IN a Premier League top-heavy with super-squads, all costing several hundred million pounds, there is something quite telling in leading clubs still unravelling due to the absence of individuals.
Manchester City have been a shadow of their former selves since Rodri succumbed to an ACL. As for Arsenal, they have missed Martin Odegaard terribly even if results and performances initially suggested otherwise.
The Norwegian is their chief source of clever creativity. He additionally leads their press and moreover, in a more abstract sense, he makes them tick.
It is potentially huge news therefore that the 25-year-old is in contention to start at Stamford Bridge this weekend, after training for a couple of weeks on the grass.
His possible return feels especially significant given the Gunners’ travails in recent weeks, losing at Bournemouth and Newcastle, either side of sharing the spoils with Liverpool. In the North-East last Saturday, Mikel Arteta’s men were far too passive, lacking in inventiveness and their usual intensity, and if excuses can be made for their other dropped points here, for the first time in a long time, Arsenal looked to be a team in need of repair.
Can they recover at the home of their city rivals? Certainly there is an awful lot at stake, with another defeat ending any talk of a title challenge, the conversation instead turning to a top four scrap.
It’s no exaggeration to claim then that this game will define Arsenal’s season. It may even ultimately define the Arteta era.
Martin Odegaard is back training with @Arsenal 👋
With matches against Inter Milan and Chelsea coming up for the Gunners this week, will we see him in action? pic.twitter.com/qBha7qFcAq
— Premier League (@premierleague) November 5, 2024
Some genuine encouragement lies in previous meetings, with the Gunners unbeaten in five at the Bridge. But then it must also be acknowledged that these fine results were at the expense of a Chelsea side consumed by chaos and that is fundamentally no longer the case.
Regardless, Bukayo Saka clearly relishes playing in West London, boasting a goal involvement in each of his last three visits. No top-flight player has posted more assists this term and the winger is an obvious threat.
Then there’s Kai Havertz who it may surprise to learn has statistically been Arsenal’s second best player in 2024/25. To solely the eye-test the German seems to flatter to deceive every other game.
Still, he’s bagged four and taken on 2.8 shots per 90 to this point and coming up against his former club he will be highly motivated to make an impact.
What intrigues about Havertz is his aerial prowess that is too often under-appreciated. On four occasions this season he has committed to a headed attempt on goal, scoring from one of them. Last term, he converted three with his noggin.
This leads us to the Player Specials market and a punt well worth taking on a forward who has scored with his head every ten games since the start of 2023/24.
Back Havertz to score from a header at 20/1
Whether it’s Havertz, Saka or a touch-out-of-sorts Trossard who beats a very-out-of-sorts Robert Sanchez this Sunday, Arsenal should be fancied to score, not least because Chelsea have failed to keep a clean sheet in their last six league outings at home.
Remarkably, all-but-one of their seven goals conceded at the Bridge have originated from problems down their right, two of them calamitous.
That Achilles Heel aside however, all appears bright and promising in SW6 with Enzo Maresca transforming the Blues into a fully functioning unit full of guile, attacking intent and shared purpose.
At the heart of everything Moises Caicedo and Romeo Lavia are striking up a formidable midfield partnership and it will be interesting to see how Declan Rice fares when facing the pair, he arguably being the only Arsenal player to maintain decent form across their recent slump.
But of course the most stand-out player to note is Cole Palmer, the phenomenally gifted 22-year-old who continues to conjure up regular moments of magic. Looking for all the world like he’s a little bit bored, Palmer has contributed the most goal involvements in the Premier League this term (seven goals and five assists) while additionally creating the most chances from open play (24).
A scan later this week will reveal whether his bruised knee is anything worse and it goes without saying that Chelsea have a far better chance of prevailing this weekend if that scan is favourable.
The ice cold schemer would have been tipped to make a difference vs Arsenal but with doubts over his fitness let’s switch to Nicolas Jackson who, in truth, is hardly a compromise.
Proving his doubters wrong on an almost weekly basis, the striker has notched six, accruing an impressive shot accuracy of 61%. He has also racked up the third highest number of shots on target of any top-flight performer.
Back Jackson over 1.5 shots on target at 23/10
From a personal perspective, Chelsea are fancied to come out on top in this fascinating – and hopefully enthralling – London derby, for the simple reason they are the team presently in the best shape. Moreover, they are at home.
Perhaps though, a safer bet gets behind the prospect of goals and a fair few of them, this being a fixture that doesn’t usually disappoint in this regard.
Four of their last five encounters have produced 4+.
BTTS and total goals over 2.5 offers up 10/13
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