UFC pop star Sean O’Malley can land a huge 5/1 upset with a revenge points victory over bantamweight champion Merab Dvalishvili at UFC 316 on Saturday night.
Last summer, Dvalishvili utilised his incredible cardio and relentless grappling to overwhelm O’Malley and wrestle away the 135lb championship belt.
But the former king maintains he was injured and ill-prepared in Las Vegas and will prove it once the Octagon door gets locked shut in New Jersey this weekend.
REMATCH
Dvalishvili’s first fight with O’Malley was much closer than many recall.
I was inside the Sphere for the landmark Noche UFC event last summer and, whilst Merab undoubtedly captured the title, O’Malley did enough to win two of the five rounds.
Merab, 34, looked awesome in the opening 10 minutes, scoring takedowns and slipping under gung-ho O’Malley’s overloaded strikes.
But in round three, Sean landed a big knee and, for the first time, pushed Merab backwards, taking control of the centre of the Octagon.
The Georgian surged back with another grapple-heavy controlling effort in the fourth, but Sean’s best round of the fight followed in the fifth.
Repeated teep kicks to Merab’s midsection left him reeling against the fence – he looked human for once – and literally counting down the seconds until the final bell.
If Sean can channel that aggression and momentum earlier in this fight, reversing the scorecards would be a lot more straight forward than some may think.
SUGA SHOW
O’Malley admitted to suffering from a torn labrum going into the first fight and shoulder surgery right after quantified the excuse.
But the 30-year-old has also made further changes of note. He’s taken a break from his expansive social media, quit smoking marijuana, and turned his fight camp upside down.
Both he and his team have moved to a brand-new gym, and his mindset has reversed.
He’s no longer walking and talking like a superstar, he’s behaving like he did on his way to the top the first time around. He’s returned to the role of hungry contender.
Less Suga, more Sean.
THE MACHINE
Yet whilst O’Malley has done some soul searching since losing the belt, Merab has gone soul-snatching.
He moved onto the next leading bantamweight contender to start the year and levelled up again.
Battering previously unbeaten and highly-fancied Umar Nurmagomedov – first cousin of lightweight great Khabib, who was in the corner – Merab officially got his reign underway.
That’s 12 straight wins for the Georgian, who ‘s tenacity, spirit and determination are truly unmatched.
PART 2
We will get a whole new and improved version of O’Malley on Saturday.
Now he’s been humbled, he’s gone away, committed to the work and should be faster, sharper and more explosive than ever.
But will ‘Suga 2.0’ even be enough to defeat Merab, whose chin and cardio have never failed him.
One chink in his armour, perhaps, could bizarrely be the fact Merab is now in the conversation as the greatest bantamweight in UFC history.
His one downfall? A lack of finishes.
Just one early night in a dozen convincing performances is a criticism that’s impacting Merab’s mentality, and he’s under pressure from both fans and his own coaches to start making statements.
That could mean taking unnecessary risks and provide O’Malley with targets that simply weren’t offered to him last year.
If Sean can land something substantial early, he’s got the footwork and capacity to pick up rounds and survive an onslaught to the final bell.
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