AT the risk of being a killjoy ahead of such a grandiose occasion, we should not expect a tremendous number of goals at the Olympiastadion on Sunday evening.
Across 540 minutes of regulation time at the Euros, England have conceded every 135 minutes and scored every 90. Theirs is a defence that has held firm, well-organised for the most part and with John Stones outstanding. At the other end however, Gareth Southgate’s men have accrued fewer shots on target than Belgium or Austria, despite both teams exiting the tournament at the last 16 stage.
Furthermore, the competition as a whole has hardly been resplendent with goals, averaging 2.28 per match. That’s 28 down on the last Euros, with just one game left to play.
The evidence continues to rack up when we delve into the past. Nine of the last ten Euro finals have failed to produce more than two goals prior to extra-time. The last two meetings between these sides in the competition meanwhile have both ended goalless.
Of course, there is an outlier to all of the above. They wear red, attack with alacrity and a good deal of invention, and pose a constant menace due to having two brilliant young wingers.
Spain are arguably the only high ranked side to rock up to Germany and justify every one of their credentials this summer. They have exerted their superiority across all areas of the pitch and been fully-formed from the off. They have comfortably seen off all-but-one of their challengers, often in routine fashion, and when properly tested in their quarter-final clash with the tournament hosts, Luis de la Fuente’s creation showed they had plenty of heart to go with their style and substance.
Naturally enough their big selling point lies in the sheer quality of their personnel but how well-balanced they are is equal to all that.
In midfield, Rodri and Fabian Ruiz have between them every desired attribute in abundance and compliment each other wonderfully. In the full-back roles, Dani Carvajal and Marc Cucurella have full license to bomb forward, the former one of the best in the world at doing so, the latter elevating his stature this summer to a surprising degree.
At their summit, Alvaro Morata drops deep affording Dani Olmo to thrive in the space he vacates and if this seems like a straightforward strategy for any number 10 and centre-forward we’ve all seen how badly Kane and Bellingham have struggled to do likewise in recent weeks.
And then there’s the wingers. Nico Williams, lightning quick and direct. Lamine Yamal, still in nappies when Spain were tiki-taka gods, tearing into anyone or anything that dares to stand before him.
The 16-year-old has completed 30 dribbles in Germany and whipped in the goal of the tournament. Only five players have taken on more shots at Euro 2024.
One of those incidentally is Harry Kane. That’s right. The much-maligned forward deemed to be off the pace and out of sorts has committed to more attempts on goal in Germany than in Euro 2020 when everything was considered right in his world.
But we’ll come to England very shortly. To wrap up our look at Spain the depressing conclusion is that if they turn up and turn it on it will require interference from ill-fortune to prevent La Roja from winning a third Euro championship in five.
“We will have to be perfect.” That was Gareth Southgate’s analysis yesterday in building up to England’s first ever major tournament final on foreign soil and that’s a concern because his team have been anything but to this juncture.
In almost the entirety of their group matches, and for the vast majority of their squeaking past Slovakia and Switzerland, the Three Lions have spluttered, not roared, looking sterile and wholly devoid of oomph.
Must we go through their problems again? Let’s not because in the first-half especially against the Netherlands, we finally witnessed a team remembering who they are, and what they can be. The passing was crisper and had real purpose, aided considerably by having an extra man in the middle of the park which afforded players options whereas in previous contests there were none.
Chances were carved out and the opposition keeper was tested on several occasions. England played on the front-foot and were infinitely better for it.
And yet, for all that such a performance allayed some fears and suppressed pessimism ahead of this weekend, so many of us are anticipating the same scenario playing out.
It’s that the team with the highest xG in the tournament (11.1) will boss possession and tap, tap, tap on the door of a rearguard that boasts the best xG against (0.8 per 90). Eventually they’ll find a way. Perhaps they’ll do so twice-over.
Maybe. That’s undeniably a distinct possibility. But there is a detail that is worth acknowledging, before we resort to stereotypes that are somewhat outdated.
Because Spain are not the tiki-taka gods of yesteryear, leaning into other ways and means instead to get results. Indeed it is England who have had the greater possession this summer (58.8% to 57.3%) and furthermore boast a better pass accuracy. In total, they have completed 391 more balls to feet.
Now of course the explanation for this is simple. La Roja have been progressive in possession while England have played it uber-safe. But let’s assume for one moment that it’s the Three Lions from minute one to 35 against the Netherlands who take to the field in Berlin. Let’s assume that Phil Foden gets on the ball and can make things happen. Let’s hope that muscle memory takes Harry Kane into the box and Saka trumps Cucurella in one of the key match-ups of the night.
To loosely evoke a famous bit of commentary from another major final involving England, there are many who believe Sunday evening to be a foregone conclusion. That it’s all over.
In truth, the ultimate dream is still very much on.
