ENGLAND v SWITZERLAND SUPER BOOST | Was 7/4 – NOW 11/4

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EARLIER this year a 95-year-old, long-retired GP named David Marjot attained an MA in Modern European Philosophy at Kingston University. He is now said to be undertaking a doctorate that won’t be completed until he is 102.

Over in Florida meanwhile Edith Murway-Traina, a great-great-grandmother many times over decided one day – out of pure curiosity – to visit a gym. She began her new fitness regime in her nineties and ended up competing at powerlifting at the age of 99.

It is therefore never too late to change. Can someone please send this as a memo to Gareth Southgate and sign it ‘from the nation’.

Change England must this Saturday or else we all know the consequences. The resulting crushing disappointment and angry post-mortems feel inevitable at this point, as if the script has already been written.

Unless tweaks at an absolute minimum are made to their set-up and personnel – not to mention an uplift seen in application and ambition – the Three Lions will be ponderous and prediction in possession, routinely shoveling the ball to their right because their left-hand side is such a catastrophe. Moreover, without the ball they will be too passive, save for a solitary player making a token gesture at a press.

This we have seen four times already in Germany and by the grace of a footballing deity with a perverse sense of humour it has been enough for England to top their group and navigate a path to the quarter finals. But will it trouble Switzerland, a team that conjures up character traits that Southgate can only dream of?

The Nati are together, in-synch. They work as a collective unit and are attuned to each other’s movements. They are solid at the back and through the middle, with just enough individualism elsewhere to see them through games.

They are everything England are not, but aspire to be. Organised, not disorganized. Progressive, not regressive. Frankly, we could continue doing this until the cows come home.

The Three Lions have averaged 4.5 corners in the tournament so far to Switzerland’s five. Backing the Nati to win the most corners is decent value at 31/20

The sheer scale of England’s failings has hurt the eyes, deflated hope and vexed even the mild-mannered and naturally enough the stats kick us when we’re down.

In the group stage, Kane and co averaged 61 passes before an attempt on goal was made. That’s more than double what France or Spain needed before letting fly.

A little shy of half their possession has taken place in the middle-third of the pitch. No other team matches that, nor would want to.

Without the ball, Serbia, Denmark and Slovenia averaged 28.7 passes before being dispossessed. Take it as read that this is an obscene number.

And then came Slovakia, a continuation of the toil and torpor that only looks better on paper because England were chasing the game from the 25^th minute. Desperate measures improved them and there is no more damning indictment on their pre-tournament preparation than that.

Revision then is a must and one of the most exasperating aspects about Southgate’s reluctance to commit to any meaningful alterations is that so bad have England been it’s actually the safer approach now. To keep things as they are is the maverick move.

Would it surprise if the Swiss took the lead this weekend? Switzerland/Draw is immensely tempting at 12/1

Thankfully at least one change is forced upon him this Saturday. The bad news is that it deprives the team of its best player to date with Marc Guehi suspended.

The Crystal Palace defender went into the tournament viewed as a possible weak link but has impressed in each performance, assisting his side in what has been a rare positive at the Euros, that of maintaining a decent defensive record.

The concession of just two goals has afforded England the opportunity to eke their way through contests against supposedly inferior fare. It’s given them a platform to fail yet still somehow succeed.

Ezri Konsa is the name in the frame to replace Guehi, and with the Villa man having never partnered John Stones before will Southgate be tempted to revert to a back three? Should he do so that would facilitate Kieran Trippier to switch to his natural right side and furthermore benefit from the Newcastle star’s propensity to carve out chances in a wing-back role. Even in a relatively poor campaign, the 33-year-old assisted every two-and-a-half games last term.

Bukayo Saka meanwhile could play on the left, a risk for sure but one that offers reward in greater balance and attacking intent down a side where Switzerland have conceded all of their three goals this summer.

That in turn allows for a three-man midfield of Rice, Mainoo and Foden, the latter given license to roam and pretend he’s wearing sky blue. Even when largely tethered to the left, Phil Foden has completed six dribbles, executed five key passes and had eight attempts on goal.

Further forward, Jude Bellingham can play off Harry Kane, a pairing that hasn’t worked out as hoped but might – and should – with a sturdier structure behind it.

Has that memo been sent yet? Can we add to it?

Dan Ndoye is a good shout at 13/2 to be the first player carded on Saturday, especially if Saka is deployed on his flank. No player on the pitch has committed more fouls in the Euros than the Swiss winger, a meaty 10  

Whatever system Gareth Southgate goes with in Dusseldorf on Saturday evening goals no doubt will be at a premium, a by-product of each team’s conservative instincts over-riding how they are set up.

Pertinently, only two of England’s last 10 fixtures have produced over two goals in regulation time, and exactly the same can be said of Switzerland. These are sides with strong defences that are protected well from disciplined holders in Freuler and Rice.

For either team to concede multiple times this weekend would be wildly out of character.

As for their moderate attacking mandates it is telling that of the 16 teams who have played four games, England and Switzerland are 11^th and 12^th for goal attempts.

A nervy, tight, low-scoring contest awaits then, with extra time a possibility and even pens. Plus la change.

Under 2.5 goals total with under 1.5 goals for England in first half offers up 22/25

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