MANCHESTER United’s purchase of Manuel Ugarte this week adds a series of unknowns to Sunday’s clash at Old Trafford.
Will the combative Uruguayan be thrown straight into proceedings? That depends on international clearance and whether Erik Ten Hag believes Casemiro has a fourth consecutive decent showing in him.
The Brazilian’s days are numbered at United but to his credit he is raging against the dying of his light at present.
And should Ugarte start, how will he fare against a side that can capitalize on hesitation better than anyone. The 23-year-old’s last competitive game was for his country at Copa America over the summer. Here he will have to adapt on the go to new team-mates and an unfamiliar set-up.
For now we can only wait and see what develops because the certainties lie beyond this weekend. Ugarte is a player United needed in a position that had to be improved. He tips their summer transfer business from okay into a good window.
Staying with Manchester United’s midfield we find a contradiction in the form of individuals and their collective output.
As stated, Casemiro has been industrious and impactful, while Kobbie Mainoo continues to add to his burgeoning reputation. But the gaps are still there ahead of the back four, clear as day against Fulham, and less so against Brighton but still potentially costly.
Only two big chances combined were conceded in the Reds’ opening two fixtures and that’s commendable but the sheer volume of times their defence were back-pedaling and exposed is proof enough that last season’s biggest problem has not gone away.
Frankly, Ten Hag is fortunate that his team’s opening opponents have been profligate in the final third, too often picking out the wrong pass or dallying in possession, or else he would already – again – be a man under fire.
Cue Mo Salah, a player who has run amok in such spaces several times over in previous encounters. Remarkably the freshly shorn striker has scored 14 goals in 15 past meetings, nine of them at Old Trafford, and if that’s not foreboding enough for the hosts he has also begun this campaign in extremely fine fettle.
Three goal involvements in 173 minutes suggests a revived lease of life under Arne Slot and there are also two key passes and five shots on target to account for too.
Elsewhere, Luis Diaz has converted two in two but it’s the accomplished displays of Alexis Mac Allister that have stood out to date, the midfielder being a key component in a side that is now all about control over intensity.
Should Liverpool successfully lay traps for their hated rival this Sunday it’s worth noting that Mac Allister has so far completed six of his seven long balls.
At the back meanwhile, Virgil Van Dijk and company have kept consecutive clean sheets and comfortably dealt with a combined xG of 0.40. The last time they opened a season with three shut-outs they went on to concede their fewest ever number of Premier League goals (22 in 2018/19).
Will they achieve that hat-trick here? That doesn’t feel likely going off the two combustible, goal-laden affairs we were lucky enough to witness at Old Trafford last season, one in the cup. Extending on this, the last six ‘M62 derbies’ that have taken place on this ground across all comps have averaged five goals a game. Only one of them finished to nil.
Which brings us to the head-to-head record and a surprising revelation. Because think of these two fierce enemies colliding in Manchester and two distinctly different outcomes spring to mind.
There are the multi-goal thrillers that have seen United come out on top. Or there’s the occasions when Liverpool have schooled their historic adversary in their own back-yard, taking ruthless advantage of all the flaws and failings that have accompanied a decade-long decline.
In actual fact, the visitor’s 5-0 deconstruction in 2021 and a 4-2 victory the season before have been their only triumphs in Manchester across the last 19 meetings.
Even so, it’s Liverpool who are most fancied here, for the simple reason that they look the more complete side two games into their new era than United do a season and two games into theirs.
With Ryan Gravenberch impressing at the base of their midfield, and Mac Allister and Dominik Szoboszlai artfully scheming ahead of him it’s hard not to think that a front three of Jota, Salah and Diaz won’t be served up a plethora of chances against a defence that has already faced 24 attempts on their goal this term.
The only concern is that the latter of that trio isn’t exactly clinical.
As for United, Marcus Rashford boasts a terrific record in this fixture but he’s woefully out of sorts. Moreover, they will be reliant on full debutants such as De Ligt and Ugarte to shine and that’s never an exact science.
Don’t discount the possibility of a late goal incidentally. Five of the last seven clashes between these sides at Old Trafford have seen an equalizer or winner scored beyond the 78th minute.
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