mean the hosts should be fancied to extend on this decent track record? Not when we get among the weeds of their results and performances to date, a series of mixed displays that suggest Newcastle have yet to properly get going.
There have been positives, that must be acknowledged, but the chief concern is how lightweight they look up front, a consequence no doubt of having a big Alexander Isak shaped hole in their attack, while Anthony Gordon’s suspension and Yoane Wissa’s injury have hardly helped matters.
The fact remains however that Newcastle’s 5.4 shots per 90 return is way down on their 9.7 average last term. They have registered a mere 2.6 shots on target per game.
Naturally this has resulted in a lack of goals, with Eddie Howe’s side failing to score in each of their three away fixtures, while it took a debut goal from Nick Woltemade to break the deadline against Wolves last time out in the North-East. Elsewhere, Wolves have conceded 2.7 per 90.
This weekend the Magpies can be expected to go all gun’s blazing, to play with intensity and fortitude. But if they’re only armed with blanks, what damage can they realistically do?
Under 0.5 goals for the hosts tempts at 7/4
As a sidenote it should be noted too that Newcastle require more from their midfield of Guimaraes, Joelinton and Tonali, a trio that is beautifully balanced and, at times, as impactful as anything the rest of the Premier League can offer. Yet if their front six have been somewhat subpar there is no doubting how resilient and well-organised their back-line is. Four out of five clean sheets is unsurprisingly a league-high.
Add to this a recent trend for low-scoring affairs when these sides meet – only one of the last 11 has produced over two goals – and a thriller seems unlikely, even if it’s sure to be lively.
Sixteen of the last 20 meetings have been won to nil. Arsenal to win 1-0 offers up 6/1
So what of the visitors, and a manager who has received something of a backlash this week for the conservative team he selected vs City, initially leaving Eze, Saka and Martinelli on the bench until a second-half comeback was called for.
Whether you agree with his decision or not, there is no questioning the outcome, a draw proving to be satisfactory in the great scheme of a title race.
Arteta’s line-up this weekend therefore will be of particular interest, especially with Martin Odegaard back in the reckoning. Balancing this out, Noni Madueke is injured leaving the coast clear for Bukayo Saka to make his first start since Leeds.
The winger doesn’t tend to reserve his best performances for this fixture, with just one goal involvement in his last seven.
Elsewhere, Viktor Gyokeres was all-but-anonymous vs City, losing possession 13 times from his meagre 22 touches, and doing little of note with the other nine. It should concern too that the usually prolific Swede failed to register a single shot at Anfield or Old Trafford.
Again, this lends itself to a low-scoring contest, with Newcastle minus a finisher and Arsenal’s expensive one struggling so far in the bigger games.
In Zubimendi and Rice though the Gunners have a midfield pairing who are purring, the former in particular standing out via some exceptional displays.
Let’s end by revisiting the head-to-head because if the prevailing narrative of this fixture in recent years has been Newcastle’s ability to rattle Arsenal it is also known for its friction. Last season’s two clashes saw a yellow card flourished every 16.3 minutes. Their last four meetings have produced 5.7 cautions per 90.
Though Jarrod Gillet is in charge – a referee who likes to keep his book in his pocket when at all possible – a healthy tally can be anticipated again.
Exactly four yellows to be shown at 18/5 appeals here
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