WHEN trying to identify next May’s four title winners before a ball has even been kicked in anger, we inevitably encounter a whole series of unknowns.

Will new signings settle? Will last season’s star performers reach those heights again? What impact will Club X’s new manager have? He unquestionably pulled up trees in Ligue 1 last term, but this is an entirely new ball game.

Moreover, with a month remaining of the transfer window, squads are not yet fully conceived. A title contender in League Two could lose their prized asset. A Play-Off hopeful in the Championship could seriously upgrade their iffy defence with a couple of clever swoops.

Heading to the outrights pre-August therefore can see us lean into theories, even guesswork.

Thankfully there is the process of elimination to help us out, a process that is much undervalued across the world of betting for what it’s worth.

Take the Premier League as a prime example. We all know that only Liverpool, Manchester City, Arsenal or Chelsea will secure the league crown next Spring, barring a Leicester-style fairy tale that cannot be accounted for. That’s 80% of the runners and riders ruled out at a stroke.

Focusing on that quartet we can determine that Chelsea have the weakest group of centre-backs in terms of personnel, and furthermore, unless Joao Pedro or Liam Delap bang in the goals with impressive regularity they remain a team that can be wasteful up front.

There is also an over-reliance on Cole Palmer, their results suffering last year when the midfielder’s form dipped.

The Blues have it in them to challenge, but ultimately, they can’t top their peers over ten gruelling months.

Can Arsenal? Popular consensus has it that they’ve been a top striker shy of going that extra yard for some time and now they have purchased long-term target Viktor Gyokeres to address that.

Yet, as clinical as the Swede undoubtedly is, will he suit the Gunners’ style of play? On that the jury is out for a player with a highly suspect first touch.

Which leaves Liverpool and City and the prospect of them reviving their duopoly. Both teams have spent heavily to date, splurging a combined £430m on genuinely exciting new additions, each capable of setting the top-flight alight.

But while City’s expenditure is an overhaul, Liverpool’s outlay has improved them from a position of strength. Add in that at least a couple of signings could initially struggle to grasp Guardiola’s complicated mandate and a consecutive title could well be heading to Anfield.

Back Liverpool to win the Premier League at 9/5

Dropping down into the Championship we must first acknowledge that over the last 25 years, 38% of second-tier champions were in the Premier League twelve months prior. Add in their parachute payments and is it any wonder that Ipswich and Southampton top the betting, priced up at 7/2 and 5/1 respectively to finish as champions.

Before we pick an overall winner, however, in a league generally considered to be one of the toughest, and most competitive, in the world, there are a couple of shouts that need to be shouted.

Norwich City are 13/2 to gain promotion and with Liam Manning now at the helm, and following a string of canny signings, that tempts.

West Brom meanwhile are a generous 5/1 to finish higher than any other Midlands club and that appeals greatly too.

Granted, that means the Baggies must out-perform much fancied big-spenders Birmingham, no small feat in itself. But last term’s mid-table fare have recruited wisely, revamping both their defence and attack. If Ryan Mason takes to full-time management, they could be a dark horse to watch.

Who though gets the nod to come top of the pile? Frankly, it’s hard to look past favourites Ipswich in this regard. The Tractor Boys have the know-how, overall quality, and manager in Kieran McKenna. The likes of Omari Hutchinson and Jaden Philogene can run riot at this level and their most pressing concern going into the summer was in the middle of the park. They have resolved this well with the addition of Azor Matusiwa from Rennes.

They are the team to try and topple for sure.

Back Ipswich to win the Championship at 7/2

And so to League One, that last year treated us to a four-way scrap at the top for the most part until Birmingham ran away with it.

Of the two teams that ultimately missed out – Stockport and Wycombe – it is the Hatters who are in the best shape to compete again, their summer churn seeing striker Isaac Olaofe depart but replaced by Malik Mothersille for a club record fee. What County do exceedingly well is improve themselves each and every year while retaining stability. It’s a neat trick to pull off.

Huddersfield too are in the reckoning, especially after capturing forward Alfie May, while Bolton should thrive under Steven Schumacher. Having taken Plymouth up in 2023, the Liverpudlian has used his first transfer window to forge a team in his own image.

Again though – and mirroring the reasons given for Ipswich – it is difficult to find any fault in Luton Town’s status as favourites.

Simply put, from recent adventures in the Premier League and Championship they have accumulated too many players who could have a massive impact at this level, while pertinently Matt Bloomfield has added two more for good measure in George Saville and Nahki Wells. The latter is a serious contender to finish top goal-scorer in the division come May.

Back Luton Town to win League One at 7/2

So far, each pick has been the favourite, so let’s end by going out on a limb for League Two, an open field save for MK Dons who are widely fancied to prevail.

Bossed by promotion-specialist Paul Warne, the Dons have bought shrewdly and early, and they will almost certainly still be in the conversation when fixtures become six-pointers and the pressure builds.

But this is the league where anything can happen, one that saw the top six separated by only 12 points last season and a remarkable seven clubs going into the final day with play-off aspirations.

It makes sense therefore to go a little left-field, benefitting from terrific value in the process.

Swindon Town are 14/1 to replicate their title-winning campaign of 2019/20 and they certainly have the firepower to do so, banging in 71 goals last term despite finishing mid-table. It is an arsenal they have further enhanced by bringing in the highly prolific Jake Tabor from non-league.

In the dug-out meanwhile Ian Holloway is no stranger to promotions himself and what intrigues is that ‘Ollie’ is very much an all or nothing manager, overseeing miracles when players buy into his methods and disasters when they don’t.

With the Robins picking up the third most points from Christmas on last season – two months after Holloway’s arrival – we could well see more of the former than the latter.

Back Swindon Town to win League Two at 14/1

A four-fold acca backing Liverpool, Ipswich, Luton and Swindon to win their leagues offers up an enormous 800/1

Please remember to gamble responsibly. Visit our Safer Gambling section for more information, help and advice.