IT may not be sexy or glamorous but this weekend’s all-Manchester affair at Wembley will very likely be influenced by fitness levels.

That was certainly the determining factor when these sides met in English football’s ‘curtain-raiser’ back in 2011. In the first-half a Manchester City side nine months away from securing their first Premier League title dominated proceedings and, much the better team, went into the break two goals to the good.

The second period, however, saw them flag and with the Reds looking sharper and brighter a comeback was constructed, United winning out 3-2.

Bringing matters to the present and little has changed from a blue perspective. Pep Guardiola’s mandate has them typically ease their way into each season, all so they can be firing on every cylinder come February, and this has resulted in three consecutive Community Shield losses, on every occasion conceding a late, costly goal as legs weary.

By comparison, and by all accounts, Manchester United have been flying in pre-season training and the underdogs should absolutely be fancied to gain the upper hand in the latter stages of Saturday’s contest.

It’s pertinent to point out that they scored 40.3% of their league goals last term beyond the 70^th minute.

 

Of course, it’s one thing acing rondo sessions and bleep tests and quite another transferring that positive work into games and United’s friendlies in recent weeks are rightly a cause for concern.

Against Liverpool last weekend, they created plenty of half-chances but ultimately were undone by deficiencies in both boxes, wasteful up front and negligent at the back. This in itself highlights just how devastating their two big pre-season injuries have been, with new signing Leny Yoro out for three months and Rasmus Hojlund beginning a defining campaign with a hamstring strain.

In the latter’s place, Jadon Sancho looked like a fish out of water, both in a positional sense and in wearing the club shirt, and the 24-year-old will surely be off to Paris soon after this derby dust-up.

In midfield meanwhile another ghost from United’s recent troubled past was made manifest in the form of Casemiro. The diminishing Brazilian bid farewell to his team-mates in May yet here he was still, losing five of his seven ground duels, misplacing possession on 16 occasions, and being dribbled past three times.

United are in desperate need for some genuine class to partner Kobbie Mainoo in the middle. Should they retain Casemiro, Scott McTominay, or worse, go for the easy option of bringing Sofyan Amrabat back on a permanent basis, they are in grave danger of becoming a tribute act to a side that spiraled them into sustained crisis last season.

 

You may be able to deduce from the popular bet builder suggested above where this preview is going, and what scenario is anticipated to play out in the capital.

Since the Millenium, this fixture has produced a healthy 2.6 goals per game with only the one goalless stalemate and in six of the last eight contests both sides have got onto the scoresheet.

Moreover, City can usually be relied upon to cultivate harm in the final third, failing to convert in just one of their previous ten derby clashes. Last term they fired blanks in only 6% of their fixtures.

As for United getting off the mark too, it’s worth acknowledging that Amad Diallo and Mason Mount have impressed pre-season while Marcus Rashford has been full of running and intent. Add Bruno Fernandes and Alejandro Garnacho into the mix and Erik Ten Hag is blessed with an abundance of options going forward and if he gets his front four right, they can offer up a constant threat.

This is especially true given how porous City have been in America, conceding 11 goals in four and finding themselves cut open far too easily. This was particularly relevant in their opening gamble against Celtic where problems were stark down their left-hand side.

Regardless though, it’s City fancied for the win, their superior quality ensuring that any late comeback by their local rivals is to no avail.

Erling Haaland has been his usual prolific self in the US, bagging four in four. Oscar Bobb has been the stand-out performer, at times electrifying. Jack Grealish is clearly dead-set on putting a disappointing 2023/24 behind him and looks back to his best.

Indeed, don’t be surprised if some damage is done early. United have been breached inside half an hour in their last three friendlies.

 

All of which leaves us in the highly unusual position of putting forward a score prediction, something rarely found on these pages. It’s the start of a new season so why the heck not?

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